黄金持续强势！
Gold continues to be strong!
3月5日，国际金价再度站上2100美元，黄金股也纷纷大涨，截至收盘，中润资源涨停，玉龙股份涨近7%，山东黄金涨近5%。黄金股ETF涨幅达2.68%，居全市场ETF第一。
On 5 March, international gold prices again stood at $2,100, and gold stocks rose sharply, with China's reserves rising by almost 7 per cent and Shandong's gold stock rising by almost 5 per cent. Gold shares rose by 2.68 per cent to the top of the market.
2023年金价走出了一轮波澜壮阔的行情，对于2024年黄金表现的后续展望，机构表示，在降息周期与全球不确定性的背景下，对2024年黄金市场保持乐观态度。
With regard to the follow-up outlook on gold performance in 2024, the agency stated that it was optimistic about the gold market in 2024 against the backdrop of interest-rate reduction cycles and global uncertainty.
国际金价站上2100美元
$2,100 at the international gold station.
3月5日，伦敦现货金价冲高至2119.8美元/盎司，触及三个月以来的最高点，已十分接近去年12月初创下的历史峰值2146美元/盎司。隔夜COMEX黄金期货价格盘中冲高至2130美元/盎司。有分析人士认为，这是受到市场对美联储可能在6月降息的押注增加的推动。
On March 5, London’s spot price jumped to US$ 2119.8 per ounce, reaching its highest point in three months, and was close to the historic peak of US$ 2146 per ounce, which was set in early December last year. The night-to-night gold futures price plate of COMEX rose to US$ 2130 per ounce. According to analysts, this was driven by an increase in the market’s bet on the Fed’s potential interest reduction in June.
A股市场上，3月5日，黄金股集体收涨，截至收盘，中润资源涨停，玉龙股份涨近7%，山东黄金涨近5%，四川黄金涨超3%，紫金矿业、赤峰黄金、中金黄金涨超2%。
On the A market, on 5 March, there was a collective rise in the gold stock, with China's reserves rising by almost 7 per cent as of the closing date, Shandong gold rising by almost 5 per cent, Sichuan gold rising by more than 3 per cent, and Purple mining, Red Peak gold and Chinese gold rising by more than 2 per cent.
与此同时，国内足金首饰价格也突破高位，3月4日，多家黄金珠宝品牌当日国内足金首饰金价均突破636元/克。3月5日，周大福官网当日金价显示，足金（首饰、摆件类）金价已升至 645元/克。
At the same time, the price of gold and jewellery in the country rose from $636/g on 4 March to $636/g on 4 March. On 5 March, Zhou Dafu’s daily gold price showed that the price of gold and gold (premises and pieces) had risen to $645/g.
博时黄金ETF基金经理王祥认为，上周五公布的制造业PMI与密西根大学消费者调查均表现疲弱，也再次刺激市场对宽松政策抱有更高的期待，黄金由此显著拉升，并接近突破窗口。
Wang Xiang, the manager of the Gold ETF Fund at Boh, argued that the manufacturing PMI and the University of Michigan consumer surveys, which were published last Friday, were both weak and rekindled the market's higher expectations of easing policies, resulting in a significant rise in gold and nearing the window.
此外，黄金股上市公司中国黄金3月5日发布最新投资者关系活动表显示，公司在2024年2月27、28、29日，3月1日接连举行调研活动，吸引了鹏华基金、国金基金、汇丰晋信基金、信诚基金、交银施罗德基金、东证资管、光大保德信基金、平安养老等多家机构参与调研。2月以来，该公司先后于1、5、6、21、22日举行调研活动，均吸引多家机构参与。
In addition, on 5 March, the gold-marketing company, China Gold, published an updated schedule of investor relations activities, according to which on 27, 28, 29 February and 1 March 2024, the company held successive research events that attracted the participation of several institutions, including the Ponhua Fund, the National Gold Fund, the HSBC Fund, the Trust Fund, the Silver Schroeder Fund, the Eastern Censorship Fund, the Kim Dae-Sin Foundation, and the Safe Aged Aged. Since February, the company has conducted research events that attracted the participation of a number of institutions.
