隔夜美劳工统计局同时发布了大超预期的非农就业，以及略超预期的失业率数据。令人错愕，四座皆惊。详细拆解，没看过的朋友可以点击链接，打开 6.7教链内参，一览究竟。BTC(比特币)面对此数据带来的预期冲击，先短时大幅波动，而后开始跳水，现已跌回7万刀下方，近69k一线。
Around the night, the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics published both high-predicted non-farm employment and slightly over-predicted unemployment data. Dismantled, all four were horrified. Dismantled, friends who had not seen it could click on the link, open up the 6.7 church chain, and take a look at it. The expected impact of this data on the BTC (bitcoin) front, with short and large fluctuations, began to jump back to the bottom of 70,000 cuts, almost 69k.
华尔街机构纷纷配合数据表现，乖乖地把降息预期推迟到了今年年底11月份。教链看着自3月以来横盘至今的BTC，不禁陷入沉思。
Wall Street institutions have responded to the data’s performance by deferring interest-reduction expectations to the end of November this year. The chain looks at the BTC, which has been running since March, and is in a state of contemplation.
看图中教链画的红框。横盘整理通道。从3月份直达11月份?几个月?8个月。惊人的巧合?不知道你想起来什么没?
Look at the red frame of the drawings of the chains in the map. Cross-section of the tunnels. From March to November? Months? Eight months. An amazing coincidence. Don't you remember?
回顾一下教链1.9文章《比特币大伏大起》和4.14文章《炮弹击沉仓位》。你会看到同样是8个月左右的箱体。就是下面这幅图：
Looking back at the church chain 1.9 articles, Bitcoin Volkswagen, and 4.14 articles, " Bombs sank the warehouse ". You can see the same box size for about eight months. This is the following picture:
这幅图，是当年黄金ETF获批上市之后，经历的一段横盘整理时期。箱体长度也是8个多月。
This is the period that followed the release of the gold ETF. The size of the box is more than eight months.
但是我们都知道，当最终箱体向上突破，黄金开启了一段波澜壮阔的5年大牛市。
But as we all know, when the box was finally broken upwards, gold opened a huge five-year-old bull market.
不过，昨 6.7教链内参 还提到，Bitfinex分析师团队称，BTC本轮牛市在年底就要坚定转熊、草草收场了。
Yesterday, however, it was mentioned that the team of Bitfinex analysts said that the BTC's main cattle market was on its way to closing at the end of the year.
于是这里就产生了一个巨大的分歧：2024年底，当美联储调转船头，逆向行驶时，BTC的2025，究竟是一飞冲天，开启狂牛，还是堕入地狱，进入漫漫熊途?
So there was a huge disagreement: at the end of 2024, when the Fed turned its head and turned backwards, was the BTC's 2025 going into the sky, turning on the ox, or was it going to hell, into a long bear?
Bitfinex的观点，教链感觉，逻辑有些不够通顺。这在内参文中已经做了解剖，不再赘述。
Bitfinex's point of view, the church chain feels that logic isn't good enough. It's anatomy that's done in the context of the essay, and it's not repeated.
2025牛市、2026熊市，则是 幂律的标准模型，也是4年减半周期的驱动节奏。不过，每一轮周期，都有人会批评这过于刻舟求剑。
Cows 2025 and Bears 2026 are standard models of discipline and drive the four-year cycle by half. However, each cycle is criticized for being too aggressive.
实际上，这也是事关本次不同寻常的产量减半周期的一大迷思，即 2024减半之辩：涨幅消退，还是超级周期?
In fact, it is also a big myth about this unusual cycle of halving production, namely, the argument for halving 2024: is the increase decreasing or the supercycle?
毕竟，2024年4月份BTC的这一轮“黄金减半”，让BTC的“资产硬度”大幅超越了黄金，成为地球上已知硬度最高的资产。
After all, in April 2024, this round of BTC & ldquo; halving gold & rdquo; allowing BTC & ldquo; asset hardness & rdquo; and significantly surpassing gold and becoming the highest known asset of hardness on Earth.
3月份的7万刀，是年初美现货ETF获批上市给送上去的。4月份的产量减半所带来的供应紧缩效应，或许还没有得到体现。
The $70,000 cut in March was marketed early in the year by the United States spot ETF. The supply contraction effect of reducing production by half in April may not yet be reflected.
过往每次减半，都会在1年半左右的时间把牛市送上快乐的巅峰。然后精准地用一年左右的时间“去杠杆”，彻底洗盘。
Each time in the past, it's about a year and a half to put the cattle market on a happy peak. Then it's about a year or so & & ldquao; deleveraging & rdquao; and thoroughly washing the dishes.
精确地像一个时钟。滴滴答答。
Exactly like a clock. Tick-tock.
每一次，都有人试图证明，BTC的4年周期不过是宏观外因的巧合，而不是减半内因的效应。但是每一次，所有试图扰乱BTC内生时钟和周期节奏的尝试都失败了。
In each case, there is an attempt to prove that the BTC's four-year cycle is merely a coincidence of macronegative causes, not a half-percent effect. But in each case, all attempts to disrupt the birth clock and cyclical rhythm within the BTC failed.
2020年底-2021年初的狂牛，碾过空头爆仓数不清的尸体。2021年初三箭资本的永恒牛市，如今已无人记起。2022年夏初，教链认为BTC可以顶着美联储的缩表复苏走牛，但直到2023年才开始应验，市场早已物是人非。
At the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, the mad cow ran over countless bodies. The Eternal Cow City, which had three arrow capital at the beginning of 2021, was no longer remembered. At the beginning of the summer of 2022, the religious chain thought that BTC could recover the cow from the US Federal Reserve, but it was not until 2023 that it began to be tested that the market was already different.
BTC一直在倔犟地在减半前1.5年见底，减半后1.5年见顶，3年上行、1年下行，4年周期。这一次，它时钟一样精确的节奏，会被打破吗?
BTC has been at the bottom of 1.5 years before halving, peaking 1.5 years after halving, up to three years, down to one year, and down to a four-year cycle. This time, its clock is as precise as the rhythm, and will it be broken?
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