目前,有关管理部门对境内ICO行为及“虚拟货币”交易场所的清理整治工作已基本完成,期间有部分投资者转向境外开展相关活动。视觉中国供图
At present, the clean-up of ICO behaviour and “virtual currency” trading sites in the country by the relevant authorities has been largely completed, with some investors moving outside the country to carry out related activities.
时隔仅仅4个月,“币圈”(一群利用区块链技术开发、发行、运营、交易虚拟货币的人)又热闹了,更多新手入局,玩法也越来越多。
After just four months, the “currency circle” (a group of people using block chain technology to develop, distribute, operate and trade in virtual currency) has rekindled, with more new entrants and more games.
1月10日,数字资产交易平台Binance(币安)宣布其全球注册用户超过了500万人,已经跃升为世界最大的交易所之一,而这距离其开始运营仅6个月左右。而且,因为新用户增长太多太快,币安一度不得不暂时关闭注册通道。
On January 10, the digital asset trading platform Binance announced that it had more than 5 million registered users worldwide, and that it had jumped to one of the world’s largest exchanges, only about six months before it started operating. And, because new users grew too fast, it had to temporarily shut down registration.
眼前这股虚拟货币的热潮有些眼熟。2017年八九月间,众多ICO(首次发行代币)项目在“币圈”和社会上引起巨大关注。不过,“一币一别墅”的神话在去年9月4日戛然而止。“一行三会”等七部委联合出台的ICO政策,将虚拟货币的ICO定义为“本质上是一种未经批准非法公开融资的行为”。
However, the myth of a “one-dollar house” ended on September 4, last. A joint ICO policy of seven ministries, such as the “one-line triad,” defines the ICO of the virtual currency as “in essence an unauthorized act of public financing”.
此后,“币圈”经历了短期的沉寂,但“炒币”“变相ICO”等热潮依旧层出不穷,各类以区块链、数字资产、虚拟货币为主题的会议、交流活动越来越多,参与“炒币热潮”的人也逐渐增多。
Since then, the “currency circle” has experienced short-term silence, but hot tides such as “fibbing” “disguised ICO” have continued to flourish, with a growing number of meetings and exchanges on block chains, digital assets, virtual currency, and participation in “fibbing booms”.
这股“炒币热潮”是如何卷土重来的?越来越多的入局新手,层出不穷的各种代币和交易方式,将会给“币圈”和社会带来什么?近日,中国青年报·中青在线记者进行了调查。
How is this “frozen boom” re-emerged? More and more newcomers, with numerous forms of currency and trade, will bring about a “currency circle” and society?
“梭哈”的炒币大军
"Ssoha"
“梭哈”,原本是赌博牌局游戏中的名词,指的是将所有赌资都押注,希望通过一把“All in”博得最大收益。而在“币圈”群里,“梭哈表情包”更多地被用来鼓励投资者投入更多资金参与“炒币”。
“Sho-ha,” originally used as a name for gambling games, refers to betting on all gambling assets in the hope of maximizing returns through a “All in.” In the “currency circle” group, “sho-ha-bags” are used more often to encourage investors to invest more money in “money-baking.”
庞晓(化名)就是“炒币大军”的一员。从2017年6月开始关注区块链和数字货币以来,她在各种代币身上已经投入数万元。不过,作为收入不算高的“工薪族”,庞晓还不太敢将全部身家“梭哈”进去,她知道,这个圈子里风险太多了。
Ponxia has invested tens of thousands of dollars in various tokens since June 2017, when she began to focus on block chains and digital currencies. But, as a wage-earner with modest incomes, Pang Xiao has not dared to enter her entire home, Sokha, and she knows that there are too many risks in this circle.
“‘币圈’的资源被高度垄断,信息极不透明,参与者水平参差不齐,‘割韭菜’的说法不是空穴来风。不只是外界,‘币圈’也是同样的看法。”庞晓说。
“The resources of the “currency ring” are highly monopolized, the information is highly opaque, the level of participants varies, and the term “cuttering” is not an empty word. Not just the outside world, but the “currency ring” is the same idea.” Pang Xiaoqiao said.
