备受资本追逐的元宇宙概念，已经让许多相关或不相关的公司获得了意料之外的投资，资金疯狂的涌入游戏、AR、VR等相关行业，大有元宇宙明天就能够建成并且被全世界用户所接受的态势。
The concept of the meta-cosm, which is subject to capital pursuit, has already enabled many related or unrelated companies to obtain unexpected investments in industries such as the mad inflow game, AR, VR, etc., where the universe can be built tomorrow and accepted by users around the world.
元宇宙突然爆发
A sudden eruption of the dollar universe
一个风口突然爆发，那就是元宇宙。那么，什么是元宇宙，为什么会突然爆发，前景究竟又如何呢？
A wind blows out, and that's the meta-cosmos. So, what is the meta-cosmos, why all of a sudden? What are the prospects?
据未来智库的资料显示，元宇宙（Metaverse）最早起源于科幻小说，定义了一个平行于现实世界的虚拟世界。科幻作家尼尔?斯蒂芬森在1992年的小说《雪崩》中首次提出Metaverse的概念。后续的《黑客帝国》《刀剑神域》《头号玩家》等知名影视作品中也拥有类似元宇宙概念的设定。从字面来看，元宇宙Metaverse由Meta（超越）+Universe（宇宙）两部分组成，即通过技术能力在现实世界基础上搭建一个平行且持久存在的虚拟世界，现实中的人以数字化身的形式进入虚拟时空中生活，同时在虚拟世界中还拥有完整运行的社会和经济系统。从这份解释来推断，落实到股市上，应该就是虚拟现实概念。
According to the future think tank, Metaverse originated in science fiction, defining a virtual world parallel to the real world. The concept of Metaverse was first introduced by science fiction writer Neil Stephenson in 1992 in the novel Avalanche. The next Hacker Empire, The Swordsword Door, The First Player, also has a concept similar to the meta-cosm. In literal terms, the metaverse is made up of two parts of Meta (exceeding) and Universe (cosmos), namely, a virtual world built on the real world by technological capabilities that create a parallel and lasting virtual world, in which people enter virtual time air life in digital form, and in which they have a fully functioning social and economic system.
元宇宙之所以会突然爆发，可能与两个变量有关：
The reason for the sudden eruption of the meta-cosmos may be related to two variables:
一是产品放量。根据IDC数据，上半年Facebook的Oculus VR产品全球出货量同比增长297%至226万台。据机构预测2021年出货量可达800万台左右，歌尔股份则是主要的代工企业。
According to IDC data, Facebook’s Oculus VR product has grown by 297 to 2.26 million worldwide in the first half of the year. According to the agency, it can reach about 8 million in 2021, and Gore shares are the main surrogates.
二是大厂押注。猎云网消息称，有多家媒体报道，字节跳动将以50亿元人民币收购Pico正式入局VR。彭博社援引知情人士的说法称，相关谈判仍在进行中，双方还没有做出最终决定。一位接近交易的人士表示：“收购金额或许能达到15亿美金（折合人民币约90亿元）。”7月29日，扎克伯格在财报电话会议上宣布，Facebook将在五年内转型成为元宇宙(Metaverse)公司，并从各业务部门抽调得力干将推动落实。8月19日，马克·扎克伯格邀请媒体记者体验了Facebook旗下虚拟办公空间Horizon Workrooms的最新测试版本，感受虚拟和真实交融的沉浸式办公体验。
On 29 July, Zuckerberg announced at the finance conference that Facebook would be transformed into a Metaverse company within five years, and that it would be driven by the use of leverage from the various business sectors. On 19 August, Mark Zuckerberg invited media journalists to experience the latest test version of the virtual office space, Horizon Workrooms, under the Facebook flag.
