尽管USDT身为最主流的稳定币，曾被视为避险天堂，然而讽刺的是，如今却成为风险焦点，揭露出稳定币市场戏剧性的另一面。随着帷幕拉开，业内期盼最终结局不会演变成为又一次大规模的投资者割韭菜事件。
While USDT, as the dominant currency of stability, was considered a haven for risk, ironically, is now the focus of risk, revealing the dramatic side of the stable currency market. As the curtain opens, the expectation within the industry is that the final outcome will not turn into yet another large-scale event in which investors cut vegetables.
在五年运营、四年稳坐霸主宝座之后，USDT在10月15日下午短短两小时内骤跌8%，最低触及1:0.89美元，远低于其号称的100%美元抵押比应有的价位。这一暴跌早有预兆，自10月初以来，USDT持续走弱，六周未见溢价，一直在1美元下方徘徊。
After five years of operation and four years of dominance, the USDT plunged by 8% in just two hours on October 15th, reaching a minimum of $1.89, well below what it calls 100% of the dollar mortgage against the right price. The collapse was a premonition that, since the beginning of October, the USDT has been weak, with no premium for six weeks, hovering below the dollar.
USDT暴跌的原因可归结为两大因素：
The reasons for the collapse of the USDT can be attributed to two major factors:
市场对其背后Bitfinex偿债能力的质疑。先是NobleBank因资不抵债流失大量客户，其中包括Tether和Bitfinex，尽管传闻真实性待考。接着，Proofof Research的媒体文章直指Bitfinex偿债能力堪忧，引发全球投资者恐慌。紧接着，Bitfinex宣布暂停美元存取业务，加之部分用户反映长达六个月的取款困难，进一步加剧了担忧情绪。
The market questioned the ability of Bitfinex to pay its debts behind it. First, NobleBank lost a large number of clients, including Tether and Bitfinex, despite rumours of authenticity.
USDT资产透明度不足引发的忧虑。官方虽声称USDT由等额美元资产抵押，但由于缺乏透明度，市场对其真实储备、是否存在超额发行及能否做到刚性兑付等问题充满疑虑。特别是年初曝出的Tether和Bitfinex高管涉及USDT超发和操纵市场的丑闻，更是雪上加霜。
While official claims that USDT is encumbered by equivalent dollar assets, the market has doubts about its real reserves, whether it has been overissued, and whether it will be able to make rigid payments. This is all the more so in the case of the scandals involving USDT over-exploitation and manipulation of markets that were exposed at the beginning of the year.
实际上，关于USDT的质疑之声早已在市场上持续发酵。一方面，Tether与Bitfinex共用管理层，潜在的利益冲突和监守自盗嫌疑令人疑窦丛生；另一方面，Tether至今未能提供具有公信力的第三方审计报告，证实USDT确有相应美元支撑。
Indeed, the question of USDT has long been developed in the market. On the one hand, when Tether shares management with Bitfinex, potential conflicts of interest and suspicion of self-inflicted theft are questionable; on the other hand, Tether has so far failed to provide a credible third-party audit report confirming that the USDT is supported by a corresponding dollar.
竞逐之战——稳定币江湖的新一轮角力坊间猜测此次USDT的暴跌或许是一场有预谋的狙击战。毕竟市场份额有限，其他稳定币若想崭露头角，必然需要挑战USDT的霸主地位。媒体不断传出的负面消息似乎并非偶然，尤其是彭博社的连续三篇稿件，揭露了Tether和Bitfinex的各种丑闻，进一步催化了市场的质疑情绪。此外，其他稳定币趁机崛起，例如PAX和GUSD，USDT暴跌后它们的价格反而呈现上升态势。
After all, the market share is limited, and other stabilizing currencies will have to challenge the dominance of the USDT. It does not seem by chance that the negative news that continues to spread in the media, in particular the three successive reports of Bloomberg, revealing various scandals about Tether and Bitfinex, has further catapulted the market’s skepticism.
危局之下——USDT崩溃迫在眉睫？短期内，虽然USDT价格大幅下挫，但由于其市场占有率依然庞大，完全崩溃的可能性较小。但从长远看，如果Tether和Bitfinex无法重建投资者信任，则USDT的危机恐将进一步恶化，直至土崩瓦解。
In the short term, while USDT prices have fallen sharply, they are less likely to collapse, as their market occupancy rates remain large. But, in the long run, if Tether and Bitfinex are unable to rebuild investor trust, the USDT crisis threatens to worsen until it collapses.
尽管有报道称Bitfinex正试图牵手汇丰银行，从而获取更大的信誉保障，但也有人怀疑这只是为了恢复市场信心的公关手段。另一方面，Bitfinex展示了其丰富的加密资产储备，试图稳定市场信心，并承诺将继续改进法币存款系统。
Despite reports that Bitfinex is trying to hold the HSBC bank in order to gain greater credibility, there are doubts that this is just a public relations tool to restore confidence in the market. On the other hand, Bitfinex has shown its rich stock of encrypted assets, tried to stabilize market confidence, and promised to continue to improve the French deposit system.
而USDT的下跌似乎也给数字货币市场带来了意想不到的影响。一方面，人们担心其崩溃会导致基于USDT报价的交易币种遭遇重创；另一方面，有乐观者认为，USDT的衰落未必会给市场带来毁灭性打击，相反可能帮助数字货币市场摆脱漫长的熊市。
The decline in the USDT seems to have had an unexpected impact on the digital money market. On the one hand, there is a fear that its collapse will lead to severe damage to the currency of transactions based on the USDT offer; on the other hand, there is optimism that the decline in the USDT may not necessarily have a devastating effect on the market, but rather may help the digital money market to escape the long-standing bear market.
无论结局如何，USDT这场风波无疑为整个稳定币领域敲响了警钟，也让人们对这一新兴资产类别重新审视。注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论