永赢黄金股ETF基金经理刘庭宇表示，黄金产业的上市公司股价与金价高度相关、但涨跌弹性高于实物黄金，可以说是黄金价格的“放大器”。截至2023年底，根据wind数据统计，过去五年黄金股相比金价（上海金）的贝塔约1.2倍、金价上行区间约1.3倍，中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数过去五年跑赢上海金近5个点、跑赢伦敦金价超13个点。金矿企业的扩产和杠杆效应、黄金珠宝商的渠道扩张和品牌集中度提升贡献黄金股的超额收益。
According to Liu Tingyu, manager of the Ever-wint Gold ETF Fund, the stock prices of listed companies in the gold industry are highly correlated with gold prices, but their elasticity is higher than that of real gold, which can be described as a “magnifier” of gold prices. By the end of 2023, according to Wind data, the gold stock had been about 1.2 times as high as the gold price (Shanghai gold), about 1.3 times as high as the gold price in the past five years, and the Chinese gold industry stock index in the deep port had won nearly 5 points in Shanghai and 13 points in London.
黄金股ETF领涨市场
Gold stock ETF-up market
3月5日，黄金股ETF(517520)涨幅达2.68%，居全市场ETF第一。该ETF成立于2023年10月24日，截至最新收盘日创出净值新高。
On 5 March, the gold unit ETF (517520) increased by 2.68 per cent, ranking first on the market. The ETF was established on 24 October 2023 and reached a net increase as of the latest harvest date.
值得一提的是，随着黄金投资的热度不断攀升，公募加速布局黄金赛道相关产品。去年9月，嘉实基金、广发基金、国泰基金、华安基金、富国基金、平安基金、工银瑞信基金等近10家基金公司，密集申报了中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF、标普黄金生产商ETF等产品。截至目前，已有永赢中证沪深港黄金产业ETF、永赢中证沪深港黄金产业ETF联接、华夏中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF等成立。
In September of last year, close to 10 funds, such as the Gold Fund, the Open Development Fund, the National Thai Fund, the Huaan Foundation, the Rich Countries Fund, the Peace Fund, the Industrial and Silver Swe-Sin Foundation, and others, have made intensive declarations of products such as ETFs, the gold producer of the Chinese-certified Hong Kong gold industry, and ETFs. To date, ETFs, the gold industry of Hong Kong and Hong Kong have been set up to win and win.
2月1日，证监会官网显示，银华基金和华泰柏瑞上报的中证全球金矿主题ETF（QDII），以及嘉实基金上报的中证精选市场金矿主题ETF（QDII），相关材料均已获接收。据悉，此次首批获接收的金矿主题基金，标的指数分别为中证全球金矿主题指数和中证精选市场金矿主题指数，两只指数选取国内外50只市值较大的金矿采掘、冶炼等领域上市公司证券，作为指数样本。
On 1 February, the SEC network indicated that relevant materials had been received on the Chinese-based global gold mining theme ETF (QDII), as reported by the Silver Foundation and the Whitebury, and on the Chinese-based gold-selected-market theme ETF (QDII). The first gold-mining thematic fund received was known to be the Central American gold-mining thematic index and the Central-Certificate gold-selected-market-theme index, with two indexes taking samples of 50 publicly listed company securities in areas such as gold mining, refining, etc., both within and outside the country.
此外，黄金赛道主题基金在2023年“吸金”能力亮眼，多只黄金ETF实现规模大增，如华安黄金ETF规模在2023年末达140亿元，相较于上年末增幅达44%；国泰黄金ETF、富国上海金ETF规模增幅均超100%。
In addition, in 2023, the gold track theme fund became “breathing gold”, with a significant increase in the size of a large number of gold ETFs, such as the 14 billion yuan size of the Huaan gold ETF at the end of 2023, an increase of 44 per cent compared to the previous year; and the country's gold ETF, the rich Shanghai gold ETF, grew by more than 100 per cent.
