在比特币诞生9周年里，刚过去的三个月可能算得上是史上最“惨”季度了。
In the ninth anniversary of Bitcoin's birth, the last three months may have been the worst quarter in history.
CoinMarketCap的数据显示，作为过去几年中一直备受虚拟货币市场追捧且最具标志性的虚拟数字货币比特币的价格已经从年初的17533美元高点一度暴跌至4月8日的6000美元左右，跌幅超过65%，其蒸发的市值几乎是特斯拉市值的三倍，约为Twitter市值的5.5倍。
CoinMarketCap data show that the price of Bitcoin, the most significant virtual digital currency that has been pursued in the virtual currency market for the past few years, fell sharply from a high of $17,533 at the beginning of the year to around $6,000 on 8 April, a decline of more than 65 per cent, evaporating almost three times the market value of Tesla and about 5.5 times the market value of Twitter.
是什么样的情况，让这一基于区块链技术衍生出来的附属物竟然会出现如此大的波动？而又是什么样的环境，让全球的虚拟数字货币市场风雨飘摇。
What is the situation, and what is the context, in which this technology based on block-chained technologies is subject to such volatility? And what is the context in which virtual digital money markets are swayed around the globe.
“全球数字货币的投机者有超过半数以上是中国人，但是中国金融监管层对于这一事物明显不支持；而美国自今年推出比特币期货以来，成为最大的做空工具。可以说，在整个一季度，虚拟数字货币市场遭遇了戴维斯双杀。”一位虚拟数字货币市场资深研究员张洁（化名）告诉华夏财富君。
“Most than half of the world’s digital money speculators are Chinese, but China’s financial regulatory hierarchy is clearly not supportive of this; and the US has been the biggest emptying tool since the introduction of the Bitcoin futures this year. It can be said that the virtual digital money market was killed twice throughout the quarter.” A senior researcher in the virtual digital money market, Zhang Jie, told China’s wealth kings.
比特币3个半月下跌75%
华夏财富君统计发现，从3月25日到3月30日，比特币出现“六连阴”，如果以人民币计价从最高点5.67万元跌至4.23万元左右，跌幅接近20%；而在整个3月，比特币出现了三次阶梯式下跌，从最高处7.43万元跌幅超过40%。 From 25 March to 30 March, there was a “six-colour” in Bitcoin, a decline of nearly 20 per cent if the value fell from a maximum of RMB 567,000 to around RMB 423 million, while throughout March there was a three-step fall in Bitcoin, from a peak of RMB 74.43 million to over 40 per cent. 如果从去年12月17日历史高点13.28万元计算，比特币在三个半月内，跌幅超过75%。其间出现连续三天以上的跌幅超过7次。 If the historical high of $13.28 million on December 17, last year, Bitcoin fell by more than 75 per cent in three and a half months. There were more than seven declines in more than three consecutive days. 张洁指出，每一次下跌似乎都是资金在出逃，尤其是今年2月6日之后出现的那波反弹，也是出货迹象严重。目前比特币的价格距离前低只有一步之遥，跌破极有可能是大概率事件。 Zhang Jie pointed out that each fall appeared to be a flight of funds, particularly the wave of rebounds after 6 February this year, as well as serious signs of delivery. The current price of Bitcoin is only one step from the front, and a fall is likely to be a shock. 与此同时，从2017年4月到2018年3月，比特币在谷歌（1007.04，-20.77， -2.02%）上的关键词搜索热度与其价格呈现相似的走势。当前比特币热度已较去年高峰时暴跌八成，相关指标已经跌至16%，与去年10月保持同等水平。 Meanwhile, between April 2017 and March 2018, Bitcoin's keyword search for heat on Google (1007.04, 20.77, -2.02%) showed a similar trend to its price. Bitcoin's heat has now dropped by 80% compared to last year's peak, and the relevant indicator has fallen to 16%, the same level as last October. 但是另外一方面，整个虚拟数字货币市场在一季度面临的负面消息可谓接连不断。 On the other hand, however, the negative news of the entire virtual digital money market in one quarter continues. 