在比特币市场中，一场惊人的变化正在悄然发生。随着比特币减半的日子越来越近，交易所持币量却降至了五年来的最低点。这一信号无疑引发了市场的震荡和关注，投资者们纷纷展开思考，未来的走势将会如何？本文将深度剖析这一现象，为您揭示背后的种种内幕。
In the Bitcoin market, an amazing change is taking place. As Bitcoins halved, the amount of currency traded has fallen to its lowest point in five years. This signal has undoubtedly triggered market shocks and concerns, and investors are increasingly thinking about what will happen in the future.
比特币减半的倒计时已经开始，这意味着比特币的挖矿奖励将减半，供应量将受到影响。这一变化不仅仅是数字上的减半，更是市场心理和投资者预期的集中体现。在这个关键时刻，交易所持币量的下降无疑给市场带来了强烈的暴涨信号。让我们一起深入探讨这一现象背后的种种细节。
The countdown to halving bitcoin has begun, which means that bitcoin incentives for mining will be halved and supplies will be affected. This change is not just a reduction in numbers, but also a reflection of market psychology and investors’ expectations.
首先，让我们来看一下为什么比特币减半会引发市场的强烈反应。比特币的发行总量是有限的，而减半意味着新比特币的产生速度将减缓，市场上的供应将变得更加紧张。这种稀缺性往往会刺激投资者的购买欲望，推动价格的上涨。与此同时，减半也意味着挖矿的成本将增加，对于矿工来说，这可能是一个考验，只有成本效益良好的矿工才能在市场竞争中生存下来。
First, let's see why halving bitcoins triggers a strong market reaction. The total distribution of bitcoins is limited, and halving means that the production of new bitcoins will slow down, and the supply of new bitcoins will become more stressful in the market.
在这样的背景下，交易所持币量的下降就显得格外引人注目。交易所持有的比特币数量减少，意味着更多的比特币被投资者持有或转移到冷钱包中，而非被交易出售。这种现象往往会被市场解读为投资者对于未来行情的乐观态度，他们更倾向于持有比特币而非交易出售。这种持币态势的形成，往往会加剧市场的供需紧张，进而推动价格的上涨。
The decline in the amount of currency held by the exchange means that more bitcoins are held or transferred by investors to cold wallets rather than sold. This is often interpreted by the market as an optimistic attitude of investors towards the future, and they prefer to hold bitcoins rather than trade sales.
除了市场心理因素外，技术面的因素也不可忽视。比特币的减半意味着挖矿难度的增加，这对于矿工来说可能是一个挑战。那些无法承受挖矿成本的矿工可能会选择出售手中的比特币，从而增加了交易所的供应量。因此，交易所持币量的下降也反映了市场中矿工群体的变化，他们的选择将直接影响市场的供应情况。
In addition to market psychological factors, technological factors cannot be ignored. The halving of bitcoins means that mining is more difficult, which may be a challenge for miners. Those miners who cannot afford to do so may choose to sell bitcoins in their hands, thus increasing the availability of exchanges.
在这个充满变数的时刻，投资者们需要保持警惕，审时度势。比特币市场的波动性很大，价格可能随时发生剧烈波动。因此，对于投资者来说，密切关注交易所持币量的变化是至关重要的。这不仅可以帮助他们更好地把握市场脉搏，还可以及时调整自己的交易策略，规避风险，把握机会。
Thus, for investors, it is essential to pay close attention to changes in the amount of money traded. This will not only help them to better control market pulses, but also to adjust their trading strategies in a timely manner, avoid risks and seize opportunities.
综上所述，比特币减半前交易所持币量降至五年低点，给市场带来了强烈的暴涨信号。这一现象背后蕴含着复杂的市场逻辑和投资者心态，需要我们从多个角度去理解和分析。在未来的日子里，比特币市场的走势将更加扑朔迷离，投资者们需要保持清醒头脑，理性投资，方能在市场的浪潮中立于不败。愿您在这个数字货币的世界里，披荆斩棘，披荆斩棘，披荆斩棘，披荆斩棘，披荆斩棘，披荆斩棘。
In the days to come, the market will have to be much more confused, and investors will need to remain sober and rational in order to be neutral in the market. May you, in a world of this number of currencies, take a thorn, a thorn, a thorn, a thorn, a thorn, a thorn, a thorn, a thorn, a thorn, a thorn, a thorn, and a thorn. https://save-img.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/oneblog/206153395018.jpg"alt=">.
IntoTheBlock数据显示，自今年初以来，比特币长期持有者总共出售了约20万枚比特币，这一抛售趋势已持续了近3个月，长期持有者的比特币持有量在此期间不断下降。
IntoTheBlock data show that since the beginning of the year, some 200,000 bitcoins have been sold by long-term holders of Bitcoins, a trend that has continued for almost three months, and that the amount of bitcoins held by long-term holders has been declining over this period.
尽管出现抛售，但IntoTheBlock指出，这是牛市期间「典型的长期持有者活动」，且与先前牛市相比，抛售速度有明显的差距，在上次牛市期间，长期持有者的持有量减少了约15%，但当前的持有量减幅仅约1.5%。
Despite the sale, Into TheBlock stated that it was a “typical long-term owner activity” during the cattle market and that there was a marked difference in the rate of sale compared to the previous cattle market, where the holdings of long-term holders decreased by about 15 per cent during the last cattle market, but the current holdings decreased by only about 1.5 per cent.
各类投资者的大量囤币，抵消了抛售的影响，Crypto Quant执行长Ki Young Ju就发布数据显示，比特币囤币地址在21日流入2.53万枚BTC，创下历史新高。
The impact of the sale was offset by the massive accumulation of currency by various types of investors, and data released by Executive Director Kipto Quant Ki Young Ju indicated that the Bitcoin hoarding site had reached an all-time high of 253,000 BTC on 21th.
符合囤币地址的条件，须包括未曾转出交易、余额超过10BTC、不属于中心化交易所(CEX)或矿工账户、已收到两笔以上转入交易、最近的交易发生在过去7年内等。
The condition for the holding of currency must include that the transaction has not been transferred, that the balance exceeds 10 BTC, that it is not part of the Centralized Exchange (CEX) or Miner's account, that it has received more than two transfers, that the most recent transactions have taken place within the last seven years, etc.
另外，自2020年3月中旬以来，交易所持有的比特币数量开始大幅下跌，表明投资者行为发生了转变，过去交易所最高曾在2020年时持有超过17%的比特币供应量，但随后一直不断下滑，呈现出投资者将币转出交易所持续屯币的态势。
In addition, since mid-March 2020, the number of bitcoins held by the exchange has begun to decline significantly, indicating a shift in investor behaviour, with the exchange having in the past held up to more than 17 per cent of its supply in 2020, but it has continued to decline since then, giving rise to a trend of investors moving their currency out of the exchange to keep their currency.
据Glassnode数据显示，今年初以来，比特币在交易所的持有量持续减少，从1月1日到2月19日，交易所钱包中的比特币余额已从235.6万枚BTC下降至231.4万枚BTC，创下自2018年4月以来的最低水平，这使得交易所在比特币供应量中的占比，已从今年初的12.03%下降至11.79%。
According to Glasnode data, Bitcoin holdings on the exchange have been declining steadily since the beginning of the year, from 1 January to 19 February, the balance of Bitcoin in the purse of the exchange fell from 2.356,000 BTCs to 2.34 million BTCs, the lowest level since April 2018, bringing the share of the exchange in Bitcoin supply to 11.79 per cent from 12.03 per cent at the beginning of the year.
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