作者：Katherine Ross，Blockwoeks；编译：邓通，金色财经
By Katherine Ross, Blockwoeks; edited by Dunton, Gold Book
系好安全带，我们将深入进行一些技术分析。
Seatbelts are fastened, and we will conduct some in-depth technical analysis.
周一，比特币跌破 60,000 美元。尽管此后价格已恢复到该水平，但人们仍在猜测下一个支撑线，一些人想知道价格是否会进一步下跌。
On Monday, Bitcoin fell by $60,000. Although prices have since returned to that level, one still guesses the next support line, and some wonder whether prices will fall further.
Ledn 首席投资官 John Glover 谈到了一些值得关注的技术水平。他表示，下一个支撑位将是 55,000 美元或 56,000 美元；我们上次看到的价格是在五月初。
Ledn's Chief Investment Officer, John Glover, spoke about some interesting levels of technology. He said that the next position of support for
如果比特币跌破该水平，则关注 49,000 美元。
If Bitcoin falls at that level, pay attention to $49,000.
尽管存在波动，Glover 仍然对整体环境持乐观态度。
Despite fluctuations, Glover remains optimistic about the overall environment.
“我认为秋季将会出现通胀压力，这将推动比特币走高。我认为[证券交易委员会]将会批准[现货以太ETF]，这可能会在夏末进行，这将推高价格，”Glover 说。
“I think there will be inflationary pressures in the fall, which will push bitcoin up. I think the [Secret Trading Commission] will approve [the spot ETF], which may take place at the end of the summer, which will push prices up,” says Glover.
“然后将会出现一些我们甚至不知道的外源性冲击，但我认为这可能会推动价格回升。但实际上，我们都必须认识到，我们正处于更大的投资者市场采用比特币的早期阶段，”他继续说道。
“There will then be some external shocks that we don't even know, but I think it might push prices back. But, in fact, we all have to realize that we are in the early stages of adopting bitcoin in larger investor markets.” He goes on to say.
他的分析基于艾略特波浪理论，该理论研究了由于投资者心理和情绪变化而导致的反复出现的长期价格模式。该理论认为，市场以可预测的波动方式波动，反映了投资者的集体情绪。如果你是一个像我一样的书呆子，那么通过观察历史如何重演来衡量长期前景，这是一种有趣的方法。
His analysis is based on the Elliott Wave theory, which looks at recurrent long-term price patterns due to the psychological and emotional changes of investors. The theory suggests that the `strong' market fluctuates in a predictable way, reflecting investors' collective sentiment. , if you are a nerd like me, it is an interesting way to measure long-term prospects by looking at how history repeats itself.
艾略特波浪理论假设总共有五个波浪。根据 Glover 的评估，我们最有可能处于第五波中的第三波。正如图表所示，比特币确实经历了第一波和第二波。第三波通常表明，在比特币获得走高动力之前，需要再次回调。
The Elliott wave theory assumes that there are five waves in total. According to Glover's assessment,
人们普遍的共识是，一旦我们度过了夏天，从那里开始的行情可能会更加顺利（关键词：可能）。
There is a general consensus that once we have spent the summer, it may be easier to start from there (keywords: possible).
在 Empire 时事通讯中，我们之前根据多项分析预测讨论过比特币到年底将突破 80,000 美元。
In the Empiré newsletter, we discussed Bitcoin on the basis of multiple analysis predictions that by the end of the year it would be $80,000.
“我的核心观点是，我相信到年底BTC将达到 85,000 美元至 95,000 美元，但我认为直到夏末的某个时候才会有催化剂实现这一目标，这可能是SEC 批准以太坊 ETF，这将推高所有资产价格，”Glover 表示。
“My core view is that by the end of the year, I believe the BTC will reach between $85,000 and $95,000, but I don't think there will be a catalyst until some time in late summer to achieve this goal, which could be the SEC approval of Taipan ETF, which will push up all asset prices,” Glover says.
我们可能会在 7 月初看到这些 ETF 获得批准。更新的注册声明于上周提交。
We may see these ETFs approved in early July. The updated registration statement was submitted last week.
Glover 的预测可以在下面的任一波浪中看到。
Glover's predictions can be seen in any wave below.
Glover 对比特币的艾略特波浪分析
Glover 指出，现阶段，比特币的交易就像科技股一样。想想几年前的 Meta 或 Tesla。他说我们会看到它回落，但随后会像本周早些时候那样恢复。
Glover pointed out that, at this stage, Bitcoin's deal is like a technology unit. Think about Meta or Tesla a few years ago. He said we'd see it fall, but we'd come back as we did earlier this week.
但 Glover 的关注点并不局限于比特币。他还谈到了为什么我们没有看到投资者在过去的周期中已经习惯的山寨币爆炸性增长。
Glover's focus, however, is not limited to bitcoin. He also talks about why `strong' did not see the explosive growth of the mountain coins that investors have become accustomed to in the past cycle.
这在一定程度上可以归因于本周期投资者结构的变化，高度投机的散户投资者占少数。显然，像贝莱德这样的机构和大公司已经以其产品占据了中心舞台。考虑到 2022 年发生的事件，这并不特别令人惊讶。
This can be attributed in part to changes in the investor structure of this cycle, with a small number of highly speculative bulk investors. It is clear that institutions and large companies like Belaid have taken centre stage with their products. This is not particularly surprising given the events of 2022.
Glover 最终认为，除了前五名左右之外，山寨币可能不会在本周期反弹。
Glover finally thought that, with the exception of the first five or so, “传统投资者不会购买山寨币，只有散户在购买山寨币，他们中的很多人在 2023 年受到了严重伤害。我认为很多过去非常愿意疯狂投机的人山寨币市场上的人现在不存在了，他们受到了严重的伤害，现在他们就想，‘我不想再次感受到那种痛苦。’所以我认为这只是数量的问题，这是正确的，”Glover 说。 “Traditional investors don't buy bourgeois coins, except for the homeless, many of whom were badly hurt in 2023. I think many of the people who used to be very willing to be wildly speculative are no longer in the market, they are badly hurt, and now they're thinking, ‘I don't want to feel that pain again.’ So I think it's just a question of numbers, and that's right, according to Glover. 因此，当我们全力以赴度过一个残酷的夏天时，请系好安全带。如果我们能够渡过难关，未来的日子可能会更好。 So, as we go through a cruel summer, fasten our seat belts. If we can get through this, the days ahead may be better.
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