对黄金2024年表现保持乐观
Be optimistic about the gold performance in 2024.
展望黄金后市，多家机构表达了对2024年的乐观看法。
Looking to the post-gold city, a number of institutions expressed optimism about 2024.
永赢黄金股ETF基金经理刘庭宇认为，后市无论是金价还是股市均有望对黄金股有利。随着美联储降息周期临近，美元和美债利率有望走弱并推动资金流入新兴市场，当前已观察到北上资金持续流入A股；随着国内政策支持陆续推出和落地，经济复苏节奏加快、企业盈利有望回升，同时宏观流动性“宽货币稳信用”的可能性较高，目前主要宽基指数均处于历史估值中低位水平，市场情绪已经明显回暖，因此对权益市场可以保持积极乐观。
As the Fed’s interest-reduction cycle approaches, interest rates on the US dollar and US debt are expected to weaken and boost capital inflows into emerging markets, a continued northward flow of capital has now been observed; as domestic policy support continues to roll out and land, the pace of economic recovery is accelerating, corporate profitability is expected to pick up, and macro-liquidity “broad currency steady credit” is likely to rise, and the main broad-based indices are now at a low level of historical valuation, and market sentiment is already clearly warming; hence positive optimism about equity markets.
随着高利率环境对美国经济的负面影响逐渐显现，美国经济数据已开始承压，美债收益率或开启下行周期，有望对金价形成中期支撑；1月的美联储议息会议暗示了后续降息的可能，美联储降息或将成为后续黄金上涨的重要推动力。另外2024全球大选年地缘扰动不断、央行购金和民间购金需求旺盛等因素或在未来一定时间内催化金价上涨；逆全球化、货币体系“去美元化”、对冲债务危机和主权信用风险等因素亦有望在长期维度对黄金价格形成支撑，对黄金2024年表现保持乐观。
As the negative impact of the high-interest-rate environment on the US economy gradually emerges, US economic data have begun to subside, with the prospect of medium-term support for gold prices, either at the rate of return on US debt or at the end of the downward cycle; the January Federal Reserve’s meeting hinted at the possibility of subsequent interest reductions, the Fed’s interest rate cuts may be an important driving force for subsequent gold increases. There are also factors such as continued geo-disturbations in the 2024 global election year, strong demand for central bank and private purchases, or catalytic increases in gold prices for some time to come; and factors such as anti-globalization, “demobilization” of the monetary system, debt overhang and sovereign credit risk are also expected to underpin gold prices in a long-term dimension, with optimism about gold performance in 2024.
华安基金指数与量化投资部认为，就业市场受到劳动力供给短缺的影响，导致美国就业数据多次超预期，推动了时薪增速和通胀的上升。然而，考虑到PMI作为综合经济景气指数可能走弱，黄金的表现可能受到支撑。
According to HSFI, the employment market is affected by a shortage of labour supply, which has led to multiple over-expected employment data in the United States, driving the rise in hourly wage growth and inflation. However, the performance of gold may be supported by the risk that PMI, as a composite economic climate index, may be weak.
此外，在降息周期与全球不确定性的背景下，对2024年黄金市场保持乐观态度。华安基金指数与量化投资部表示，首先，随着通胀水平逐渐接近美联储2%的目标，2024年美联储可能会进入降息周期。其次，全球央行持续购买黄金，特别是中国央行连续14个月购金，为黄金需求提供了支撑。最后，中东地区的地缘风险以及海外银行业风险的频发，也为黄金市场提供了避险需求。
Moreover, there is optimism about the gold market in 2024, against the backdrop of interest-rate-cutting cycles and global uncertainty. The HAF Index and Quantitative Investment Department states, first, that the Fed may enter a interest-reduction cycle in 2024 as inflation levels approach the 2% target of the Fed.
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