利益与风险总是成正比。币圈虽然风险多,但币价在一周内动辄上涨五六成,甚至翻倍的情况并不鲜见,超高的利润回报率仍不断吸引着更多庞晓一样的新手加入其中。
Benefits and risks are always positive. The currency circle, though risky, is not uncommon when currency prices rise by 50 or 60 per cent or even double within a week, and the super-high return on profits continues to attract more Xiaoqiao-like new players.
加入“炒币大军”已有数月,庞晓的心情就像币价走势一样,忽高忽低。但更多的时候,她对币圈的感觉是兴奋。“只要进了‘币圈’,看到自己买的或者其他没买到的币在一天之内涨了百分之二三十,想要投更多钱进去投机的心态就会越来越强。”
For months now, Pang Xiao has been in the same mood as the currency's price movement. But more often, she's excited about the currency circle. “As soon as she gets into the circle, seeing her own money or other unpurchased money rises by 20 or 30% in one day, she's getting stronger when she wants to invest more money in speculation.”
众多新手不断加入的直接因素,是各种虚拟货币的快速造富神话,哪怕是一些恶搞的虚拟货币,也能被追捧为高价的虚拟货币。
The direct factor that many newcomers continue to join is the fast-fought myth of various virtual currencies, which can be promoted as high-priced virtual currencies even if they are bogus.
2013 年被推出的“狗狗币”,原本只是创始团队借此筹款做公益的一个项目,在公益活动结束后就处于相对停滞的状态。但在2017年12月,“狗狗币”的价格稳步走高,市值上涨超过400%。“狗狗币”的创始人之一杰克逊·帕尔默曾对媒体表示,担心这会是一场恶性通货膨胀骗局。
But, in December 2017, the price of “dog coins” rose steadily and the market value rose by more than 400%. Jackson Palmer, one of the founders of “dogbills”, once told the media that he feared it would be a vicious inflation scam.
而在投资界人士看来,“狗狗币”这类案例在再次来临的“炒币热潮”中其实并不新鲜。
In the view of the investment community, cases such as “dog coins” are not really new in the re-emerging “currency boom”.
“我相信绝大多数人没有想到,在那么短的时间里面,ICO会重新狂热,甚至有远超上一次的态势。”星合资本董事长郭宇航认为,再次来临的“炒币热潮”中,肯定不乏对虚拟货币抱有信仰,而且懂技术的人,但大多数人并不会坚定持有某些虚拟货币。
“I believe that the vast majority of people did not think that, in that short period of time, the ICO would return to fanaticism, even more than it did last time.” As Chairman Kwok of Starling Capital said, there must be no shortage of people who believe in virtual money and know how to do it, but most people are not determined to hold some virtual money.
“参与其中的人都很清楚,很多代币背后支撑的逻辑是很脆弱的。只要一有风吹草动,追涨杀跌比股市要严重的多,因为没有涨跌停板。”郭宇航说,“其实大家都是带着一点投机的心理参与这场游戏的,只是觉得击鼓传花,自己不会是最后一棒。”
“It is clear to all involved that the logic behind many of the coins is fragile. As soon as there is a wind blowing, it's more serious than the stock market, because it's not going up or down.” As cosmos Guo said, “We are all involved in this game with a bit of speculation, but with the feeling that we're not the last ones.”
币价的涨跌逻辑
Logic for the up and down of the currency
那么,这一轮“炒币热潮”是如何在ICO禁令后,悄然发展并波及更广的?
How, then, did this round of “frozen booms” develop quietly after the ICO ban and spread more widely?
中央民族大学法学院教授邓建鹏长期研究虚拟货币及其监管。在他看来,最近这一轮“炒币热潮”与2017年9月监管部门对虚拟货币的集中整治有一定关系,但更多地还是因为,比特币造富现象吸引了更多普通投资者,甚至是传统金融机构纷纷入场,从而推动比特币以及其他虚拟货币的价格上涨。
Professor Deng Jianjun, Faculty of Law, University of the Central Nation, has been studying virtual currency and its regulation for a long time. The recent round of “frozen currency booms” has, in his view, been somewhat related to the concentration of virtual currency by the regulatory authorities in September 2017, but more so because of the fact that bitcoin wealth attracts more ordinary investors, even traditional financial institutions, thus pushing up price increases in bitcoin and other virtual currencies.