那么，这个产业前景如何？招商证券认为，目前VR技术在产业应用领域不断地扩大，产业链条不断地完善，据IDC预测，2020-2024 五年期间，VR/AR终端出货量增速将达到约86%，全球虚拟现实产业规模年均增长率将达到约54%。随着新技术的不断开发，虚拟现实元宇宙相关产业或将迎来爆发。
So, what are the prospects for this industry? The securities offer the idea that VR technology is currently expanding in industrial applications, that the industrial chain is constantly improving, and that, according to the IDC, VR/AR terminals will grow by about 86% over the five-year period 2020-2024, and that the global virtual reality industry will grow at an average annual rate of about 54%.
据WIND数据显示，目前整个虚拟现实板块的市值高达1.8万亿。不过也有分析人士认为，在目前游戏产业遭遇压力的背景之下，虚拟现实是否能够持续爆发也是需要谨慎的事。
According to WIND data, the market value of the entire virtual reality plate is currently 1.8 trillion. But there are also analysts who argue that, in the current context of stress in the game industry, it is also prudent whether virtual reality can continue to erupt.
2021年元宇宙概念十分火爆,持续引热科技圈和创投圈。一些科技龙头和创投机构,则更早看到了元宇宙的发展前景,以抢占下一个互联网时代的先机。其中,Roblox凭借游戏平台使用户能够创建自己的虚拟世界和体验,在700万游戏开发者和付费用户之间完美组建了经济生态圈,被认为探索出最接近“元宇宙”的商业模式。紧接着科技巨头纷纷下场,瞬间把元宇宙的热度,推到了高潮点,业内认为元宇宙是互联网和计算行业的未来。
The 2021 Won cosmopolitan concept is so hot that it continues to heat the technosphere and create circles. Some technology leaders and creative institutions see the future of the metacosystem earlier in order to pre-empt the next Internet era. Among them, Roblox, with its game platform, enables users to create their own virtual world and experience, perfected the economic biosphere between 7 million game developers and payers, and is seen as exploring the business models that are closest to the metacosystem.
那么元宇宙什么时候可以大规模普及？
So when can the Woncosmos spread on a large scale?
元宇宙如何到来？
How's the meta-cosmos coming?
随着市场对于元宇宙的理解逐渐加深，可以肯定的是从消费互联网到产业互联网都将在未来迎接线上线下一体化的元宇宙时代。市场主流观点认为元宇宙模式将会是全新的泛娱乐模式，元宇宙所特有的沉浸，实时，多元的特色模式会更受到市场的欢迎与肯定。
As the market’s understanding of the meta-cosmos deepens, it is certain that the consumer-to-industrial Internet will in the future meet the age of the meta-cosmos, where the dominant view of the market is that the meta-cosm model will be a completely new pan-recreation model, unique to the meta-cosm, immersed in real time, and diversified patterns of identity will be more welcome and positive for the market.
目前元宇宙概念面临的最大问题仍然是技术层面的问题。元宇宙超时空的社交需求和高强度的沉浸式体验需要能稳定持续的处理海量即时数据的通讯技术和运算能力。5G通讯技术所带来的传输速率大幅提升，时延减少以及连接数提升等通讯能力升级，以及GPU浮点计算能力，云计算能力，边缘计算能力等算力上的不断升级都将推动元宇宙的发展。
The greatest problem with the meta-cosm concept is still at the technical level. The social needs of the meta-cosmos and the intense immersion experience require a steady and sustained flow of communication technology and computing capabilities for the processing of big-time data.
从硬件技术层面来看，普通的手机端和pc端现今都无法良好的完成元宇宙所需的拟真与沉浸的任务。因此VR/AR技术所能拥有的的3D显示，高分辨率水准，大视场角的设备基础，进一步提升了直观体感交互，是目前最佳的现实与虚拟世界接口。因此VR/AR技术的发展直接影响到元宇宙行业的现状。
At the hardware technology level, the normal cellular end and pc end are not today able to perform well the fictional and immersion tasks required by the meta-cosm. So the 3Ds that VR/AR technology can have show that the high resolution level, the equipment base of the large viewing angles, further enhances the intuitive interaction and is currently the best reality to interface with the virtual world. So the development of VR/AR technology directly affects the state of the meta-cosm industry.
