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比特币重返1万美元
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文丨一本财经，作者丨棘轮 林格
A book of money, written by Ringer.
股票、黄金、比特币……7月以来，多种资产轮番上涨，吸引了投资者的眼球。
Stock, gold, bitcoin...Standards of assets have increased since July, attracting the eyes of investors.
7月26日晚间，比特币经历多日上涨后，冲上1万美元关口。“5位数的比特币回来了。”有玩家感慨。
On the evening of 26 July, after several days of rising Bitcoin, it hit the $10,000 gate. “The five-digit bitcoin is back.” There are players.
甚至有国外玩家开始“感谢上帝”，或者戏称“比特币治好了我的抑郁症”。
Even foreign players began to “thank God” or “bitcoin cured my depression”.
一度暂停购入比特币的大户灰度投资，也恢复了对比特币的投资。
Large-scale ash investments in Bitcoin were suspended at a time, and the investment in Bitcoin was resumed.
但对于这次比特币上涨的原因，外界仍旧众说纷纭。尽管比特币本次上涨表现稳健，但仍有业内人士指出，比特币未来的走势并不明朗。
But there is still a lot of talk about the reasons for the Bitcoin rise. Despite the robust performance of the Bitcoin rise, some insiders say that the future of Bitcoin is uncertain.
在这个动荡不安的时代，比特币还会出现怎样的动荡？
What kind of turmoil does Bitcoin have in these turbulent times?
01、重回一万美元
01, $10,000 back
1万美元，是许多币圈玩家的心理门槛。而今，比特币正在站上这一门槛。
$10,000 is the psychological threshold for many currency players. Now, Bitcoin is on that threshold.
7月26日晚间，比特币价格终于突破1万美元，随后小幅回落。7月27日上午，比特币再次突破1万美元。
In the evening of 26 July, the price of Bitcoin was finally over $10,000, followed by a small fall. In the morning of 27 July, Bitcoin was over $10,000 again.
比特币价格走势 来源：火币
Bitcoin price trends Source: Currency
火币数据显示，今日午间，比特币价格达到了近5个月来的最高点——10315美元。
Currency data show that in the middle of today's afternoon, the price of bitcoin has reached its highest level in almost five months — $10315.
这也是进入2020年后，比特币第三次突破1万美元。
It was also the third time after 2020 that Bitcoin made a breakthrough of $10,000.
第一次发生在今年2月，当时，比特币瞬时拉升，一度达到10500美元，并在1万美元上方维持了24小时，便开始下跌。
The first occurred in February of this year, when Bitcoin jumped at an instant amounting to $10,500 and remained above $10,000 for 24 hours before it began to fall.
第二次同样如此。6月1日，比特币从9600美元突然拉升，冲上1万美元。但在1万美元上方，比特币只维持了12个小时，便迅速跌落到9300美元，甚至较此前价格更低。
The second time was the same. On 1 June, Bitcoin jumped from $9,600 to $10,000. But on top of $10,000, it lasted only 12 hours, and fell rapidly to $9,300, even lower than before.
但这一次，不少人相信，比特币能够站稳1万美元。
But this time, a lot of people believe that Bitcoin can hold on to $10,000.
“与前两次相比，比特币这次的1万美元冲关之路，走得更加稳健。”一位币圈玩家表示，“前两次都是瞬间拉高，这次则是慢慢涨上去的。”
“Betcoin's 10,000-dollar drive is more robust than the previous two.” A currency-circle player said, “The first two were pulled up instantaneously, and this time it went up slowly.”
数据显示，自7月20日的9100美元开始，比特币连续7日上涨，价格一路攀高，并最终在27日达到10315美元。与以往相比，比特币本次的上升态势循序渐进，上升通道的时间周期更长。
The data show that, starting with $9,100 on 20 July, Bitcoin rose seven days in a row, raising prices all the way to $10315 on 27 July. Compared to the past, Bitcoin’s current upturn has been gradual, with a longer period of upturn.
如果与3月13日的历史低点3800美元相比，比特币在4个半月的时间里，涨幅达到了171%。近一周来，比特币的价格也实现了12%的涨幅。
By comparison with the historic low of $3,800 on March 13, Bitcoin rose 171% over a four-and-a-half-month period. Bitcoin prices have also increased by 12% over the past week.
不止比特币，其他主流数字货币近期也普遍上涨，部分币种的涨幅甚至超过了比特币。
More than Bitcoin, other mainstream digital currencies have also generally risen in recent times, with some currencies even exceeding Bitcoin.
例如，ETH近一周就领涨币圈，涨幅高达34%，并刷新一年来价格新高。而莱特币的涨势也超过了比特币，达到了14%。
For example, ETH has been in the currency ring for almost a week, rising by as much as 34%, and refreshing prices for the past year. Lettco has also risen by more than Bitcoin, reaching 14%.
AICoin数据显示，比特币24小时交易量为3023亿美元，而资金净流入量高达31.51亿美元。
AICoin data show that Bitcoin traded $30.23 billion on a 24-hour basis, while net inflows amounted to $31.51 billion.