在郭宇航看来,推动比特币等虚拟货币价格高涨最主要的动力,就是不断有新人涌入市场。据他估算,经过近几年虚拟货币领域前后2轮的“牛熊切换”,国内“币圈”的总人数已经从数十万暴增至数百万,由于比特币总量有限,且其中有许多已经遗失,或者掌握在极少数人手中,其集中度远超传统财富,所以逐渐增多的新投资者还会继续将比特币以及其他虚拟货币的价格推高。
According to Kwok, the main driving force behind the rise in virtual currency prices, such as Bitcoin, is the continuous influx of newcomers into the market. He estimates that, after two rounds of “cow bear swaps” in the virtual currency field in recent years, the total number of domestic “currency rings” has increased from hundreds of thousands to millions. Given the limited amount of bitcoins and the fact that many of them have been lost, or are in the hands of a very small minority, their concentration is far greater than traditional wealth, and that the rising number of new investors will continue to raise the price of Bitcoin and other virtual currencies.
“当整个‘币圈’市场从20万人快速扩张到100万时,其实很多‘币圈’的硬通货,比如比特币和ETH(以太坊币)的单价自然水涨船高。”郭宇航如此解释比特币和其他虚拟货币的“造富效应”。
“When the whole “currency circle” market has expanded rapidly from 200,000 to 1 million, there are indeed a lot of “currency” hard currency, such as bitcoin and ETH (in darlin’s) unit prices, which rise in natural waters.” As such, Kwok explains the “rich effect” of bitcoin and other virtual currencies.
如果说“硬通货”的高价更多地是因为稀缺性,那么“币圈”中其他各种代币的涨价逻辑则更为复杂。
If the high price of “hard currency” is more due to scarcity, the logic of price increases in other forms of currency in the “currency circle” is more complicated.
中国政法大学资本金融研究院副院长武长海告诉中国青年报·中青在线记者,其他各种代币的发展是与比特币同步增长起来的,这包括公司与个人利用加密数字货币开展的企业及项目融资行为。因此,其他各种代币与比特币具有关联性,比特币的交易价格走势与其他各种代币的交易价格增减具有一致性。
Wu Changhai, Vice-President of the Capital Finance Institute of China University of Political Science and Law, told China’s youth newspaper China’s online journalist that the development of various other tokens has been growing in tandem with Bitcoin, including corporate and project financing by companies and individuals using encrypted digital currencies. As a result, various other tokens are associated with Bitcoin, and the price of Bitcoin’s transactions has moved in line with increases and decreases in the prices of other currencies.
以上述“狗狗币”为例,构成其价格变动的因素有很多,比特币的价格走势、投资“狗狗币”的人群等因素都可能影响其价格变化。而在真实的“币圈”中,受影响最明显而且最受争议的,可能还是虚拟货币的交易环节。
For example, there are a number of factors that make up price movements, such as price movements in bitcoins, and people investing in doggie coins, all of which may affect price movements. In the real currency circles, the most obvious and controversial of the effects may be virtual currency transactions.
1月14日晚间,另一数字资产交易所OKEx币币交易的ETH/USDT(以太坊与泰达币)交易对出现超低价巨额成交单,大量ETH不计成本地快速卖出。对此,OKEx方面回应称,超低价巨额成交单是因为某用户在12分钟内,连续5次通过市价单快速卖出大量ETH。
On the evening of 14 January, another digital asset exchange, the ETH/USDT (Ethio and Tedar) deal, which deals in OKEx currency, was sold quickly and at no cost to a large number of large amounts of prices. In response, the OKEx side stated that the huge amount was sold quickly five times in 12 minutes by a user who sold a large amount of ETH through a market price list.