VR/AR技术现状及产业链
VR/AR state of technology and industrial chain
VR与AR是两种不同形态的的产品
VR and AR are two different forms of product.
VR：虚拟现实，产品定义为在密闭空间环境下输出视频等内容。因此VR设备不具有很强的移动性——用户需要在封闭空间小范围移动，以此确保用户的安全。
VR: Virtual reality, the product is defined as the output of video, etc., in a closed space environment. VR devices are therefore not highly mobile - users need to move in small areas of closed space to ensure user safety.
AR：增强显示，产品定义为在现实的开放环境下，输出相关视频等内容，同时需要与现实环境进行实时互动。
AR: Enhancement shows that products are defined as the output of relevant video, etc., in a realistic open environment, requiring real-time interaction with the real environment.
发展历程
The journey to development
VR/AR产业共经历了三个不同的时期：
The VR/AR industry has gone through three different periods:
2012-2016年属于期望膨胀期，彼时VR/AR概念刚进入大众视野，受到了过高的期望;
The period 2012 - 2016 is a period of high expectations, while the VR/AR concept has just entered public view and is subject to high expectations;
2017-2018年的产业低谷期。产业实现了硬件不断升级和内容不断累积的重要过程，打破了产业内部“内容匮乏—泡沫破灭—硬件销售萎靡—无人投资”的恶性循环。
The industrial slump of 2017-2018. The industry has achieved an important process of upgrading hardware and building up content, breaking the vicious circle of “lack of content – bubble collapse – weak hardware sales – uninvested.”
2018-2019VR/AR产业进入复苏期，随着网络通信技术的升级，光学技术的迭代，VR/AR产品性价比不断提升，优质内容也开始走入大众视野。
The 2018-2019 VR/AR industry is entering a recovery period, and with the upgrading of network communication technologies, the iterative nature of optical technology, the value of VR/AR products has been increasing, and quality content has begun to move into public view.
如今VR和AR行业进入高速发展期，设备出货量和市场规模有望实现高速增长。从2019年起，随着光学技术的迭代、网络环境升级、产品体验升级同时性价比提升以及热门VR内容的推出，驱动VR/AR行业重回增长快车道。根据IDC预测，2020年全球AR和VR出货量达706万台，而未来4年CAGR有望达到81.5%。同时根据BCG和Mordor Intelligence预测，2024年全球AR和VR市场规模有望扩张至2969亿美元，2021-2024年CAGR可达113%。
Since 2019, the VR/AR sector has been driving back to the fast-growing fast track with the succession of optical technologies, the upgrading of the network environment, the upgrading of product experience and the introduction of popular VR content. According to IDC, the global volume of AR/VR shipments reached 7.06 million in 2020, while the CAG is expected to reach 81.5% in the next four years.
VR/AR产业链
VR/AR Industrial Chain
VR/AR行业的产业链环节和智能手机大体相似，包括硬件、软件、内容制作与分发以及应用与服务四个环节，主要区别在于智能手机应用面向个人消费者，VR/AR除个人消费者外，还渗透到各行各业的应用中，因此在应用环节相对复杂很多。
The VR/AR industry has broadly similar industrial chains and smartphones, including hardware, software, content production and distribution, and applications and services. The main difference is that smartphone applications are aimed at individual consumers, and VR/AR, in addition to individual consumers, permeates applications in all walks of life and is therefore relatively complex in application.
