比特币达到100000美元？这些你要了解 那些预测“我们再也不会看到BTC跌破10000美元了” 的分析师又被打脸了。2月20日凌晨5时，BTC价格在短时间内从高...
资讯 2024-07-02 阅读:94 评论:0
那些预测“我们再也不会看到BTC跌破10000美元了” 的分析师又被打脸了。
The analysts who predicted that "we'll never see the BTC fall down by $10,000" were hit again.
2月20日凌晨5时，BTC价格在短时间内从高点10200美元跌至最低9350美元，使得24小时BTC合约市场爆仓3.9亿美元。
At 5 a.m. on 20 February, BTC prices fell from a high of $10,200 to a low of $9350 in a short period of time, resulting in a 24-hour BTC contract market crash of $390 million.
数据表明，“阴晴不定”的BTC价格走势不是人人都可以预测的。当你以为突破10000美元关口就有希望创下历史新高的时候，一根大阴线下来，分分钟让你回到解放前。
The data show that the price movement of the BTC is not predictable by everyone. When you think you can break the $10,000 threshold with the hope of reaching an all-time high, a big negative line comes down and brings you back to pre-liberation in minutes.
24H BTC价格变化
24H BTC price changes
但价格长期看涨依旧是币圈人的共识。
But long-term price increases remain the consensus of currency circles.
2020年，最值得期待的就是BTC第三次减半事件，由于前两次减半后币价迎来了暴涨，因此现在大家都有了“减半利好”的预期，认为第三次减半也会带来币价大涨进而引发新一轮牛市。
In 2020, the most promising event was the third halving of the BTC, which, as a result of the sharp rise in currency prices since the first two halves, is now expected to lead to a “half-per-cent boom”, with the expectation that the third reduction would also lead to a sharp increase in currency prices, which would trigger a new round of cattle.
下面，我们就来分析BTC价格会上涨的几个因素。
Now, let's look at a few factors that could increase BTC prices.
稀缺性和安全性
Scarcity and security
目前比特币每10分钟产出12.5 BTC，每日产出12.5*6*24=1800 BTC，第三次减半后，每10分钟产出6.25 BTC，每日产出6.25*6*24=900 BTC。
Bitcoin currently produces 12.5 BTC per 10-minute, 12.5*6*24 per day = 1800 BTC, and, after the third reduction by half, 6.25 BTC per 10-minute output and 6.25*6*24 per day = 900 BTC.
由于每个区块的奖励占已挖出币量（当前挖出的BTC＞1800万枚）的比例是递减的，因此BTC变得更加稀缺。
The BTC is all the more scarce because the ratio of incentives per block to (the current number of BTCs > 18 million) is diminishing.
每一个新BTC在流通中所占的比例越来越小，对市场的影响也越来越小，这种日益加剧的稀缺性推高了价格。
The increasing scarcity of each new BTC, which has a smaller share of circulation and a smaller impact on the market, pushes prices up.
而价格上涨则鼓舞了矿工们的 挖 矿 热情，全网算力的增加在一定程度上保障了BTC网络的安全性，而安全措施的加强也将推动价格上涨。
And the rise in prices has encouraged miners to dig and dig, and the increase in full-network computing has ensured to some extent the safety of the BTC network, and the increase in security measures will boost the price increase.
因此，稀缺性增加了安全性，日趋增强的安全性和稀缺性将在长期内提高BTC的价格。
As a result, the scarcity of increases security, and increasing security and scarcity will increase BTC prices in the long term.
供需关系
Supply and demand relationship
任何商品都因稀缺性而有价值，对于总量恒定的BTC来说更是如此。
Any commodity is valuable because of its scarcity, especially for the BTC, which is a constant stock.
最著名的BTC价值分析模型是Plan B的储量-产量模型（S2F模型），简单来说就是稀缺性赋予了价值。
The most famous BTC value analysis model is Plan B's stock-production model (S2F model), which, in short,
注：比特币S2F模型发布于2019年3月，它受到BTC支持者和投 资 者的欢迎。S2F的计算方式是存量BTC数量除以BTC年产量，即Stock/Flow。
Note: The Bitcoin S2F model was released in March 2019 and was welcomed by BTC supporters and investors. S2F is calculated by dividing the stock of BTC by BTC annual production, namely Stock/Flow.