但在庞晓看来,如此粗心大意的ETH交易价格错误发生的概率较低。她认为,这类情况背后,可能是业内为提高一些币种交易的流动性和价格,采取的一种手段。
But, according to Pan Xiao, the probability of such a careless ETH transaction price error is low. She believes that behind such a situation may be a means of increasing the liquidity and prices of some currency transactions within the industry.
事实上,最近不少交易所都推出了意在提高流动性、增加用户黏性的平台币。1月20日晚间,火币Pro宣布发行自己的平台令牌Huobi Token,短短几分钟内,OKEx就传出将要推出OKB,并且要把OKB建设成OKEx生态中的重要组成部分。加上此前币安推出的BNB(币安币),目前国内“币圈”的三大常用平台都已经推出相应的平台币。
In fact, a number of recent exchanges have introduced platform coins designed to increase mobility and stickyness among users. In the evening of January 20, the Coal Pro announced the release of its platform badge, Huobi Token, and in just a few minutes, OKEx announced that it would launch OKB and build it into an important part of the OKEx ecology.
在邓建鹏看来,目前全球各大虚拟货币交易所的数据基本都没有与金融监管机构对接,所以很难证明这类交易所有没有和代币的“大矿主”联手拉抬价格,或者内幕交易。
According to Deng Jianjun, data from the world's major virtual currency exchanges are currently largely unconnected with financial regulators, and it is therefore difficult to prove whether such exchanges have joined forces with the “big miners” of the tokens to raise prices or to deal with insiders.
而在许多虚拟货币价格飞涨的情况下,许多投资者更有可能担心存在人为哄抬价格的情况。“这种担心是有一定道理和可能性的,日本已经有(虚拟货币)交易所被发现在使用机器人自买自卖、单方面拉抬价格。”邓建鹏说。
And many investors are more likely to fear artificial price hikes in the face of soaring virtual currency prices. “There is some reason and possibility for this fear, and Japan already has (virtual currency) exchanges that are found to be using robots to buy their own prices unilaterally.” Deng said.
未来的监管选择
Future regulatory options
意识到“炒币热潮”中潜藏的投资风险,监管部门最近频频出招,或提出明确要求,或作出风险提醒。
Aware of the investment risks hidden in the “frozen boom”, regulatory authorities have recently made frequent moves, either through explicit requests or through risk alerts.
日前,中国人民银行营业管理部发布《关于开展为非法虚拟货币交易提供支付服务自查整改工作的通知》(下称《整改通知》),要求辖区内各支付机构开展自查整改工作,严禁为虚拟货币交易提供服务,并且采取措施防止交易通道用于虚拟货币交易。
Previously, the Ministry of Operations Management of the People's Bank of China had issued a circular on the conduct of self-censorship and restructuring of payment services for illegal virtual currency transactions (hereinafter referred to as the " Reorganization Notice " ), which required payment agencies in the jurisdictions to carry out self-reconstructing and to strictly prohibit the provision of services for virtual currency transactions and to take measures to prevent the use of trade routes for virtual currency transactions.
1月12日,中国互联网金融协会发表了题目为《关于防范变相ICO活动的风险提示》(下称《提示)》的公告,呼吁广大消费者和投资者认清相关模式的本质,增强风险防范意识,理性投资,不要盲目跟风炒作。《提示》还点名了迅雷集团所发布的数字货币“链克”(原“玩客币”),称其“代替了对参与者贡献服务的法币付款义务,本质上是一种融资行为,是变相ICO”。
On 12 January, the China Internet Finance Association (CIFA) issued an announcement entitled "Risk for Protection against Variable ICO Activities" (hereinafter referred to as "the reminder" ), calling on consumers and investors to understand the essence of the model, increase awareness of risk prevention, invest rationally, and not blindly. The reminder also named the digital currency “chain-gram” (formerly the “principal currency”) issued by the Thundergroup as “a substitute for the French currency payment obligation to contribute services to the participants, which is essentially a financing act and a disguised ICO”.