硬件环节：按照功能划分可分为终端设备、配套外设以及上游的核心器件三部分。终端设备分为PC 端设备、移动端设备和一体机三种类型。配套外设包括手柄、摄像头（全景摄像头、）和体感设备（数据衣、指环、触控板、触/力觉反馈装置等）等。上游核心器件则包括芯片（CPU、GPU、移动SOC 等）、传感器（图像、声音、动作捕捉传感器等）、显示屏（LCD、OLED、AMOLED、微显示器等显示屏及其驱动模组）、光学器件（光学镜头、衍射光学元件、影像模组、三维建模模组等）和通信模块（射频芯片、Wi-Fi/蓝牙芯片、NFC 芯片等）等。
Hardware components: Functionally divided into end equipment, accessories, and upstream cores. The terminal equipment is divided into three types: PC end-of-end equipment, mobile end equipment, and a single machine. The accessories include handles, cameras (overview cameras,) and body sensors (datacoats, rings, touch panels, touch/power feedback devices, etc.). The upstream cores include chips (CPU, GPU, mobile SOC, etc.), sensors (image, sound, motion capture sensors, etc.), display screens (LCD, OLED, AMOLED, micro-screens, etc.) and their drive modules, optical devices (optic lenses, diffusing optical elements, image modelling, three-dimensional modelling units, etc.) and communication modules (radio-frequency chips, Wi-Fi/Bluetooth chips, NFC chips, etc.).
软件环节：包括支撑软件和软件开发工具包。支撑软件包括UI、OS（安卓、Windows等）和中间件（Conduit、VRWorks等）。软件开发工具包包括SDK 和3D引擎。
Software links: include support software and software development toolkits. Support software includes UI, OS (Andrew, Windows, etc.) and intermediate (Conduit, VRWorks, etc.). Software development toolkits include SDK and 3D engines.
内容制作与分发环节：内容制作包括虚拟现实游戏、视频、直播和社交内容的制作。内容分发则是指应用程序平台（商店）。
Content production and distribution: Content production includes virtual reality games, videos, live broadcasts, and social content production.
应用和服务环节：包括制造、教育、旅游、医疗商贸、娱乐等多领域。
Applications and services: These include manufacturing, education, tourism, medical trade, recreation, etc.
VR市场进入放量阶段
VR market entering the release phase
整体来看，VR产业链上游供应链已经趋于完整，光学、微型现实、主芯片、结构件以及代工厂等都可以提供成熟稳定的产品供应。VR下游生态日渐完善，各类游戏大作推动VR活跃用户增加。
Overall, the VR upstream supply chain has become complete, providing mature and stable product supplies such as optical, micro-realities, master chips, structural elements, and surrogate plants. VR downstream ecology is improving, and games are driving an increase in VR-active users.
受益宅经济，VR产业在20年迎来爆发式增长，2020年全球VR出货量670万台，同比增长72%。21年预计全球出货量达到约800万台，22年预计1480万台，迈过最重要门槛。
The beneficiary residential economy, the VR industry, saw a boom in 20 years, with 6.7 million global VR shipments in 2020, an increase of 72 per cent over the previous year. Global shipments are expected to reach about 8 million in 21 and 14.8 million in 22 years, surpassing the most important threshold.
VR未来作为重要的家庭娱乐终端，主打游戏功能的沉浸式VR在C端的市场空间可近似比拟游戏主机市场。预计VR在未来五年出货量也有望达到5000万台。除主打游戏市场沉浸类VR外，观影类VR以及各类B端应用落地场景逐渐成熟，特别是观影类VR，潜在目标人群6亿左右，目前行业正在快速成长。
VR is expected to deliver 50 million units over the next five years. With the exception of VR, which is a major domestic entertainment terminal, the visual VR and various B-side applications are becoming more mature, especially the visual VR, which is currently growing rapidly, with a potential target population of around 600 million.
目前市场主要VR厂商有Oculus、DPVR、Pico和HTC等。其中Facebook旗下的Oculus市占率超过50%，而HTC和SONY份额下降较快。主要原因在于当前两公司的在售产品款式较老，同时又即将发布新款产品，导致大部分消费者选择观望。凭借Sony在游戏行业内多年的积累以及出色内容产出，其可能是Oculus短期内最有力竞争者之一。
The main VR producers in the market today are Oculus, DPVR, Pico, and HTC. The city of Oculus, under the Facebook banner, accounts for more than 50%, while the share of HTC and SONY has declined faster.