BTC稀缺度S2F模型在拟合BTC历史数据后，认为BTC价格=0.18*(S2F^3.3)，拟合结果和BTC价格历史数据如下图所示。
The BTC S2F model, after collating BTC historical data, considered BTC prices = 0.18* (S2F.3/3.3), and the results and BTC price historical data are shown in the graph below.
2020年BTC减半后，S2F值升至约56。【BTC当前的S2F值为27，即1800万（目前已经挖出的BTC数量）/657000（当前每年产出的BTC数量），第三次减半后，其稀缺度值升至约56】其稀缺性也将被进一步放大。
The S2F value rose to about 56 after the BTC was halved in 2020. [BTC's current S2F value is 27 million (the number of BTCs that have been excavated) and 657,000 (the number of BTCs that are currently produced each year) and its scarcity will be further increased by the third reduction.
按此公式计算，BTC价格有望达到10万美金。
Based on this formula, BTC prices are expected to reach $100,000.
商品的S2F值越高，说明市场上新增的供应就越少，那么市场想要获得同等数量商品所要付出的成本就会增加。
The higher the S2F value of commodities, the smaller the supply that is added to the market, the higher the cost that the market will have to pay to obtain the same quantity of goods.
这个结论与加密货币投资机构摩根溪（Morgan Creek Digital）联合创始人Anthony Pompliano的观点不谋而合。Pomp认为，由于供应有限和需求增加，BTC的价格到2021年底将达到 100000 美元。
This conclusion coincides with the views of Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital. Pomp argues that BTC prices will reach $100,000 by the end of 2021 due to limited supply and increased demand.
他的原话为：
His exact words are:
BTC刚刚达到 10000 美元。我仍然认为到2021年12月底，BTC将达到100000美元。因为有限的供应量，需求的增加。时间会证明一切。
BTC has just reached $10000. I still think that by the end of December 2021, BTC will have reached $100,000. Because of the limited supply, demand increases. Time will prove everything.
根据简单供需曲线，就可以理解BTC涨价的基本逻辑。目前存量BTC约1800万枚，本次减半后，每日产出的BTC降为900枚，未来还会越来越低。
On the basis of a simple supply and demand curve, the basic logic of BTC price increases can be understood. The current stock of BTC is about 18 million, and after this halving, the daily output of BTC is down to 900 and will continue to decline in the future.
所以，BTC的供给曲线相当陡峭。一旦BTC需求曲线上升，比特币价格就可能大幅攀升。
So the BTC supply curve is quite steep. Once the BTC demand curve rises, bitcoin prices are likely to rise significantly.
这也就是为什么大家所期待的“减半行情”对于BTC供应和S2F很重要。
This is why the expected “50-per-cent deal” is important for BTC supply and S2F.
对于囤币党来说，BTC的减半行情无疑是超级利好。只要能囤得住，收 益 也大概率会跑赢大部分金融资产，2019年的数据就是一个很好的证明。
The BTC’s 50-percent cut-off is certainly a great advantage for the money hoarding party. The data for 2019 are good evidence of how much of the financial assets can be hoarded, and the benefits are likely to run.
2019年BTC与其他资产涨幅对比
BTC as compared to other asset increases in 2019
囤币是一种最简单但又最难的获取收益的方式，因为大部分人还是喜欢”追涨杀跌“，会忍不住想要将币拿到交易所进行操作，但是最终发现自己靠运气挣来的钱总会凭本事亏掉。
Money hoarding is one of the simplest but most difficult ways of reaping the benefits, because most people still like to “stalk and fall” and want to take the money to the exchange to operate, but eventually find that the money they earn on their own luck will always be lost on their own.
而HASHBOX云算力 挖 矿 就可以很好的解决这个问题，在HASHBOX选择云算力合约，每日获取BTC收益，等大牛市来临时再提到交易所卖出，既不用担心短期内币价的暴涨暴跌，又可以缓解资金流动压力，还能成为坚定的Hodler。
And the HASHBOX cloud power to dig up the mine would do the right thing by choosing cloud power contracts in HASHBOX, receiving daily BTC returns, waiting for Big Cow to come and mention the exchange sales temporarily, without worrying about short-term booms and falls in domestic currency prices, easing the pressure on financial flows, and becoming a firm Hodler.
BTC终将突破100000美元，希望那时候的你手中还有筹码可以分享这波红利。
The BTC will finally make a breakthrough of $100,000, and hopefully you'll still have the leverage to share the dividend.
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