苏宁金融研究院高级研究员洪蜀宁认为,《整改通知》实际上并没有更新的内容,虽然对虚拟货币交易会造成一定不便,但由于国内已禁止场内交易,目前虚拟货币的投资者进行的一般都是场外交易,因此这项政策的可操作性不大,只能禁掉个别知名的、交易量大的虚拟货币做市商。
The Senior Researcher of the Sunning Institute of Finance, Hong Yong Ning, argued that the Reorganization Notice did not actually have an update and that, although it would cause some inconvenience to virtual currency transactions, because domestic in-house transactions were prohibited and current virtual currency investors were generally off-the-shelf transactions, the policy was not operational enough to block a few well-known, highly traded, virtual currencies.
郭宇航也认为,《整改通知》对场外交易的作用很有限,而此前虚拟货币领域最重要的政策——对ICO“一刀切”——已经落地数月,更多代币项目在场外交易,甚至是国外交易平台上交易,由此加剧很多虚拟货币项目的风险。“一些小型交易所‘卷币跑’的情况逐渐出现,根本没价值的‘空气币’泛滥,大家都是捞一把就走的心态。”
Kwok also believes that the Reorganization Notice has had a limited impact on off-site transactions, and that the most important policy in the area of virtual currency – “one-size-fits-all” for ICO – has been on the ground for months, with more intergenerational transactions taking place, even on foreign trading platforms, increasing the risk of many virtual money projects. “The emergence of small exchanges ‘rolling’ – and the proliferation of worthless ‘air currency’ – is a mindset in which we all walk.”
虚拟货币的技术特性决定了监管总是滞后的,那么以往采取的监管政策可以为未来的监管提供哪些参考?
The technical characteristics of virtual currencies determine that regulation is always behind schedule, so what are the references that past regulatory policies could provide for future regulation?
洪蜀宁认为,虚拟货币作为区块链技术的重要产物有着巨大的市场需求,强行禁止只能阻拦一时,不可能阻挡技术发展的脚步。“监管部门应当静下心来认真研究区块链和虚拟货币,研究真正的技术应用和欺诈行为之间的差别。”
According to Hong Junning, virtual currency, as an important product of block chain technology, has huge market demand, and the imposition of a ban can only block technological development for a moment. “The regulators should study carefully the block chain and virtual currency, and the difference between real technology applications and fraud.”
郭宇航也建议,对虚拟货币的监管应该更多考虑“疏”的可能,例如,通过一个监管所信任的机构,在小范围内试行代币交易,严格把控交易流程和人员,严格筛选交易币种。“有一个出口让大家能够正规交易,把它放在阳光下。”
Kwok also suggested that regulation of virtual currency should give more consideration to the possibility of “leaping”, for example, through a body of trust, to experiment with currency transactions on a small scale, strictly sifting the transaction process and people, and strictly sifting the currency of the transaction. “There is an exit that allows people to make a formal deal and put it in the sun.”
邓建鹏认为,私人或企业发行的虚拟货币与国家金融监管体系之间,在之后的很长一段时间内恐怕都可能是天然对立的。但他在之前也预测过,关闭国内的比特币交易机构后,最终监管力量可能会因为难以管制场外交易,而出现新规。
According to Deng Jianpan, a virtual currency issued by a private or enterprise may be a natural conflict between the country’s financial regulatory system for a long time to come. He had also predicted that, with the closure of the country’s Bitcoin trading agencies, the ultimate regulatory power might be new because of the difficulty of regulating off-site transactions.
在武长海看来,在“ICO一刀切”以后,虚拟货币的监管方面还面临一大挑战:由于区块链和虚拟货币可以超越国界线,而各国政府对待虚拟货币的态度并不一致,放松监管的国家也许能就此获得额外收益。“所以说从长远来看,各国还应当协同监管,防止监管套利。”
In Wuhai’s view, the regulation of virtual currencies is still a major challenge after the “ICO One-size-fits-all” approach: since the chain of blocks and virtual currencies can transcend national boundaries, Governments’ attitudes to virtual currencies are not uniform, and less regulated countries may be able to reap additional benefits. “So, in the long run, countries should also work with regulation to prevent regulatory arbitrage.”
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