在3月27日，由路透社报道称，Twitter将加入Facebook（157.2， -2.14，-1.34%）和Google的阵营，在其社交媒体平台上禁止ICO及加密货币的广告。此消息一出，比特币跌破8000美元整数位心理关口。除了比特币，数字货币集体下跌。以太币大跌7%，瑞波币大跌6.61%，比特币现金大跌7%。莱特币跌9.5%。 On March 27, Reuters reported that Twitter would join Facebook (157.2, - 2.14, -1.34 per cent) and Google to ban ICO and encrypted currency advertising on its social media platform. In the first instance, Bitcoin fell through the 8,000-dollar full-digit psychological threshold. With the exception of Bitcoin, digital money fell collectively. In Tai currency, it fell by 7 per cent, Riboco by 6.61 per cent and Bitcoin by 7 per cent. 3月29日，央行举行了全国货币金银工作电视电话会议，央行副行长范一飞表示，要开展对各类虚拟货币的整顿清理，密切与相关部门的沟通协作，大力整治现金流通领域的乱象。尽管央行此前已经多次发布对于虚拟货币市场的监管措施，但是在今年两会之后，央行新行长易纲接棒周小川后，范一飞副行长的表态已经预示着中国金融监管部门对于虚拟货币市场的打击力度会越来越强。 On March 29, the Central Bank held a national telephonic conference on monetary and monetary work, and the Vice-President of the Central Bank, Fan Yi Fei, expressed the need to clean up the various virtual currencies, work closely and coordinate with the relevant ministries, and make a major effort to remedy the cash-flow situation. Despite the central bank’s previous regulatory measures on the virtual currency market, after two meetings this year, the new Governor of the Central Bank, Mr. Fan Yi,’s statement has already heralded a stronger and stronger blow to the virtual currency market by China’s financial regulatory sector. “从消息面来看，3月最后一周虚拟货币市场承受的压力非同小可，甚至从整个3月来说，负面消息接连不断。以3月29日央行官员的表态来说，对于全球数字货币市场的打击还是很大的，这意味着很多虚拟货币都将被清理掉。”上海一位圈内资深投资者表示。 “In the news, the pressure on the virtual currency market during the last week of March has been extraordinary, and even negative news has continued throughout March. In the words of central bank officials on March 29, the impact on the global digital money market has been significant, meaning that many virtual currencies will be cleaned up.” A senior investor in Shanghai said. 4月行情难指望 April can't be expected 全球虚拟货币市场走到今天，“黑三月”的行情显露无遗，而接下来市场如何走，对于业界来说，并不难测。现货市场的走势指明不了方向，芝加哥比特币期货市场则显示了与现货市场正相关的走势。 As the global virtual money market has come to this day, the “black March” has become apparent, and how the market goes next is not difficult for the industry. The direction of the spot market is not clear, and the Chicago Bitcoin futures market shows a positive correlation with the spot market. 根据数据显示，3月29日，CME比特币期货BTC 5月合约收跌15美元或约0.19%，为连续第六个交易日收跌，报7900美元。CBOE比特币期货XBT 5月合约收平，此前连跌两天，报7890美元。CME比特币期货BTC 6月合约收跌约0.19%，报7900美元；CBOE比特币期货XBT 6月合约收涨约0.13%，报7905美元。 According to the data, on 29 March, the CMEbit currency futures BTC fell by $15 or about 0.19 per cent in May, reporting a fall of $7,900 for the sixth consecutive transaction day. The CBOEbit currencies futures XBTs were settled in May, before falling by two days and $7890. The CMEbit currency futures BTCs fell by approximately 0.19 per cent in June and $7,900 in June; and the CBOE currencies futures XBT contracts increased by about 0.13 per cent and $795 in June. 3月30日，CME比特币期货BTC 5月合约收跌565美元，跌幅超过7.15%，为连续第七个交易日收跌，报7335美元，较2月28日收盘价跌超31.22%；CBOE比特币期货XBT 5月合约收跌650美元，跌约8.24%，报7240美元，3月份累跌约30.32%。 