AR市场遭遇瓶颈期
AR Market bottleneck period
AR行业与VR不同，AR产业链上游还未攻破核心零部件和技术的瓶颈期。微显示方面因为AR需要与现实环境的高互动性，所以需要高亮度的微显示功能产品，目前全球产品端中Micro LED为最佳解决方案，但是Micro LED还处于技术攻克阶段，无论是衬底、外延材料还是单片、集成驱动都还未有成熟的解决方案。主芯片方面目前市场主流使用高通骁龙8系列芯片，并没有针对于AR技术设计的主芯片。
The AR industry, unlike VR, has yet to break the bottlenecks in core parts and technologies upstream of the AR industry chain. Micro-indicatives require high-intensity micro-functional products because AR needs to interact with the real environment. MicroLED is currently the best solution on the global product end, but MicroLED is still in the technology offensive phase, and there are no mature solutions, be it bottom line, extension material or single, integration drive.
下游产业也并不成熟，产品缺乏核心定位，产品策略也因为C端销量的不达预期逐渐走向B端。大部分厂商纷纷调转方向至产品应用市场。虽然目前AR行业处于瓶颈期，但是苹果，Facebook等科技巨头依旧认为其是未来的重点方向。苹果自2006年起申请数百项AR相关产品专利并陆续收购十几家AR相关科技企业。Facebook于2017年宣布AR眼镜计划，并正在研究AR眼镜配套腕带等相关产品。
The downstream industry is also immature, the product lacks core positioning, and the product strategy is gradually moving to the end of B because C end sales are not expected. Most manufacturers are turning to the product application market.
VR/AR行业的发展前景
VR/AR sector development prospects
随着5G技术的突破，与VR/AR产业相关的基础设施逐渐完善，“硬件＋软件＋内容＋应用”系统越发成熟同时也大量拉动了出货量。受疫情影响，2021年产业链上游各个环节的缺货现象仍然存在。根据IDC数据显示，Facebook等主要公司面临的全球性半导体短缺现象预计将影响未来2-3个季度的硬件出货程度。
With the breakthrough of the 5G technology, the infrastructure associated with the VR/AR industry has gradually improved, and the hardware+software+content+application system has grown more mature and has boosted the volume of shipments. As a result of the epidemic, the shortage of goods at all levels of the industrial chain has persisted in 2021. According to IDC data, the global semiconductor shortage faced by major companies, such as Facebook, is expected to affect the level of hardware delivery over the next two to three quarters.
根据以上因素，海通证券预测2021年全年VR头显出货量将突破1000万大关，2021-2023年出货量复合增长率达40%、VR市场规模复合增长率达31%，AR眼镜出货量复合增长率将达52%，AR市场规模复合增长率达39%。VR/AR市场整体规模2021-2023年市场复合增长率将达32%。VR行业奇点将至，AR行业静待爆发。
On the basis of the above factors, Seaton Securities projects that VR exports will exceed the 10 million mark in 2021, with a combined 40 per cent growth rate in 2021-2023, a combined 31 per cent growth rate in VR markets, a combined 52 per cent growth rate in AR glasses and a 39 per cent growth rate in AR markets. The combined market growth rate for VR/AR markets as a whole will be 32 per cent in 2021-2023.
但要实现VR/AR沉浸式体验，仍有以下痛点亟待解决：
However, in order to achieve the VR/AR immersion experience, the following pain points remain to be addressed:
VR/AR设备的视觉舒适度是长久以来的痛点，电子和光学元件的升级有望进一步提升；
The visual comfort of VR/AR equipment is a long-standing pain point, and further upgrading of electronic and optical components is expected;
除了视觉提升外，需要增加触觉或脑机接口；
In addition to visual enhancement, there is a need for additional tactile or brain interfaces;
进一步轻量无线简便化，包括无线传输摆脱链接束缚、更加轻便提升佩戴体验；
(b) Further light wireless simplicity, including freeing wireless transmission from link constraints and lightening the wearing experience;
内容端生态仍需不断丰富。
The content-based ecology still needs to be enriched.
资料来源： 券商中国，发现报告
Source: Certificater, China, Discovery Report.
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