不仅如此，比特币也喜提微博热搜。7月26日晚间，“比特币价格突破10000美元”登上微博热搜榜，位列榜单第16位。
Moreover, Bitcoin is also happy with the microblogging. On the evening of July 26, “bitcoin over $10,000” went to the list of microbrows, 16th place on the list.
比特币的大涨新闻，已经出圈，成为了一个社会话题。
Bitcoin's big news, it's out of circles, it's a social topic.
02、玩家狂欢
02, Player Carnival
“月初股圈沸腾了，月底币圈又沸腾了。风水轮流转，资本永无眠。”有人在微博上感慨。
"At the beginning of the month, the circle was boiling, and at the end of the month, the currency was boiling again.
追逐币价的币圈玩家们，开始忙碌起来。
Currency-challenging ring players, starting to get busy.
在海外社区Reddit上，有人引用菲尔·柯林斯经典歌曲《In the air tonight》的歌词，表达自己的心情：“哦，上帝！我一生都在等待这一时刻。”
On Reddit, an overseas community, someone quoted the lyrics of Phil Collins' classic song In the air tonight to express their feelings: "Oh, God, I've waited my whole life for this moment."
在Reddit比特币版块的每日讨论区中，这条评论被顶到了第一名，成为当日最热评论。
In the daily discussion area of the Reddit bitcoin section, this comment came to the top and became the hottest comment of the day.
而另一位Reddit用户则附和：“比特币治好了我的抑郁症。”
And another Reddit user agreed: "bitcoin cured my depression."
图：Reddit比特币每日讨论区最热评论
Figure: The hottest review of the daily discussion area in Reddit bitcoin
币圈的大户们，也开始蠢蠢欲动。
The big families in the currency ring are starting to move.
以灰度投资为例。在5月12日比特币产量减半后，这家公司在不到1个月的时间里，就买入了18910枚比特币，其数量甚至超过了同期比特币总产量的150%。
Take as an example the grey scale investment. After halving the production of bitcoin on May 12, the company bought 18910 bitcoins in less than a month, amounting to more than 150 per cent of the total production of bitcoin over the same period.
然而，在7月1日，灰度却宣布暂停出售比特币信托产品。Cointelegraph在7月17日发布的一篇文章表示，灰度已“至少三周”停止购入比特币。
However, on 1 July, Greyscale announced a moratorium on the sale of Bitcoin trust products. In an article released on 17 July, Cointelegraph stated that the Greyscale had stopped buying Bitcoin “at least three weeks”.
但此后，灰度发布消息称，在7月10日再次恢复购入比特币。
but since then, Greyscale has released news that the purchase of Bitcoin was resumed again on 10 July.
7月20日，灰度创始人Barry Silbert表示，美国对比特币的监管正在逐步完善，未来不大可能推出对比特币的严苛监管政策。
On 20 July, the founder of Greyscale, Barry Silbert, stated that the regulations of the United States of America in Bitcoin were gradually being improved and that it was unlikely that the harsh regulatory policies of the latter would be introduced in the future.
7月22日，灰度发布报告称，投资者（灰度客户）正在以史上绝无仅有的速度购入比特币。
On 22 July, a greyscale report was released that investors (the Greyscale client) were buying into Bitcoin at an unprecedented rate.
03、未来
03, the future
在本轮比特币上涨中，灰度投资究竟是单纯的掘金者，还是幕后的推手，仍然是一个谜。
In this round of bitcoin rises, it remains a mystery whether the greyscale investment is simply a gold diggers or a behind-the-scenes push.
有人认为，比特币价格的上涨与灰度无关，与不久前在美国的一个判决有关。
suggests that the increase in bitcoin prices has nothing to do with greyscale, but with a recent judgement in the United States.
7月25日，美国联邦法院在一份判决中指出，根据华盛顿特区的《货币传输者法》，比特币是一种“货币”。这一消息被许多媒体报道，甚至被解读为“美国认可比特币的货币地位”。
On 25 July, the United States Federal Court stated in a judgement that Bitcoin was a “currency” under the Money Transmiters Act of Washington, D.C. The news was reported in many media and even interpreted as “the United States recognizes the currency status of Bitcoin”.
但这份判决的意义，可能并没有外界想象的那么重要。
But the significance of this judgement may not be as important as it has been thought to be.
美国联邦法院做出的判决，与一起地下比特币交易案件有关。法院指控嫌犯Harmon在未获牌照的情况下经营汇款业务，涉嫌洗钱。而Harmon则为自己辩护称，比特币不属于“货币”，而自己的行为也不构成“汇款”。
The court accused the suspect Harmon of money-laundering without a licence plate. Harmon defended himself that Bitcoin was not a “currency” and that his actions did not constitute a “remittance”.