On 30 March, the CMEbit currency futures BTC contract fell by $565 in May, by more than 7.15 per cent, for the seventh consecutive day of trading, by $7335, or 31.22 per cent more than the 28 February collection; and the CBOEbits futures contract fell by $650, or 8.24 per cent, or $7240, or 30.32 per cent in March. 然而，从某种迹象上来看，比特币的下跌正是在2017年12月28日芝加哥期货交易所正式推出比特币期货开始。 However, in some signs, the decline in bitcoin began with the official launch of bitcoin futures by the Chicago Futures Exchange on 28 December 2017. 华夏财富君了解到，北京时间周一（2017年12月18日）清晨7点，美国芝加哥商业交易所集团 （CME，“芝商所”）旗下的比特币期货产品正式上市交易，主力近月合约（2018年1月到期）高开至20650美元，但是也就是那时候，比特币现货和期货市场同步下跌。 Fortune Huaxia learned that Monday, Beijing time (18 December 2017), at 7 a.m., Bitcoin futures were officially traded under the auspices of the United States Business Exchange Group in Chicago (CME, “Case House”), and that the main monthly contract (expiring in January 2018) was up to $20650, but that was when the Bitcoin spot and futures market fell in tandem. 在业内人士看来，美国推出的比特币期货已经成了名副其实的做空工具！ In the eyes of the industry, America's introduction of bitcoin futures has become a truly empty tool! 对于目前的市场情况，Coindesk的首席分析师Omkar Godbole表示，虽然比特币价格走势下行会证实“死亡交叉”形态出现，但近期的比特币超卖情况仍然暗示，不能排除比特币价格还有下行空间的可能性。 With respect to the current market situation, Coindisk's chief analyst, Omkar Godble, stated that while the downward trend in Bitcoin prices would confirm the emergence of a “death intersecting” pattern, the recent oversale of Bitcoin still implied that the possibility of a downswing in bitcoin prices could not be ruled out. “若比特币价格下跌至7240美元，就会证实出现了‘死亡交叉形态’，比特币价格有可能进一步下跌至6600美元，但届时技术分析指标RSI可能会显示比特币出现了超卖情况。不过，要注意的是，一旦比特币价格跌至6600美元下方，则不排除将进一步抛售至6000美元。” Omkar Godbole称。 “If the price of bitcoin falls to $7240, it will be confirmed that there is a ‘circumstance of death’, and bitcoin prices are likely to fall further to $6,600, but then the technical analysis indicator RSI may show that bitcoin is oversold. However, it is important to note that once the price of bitcoin falls below $6,600, it does not preclude further sale to $6,000.” Omkar Godbole claims. 值得关注的是，在虚拟货币数字圈，尽管中国监管层已经将各大交易平台关闭，不过以火币网为代表的几家大型数字货币交易所都纷纷将服务器移至海外，并且一直“不死心”想取得海外政府的合法牌照。在3月24日，火币网通过官方微博（113.6， -2.53， -2.18%）正式宣布，火币美国（HBUS）已经在美国获得MSB牌照，这意味着HBUS可以在美国的大多数州开展币币交易，而另外一家名为币安的交易所想在日本获取交易牌照。 It is interesting to note that in the virtual currency digital circle, while China’s regulatory hierarchy has shut down major trading platforms, several large digital currency exchanges, represented by the Democratic People’s Republic of China’s Democratic Republic of Korea, have moved their servers overseas and have been “indifferent” to obtaining legal licences from overseas governments. On March 24, the Democratic Currency Network officially announced through official Wiebob (113.6, -2.53, -2.18%) that the United States of America (HBUS) has acquired MSB licences in the United States, which means that HBUS can conduct currency transactions in most states of the United States, while another exchange called Currency Ann wants to obtain trading licences in Japan. 新浪科技公众号 “掌”握科技鲜闻 （微信搜索techsina或扫描左侧二维码关注） "Knock on the technology" is anecdotal. 加载中
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