最终，联邦法院做出裁决，认定比特币属于“货币”。此前，美国商品期货委员会曾认定比特币属于“大宗商品”，而美国证监会曾将部分数字货币认定为证券，但它们都没有承认任何数字货币的货币属性。
Finally, the Federal Court ruled that Bitcoin was a “currency.” Previously, the United States Commodity Futures Board had found Bitcoin to be a “large commodity”, while the United States CSRC had recognized part of the digital currency as a security, but none of them recognized the monetary identity of any digital currency.
然而，这一判例从刑辩角度出发，目的在于为嫌犯定罪。对比特币而言，这一消息不仅不构成利好，甚至会形成利空。
, however, this case is based on a criminal argument aimed at convicting the suspect. In the case of Bitcoin, this information is not only not good, but even cheap.
“业内人士都清楚这一点。所以，消息传出后，比特币并没有应声上涨。”区块链研究员孙原表示，“一天后，比特币才开始大幅拉升，这可能与民众受消息刺激买入比特币有关，但可能性不大。”
"The industry knows that. So, after the news came out, bitcoin didn't come up." Sun-won, a block chain researcher, said, "It's only one day later that bitcoin started to rise significantly, which may be related to people being encouraged to buy bitcoin, but it's unlikely."
在他看来，比特币币价上涨，主要由币圈内外因素推动。
In his view, the price of the bitcoin had risen, driven mainly by factors both inside and outside the currency circle.
在币圈内部，数字货币市场近期出现了不少利好。尤其是DeFi，这一领域近两月来获得了大量行业关注，DeFi币价也领涨币圈。
Within the currency circle, the digital money market has recently gained a lot of benefits. In particular, DeFi, which has received a lot of industry attention in the past two months, has also led to a rise in the value of DeFi.
此后，ETH跟涨DeFi，而比特币则跟涨ETH，推动了币市的整体上涨。
Since then, ETH and DeFi have risen, while Bitcoin has risen and ETH has contributed to the overall rise of the currency market.
而在外部，各国央行仍然在持续放水，这推动了全球投资市场的红火，目前，全球多个主要股票市场指数已经走出疫情影响。
Externally, central banks continue to release water, which fuels the global investment market, and several major global stock market indices are now out of the epidemic.
而在中美关系紧张等国际政治事件的影响下，黄金等避险资产的价格也在大幅上涨。这些因素都推动了币市的增长。
Under the influence of international political events, such as tensions between China and the United States, the price of risk-free assets, such as gold, has also risen significantly. These factors have contributed to the growth of the currency market.
但值得注意的是，尽管价格持续上涨，许多从业者对比特币的未来仍保持谨慎。
, however, it is worth noting that despite continued price increases, many practitioners remain cautious about the future of Bitcoin.
在一些论坛，“及时止盈，落袋为安”，成为了币圈分析师们的常见话术。
In a number of forums, the “spill up and down” became a common word for currency circles analysts.
“比特币这轮上涨较为稳健，并非‘过山车式行情’，但目前比特币市场并不明朗，未来上涨预期有限，切忌追高补仓。”一位币圈分析师写道。
“The surge in Bitcoin is more robust and not ‘till the mountain’, but the current market is not clear, and expectations for future increases are limited, obstinately obsessive of catching up.” A currency circle analyst wrote.
在矿圈，矿工们也在观望。
In the ring, the miners are watching.
矿工老夏对一本区块链表示，他们对比特币的币价走势仍处于观望态度。
The miners said to a block chain that their currency price stance in bitcoin was still on the watch.
“但不管怎样，最近矿圈对未来的信心正在提振。”他表示，“受币价利好影响，一部分手里有钱的矿工，可能会加大投资。”
“But, in any case, recent confidence in the future is gaining in the ring.” He said, “A part of the rich miners who have money in their hands may invest more, depending on the good value of the currency”.
BTC.com数据显示，自6月中旬以来，比特币全网算力正在回升。如今，比特币全网算力已超过了减半前的水平。
BTC.com data show that since mid-June, Bitcoin's net capacity has been rising. Today, Bitcoin's net capacity is more than what it was before it was halved.
结语
Concluding remarks
“比特币急需一批高级焊工，能将比特币焊死在10000上。”一位币圈玩家在网上调侃。
“Bitcoin urgently needs a group of high-level welders who can weld bitcoin to 10,000.” A currency-circle player plays online.
在下面的评论区，有人评论：“比特币急需一批高级韭菜，要比上一批韭菜更能梭哈。”
In the comment area below, it has been commented that “bitcoin urgently needs a lot of high-quality pickles, which are much more available than the last batch of pickles”.
从2017年的2万美元高峰至今，比特币市场经历了一轮又一轮的洗牌。一茬茬的韭菜前仆后继，各种戏剧情节不一而足。
From the peak of $20,000 in 2017 to the present day, the Bitcoin market has gone through a series of shufflings. A handful of pretzels have been followed by dramas.
当比特币重回1万美元，人们会问，这是牛市在重启，还是新一轮的“割韭行动”在开始。
When bitcoin returns $10,000, people ask whether this is the cattle market reopening or whether a new round of “creaking” is beginning.
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