比特币不断猛涨的背后逻辑到底是什么？未来比特币会变成废代码么？

资讯 2024-06-22 阅读:142 评论:0

如果遮住下图左上角的标识，你能识别出这是什么品种吗？If you cover the markings on the top left corner of the chart, ca...

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如果遮住下图左上角的标识，你能识别出这是什么品种吗？

If you cover the markings on the top left corner of the chart, can you identify this species?

熟悉交易品种的投机客看一眼右边近2万美元的价格，应该能猜到这是今年表现极其疯狂的比特币，近期比特币更是一个月涨了7000美元。目前比特币总市值超过3500亿美元，也接近历史最高水准。

Speculators familiar with the variety of transactions look at the price of almost $20,000 on the right, and should be able to guess that this year's extremely insane , which has recently increased by $7,000 a month. The total market value of Bitcoins is now over $350 billion, which is near the highest level in history.

比特币说到底就是一串数字，为何这么一串代码数字却会受到这样的追捧。从最初几美分钱到如今的近2万美元，这背后究竟有何原理？

Bitcoin is, in the end, a string of numbers, and why is that code number being promoted? From the first few cents to almost $20,000 today, what is the rationale behind this?

比特币最初的概念由“中本聪”在2009年提出，“中本聪”这个名字仅仅是个代号，真实身份至今无人知晓。根据“中本聪”的思路，比特币的使用就像电子邮件，无需Swift无需银行中转，你可以给世界上的任何人发送比特币。但是与邮件不同的是，比特币这样点对点的传输是没有中央服务器或托管方，交易的验证和记录及整个系统的维护都由矿工进行。

The original concept of Bitcoin was put forward in 2009 by the “medium bellicose” and the name “medium bellicose” is merely a code name whose true identity is unknown. According to the concept of “medium bellicose,” Bitcoin is used like an e-mail, and you can send bitcoins to anyone in the world without the need for Swift to make a bank transfer.

矿工是指在比特币系统中挖掘比特币的人。比特币系统每十分钟会将需要处理的交易信息打包成一个区块（ block ），相当于一道抢答题，矿工抢答到的几率与持有的算力成正比，完成抢答题的矿工即可获得一定数量的比特币作为区块奖励。因此由于矿工是直接介入比特币的挖掘，受利益驱动他们自发会维护整个比特币的系统。

The miners are those who dig bitcoin in bitcoin. The bitcoin system wraps the transaction information that they need to process into a block (block) every 10 minutes, amounting to a question-and-answer match, and the miners get a certain amount of bitcoin as a block incentive to do it. So, because the miners are directly involved in bitcoin excavations, they are motivated by the benefits of maintaining the entire bitcoin system.

“中本聪”在提出区块链概念时，也许无法想到衍生出的比特币能上涨至数万美元。这其实背后最大的“功臣”是中国投机客。很奇怪，可能是中国人骨子里更习惯掌控源头生意的基因，在国外几乎都热衷于炒币去做趋势的时候，中国投机客都是以买矿机，自己来挖比特币进行抛售。

In proposing the concept of a block chain, it may not be possible to imagine that the derivative bitcoin could rise to tens of thousands of dollars. The biggest credit for this is the Chinese speculator.

最初设计中挖矿并不是重点，只是维护系统运行的一个附属品。但是自2013年起，中国境内就相继成立各类矿机公司——小强矿机、氪能矿机、西部矿机等等十多个矿机厂商。比特币世界很快明白了中国人的加入意味着什么——两年里，比特币的全网总运算能力增长了1.2万倍。

But since 2013, China has set up more than a dozen mining companies – small and powerful, kryptonite, western, and so on. The world of Bitcoin quickly understood what Chinese participation meant – and in two years, Bitcoin’s total net capacity increased 12,000 times.

其实早在2009年12月12日，“中本聪”就曾表示，不希望用户采用运算能力更高的GPU来制造矿机并挖矿。希望每一个比特币钱包的拥有者都能够参与整个系统的决策机制。

Indeed, as early as December 12, 2009, “Middle East” stated that users did not want to use the higher computing power of the GPU to make mine machines and dig mines. It was hoped that every owner of the Bitcoin wallet would be able to participate in the system’s decision-making mechanisms.

在比特币推出的初期，个人打开电脑就能进入比特币世界体验挖矿，在当时随便一个广告网站做个任务都能拿0.0001个比特币的年代，想要拥有一点属于的自己的比特币真的太容易了。全网运算能力的飙升，使个人挖矿变得毫无意义。挖矿行业在资本加大投入后，创造出成千上万台的ASIC矿机，使得挖矿成为算力顶尖的投机客才能进行的行业。

In the early days of Bitcoin’s launch, individuals were able to access the Bitcoin world by opening computers, and in those years when any ad site could get 0.0001 bitcoins, it was easy to have a bit of its own bitcoins. The surge in network capacity made it meaningless for individuals to dig.

但任何事情其实都是有两面性的，初期资本的涌入以及大量矿机的出现，也让比特币这个可能仅仅会流通于极客和自由主义者的产品被疯狂追捧，甚至出圈到普通人的生活中。

But there are two sides to everything, and the influx of initial capital and the emergence of a large number of mining machines have also allowed Bitcoin, a product that may simply be circulating among the extremes and liberals, to be ravaging and even going out into the lives of ordinary people.

比特币不断猛涨的背后逻辑到底是什么？未来比特币会变成废代码么？

但是即然比特币不是普通的一串代码，而是一个交易产品，那背后就存在着金融风险。

But then Bitcoin is not an ordinary code, but a traded product, and there is a financial risk behind it.

金融风险中的监管风险是首要。由于比特币的天然属性，导致太多黑钱流入这个市场，比特币经常被用于罪犯活动。这样不受监管的加密资产始终是各国的头疼产品，若开始对比特币披上各类枷锁，让比特币再次回归小众产品又或不再是分布式区块链技术的产物，那意味着比特币最初被创造出来的目的就被破坏了，这样的比特币是否还存在着储值和交易需求就需要打上一个问号了。

Because of the natural nature of Bitcoin, which leads to too much black money flowing into the market, bitcoin is often used for criminal activity. Unregulated encrypted assets are always a problem for countries, and it would be a question of whether Bitcoin’s storage value and demand for transactions would be compromised if it were to start wearing various kinds of shackles, allowing it to return again to smaller products or not to be the product of distributed block chain technology.

比特币的贬值及杠杆风险或许会引发大雪崩。2008年金融危机前， ABS次级房贷崩溃前，没有人相信它会引发如此大的危机。资产证券化这一金融衍生品让华尔街赚的盆满钵满，但是当还贷人还不起房贷，而当同一资产又不断地被抵押导致杠杆的上升，让整个产品崩溃的是如此吓人。

Prior to the 2008 financial crisis, no one believed that ABS subprime mortgages would trigger such a crisis. Securitization of assets, a financial derivative, had made Wall Street full of money, but when a lender could not afford a mortgage, and when the same asset was constantly mortgaged, it led to an increase in leverage, which was so scary that the entire product collapsed.

当时全球范围内美元的流动性紧张到几乎所有资产在抛售以求获得美元现金在手，通过美联储的美元互换协议额度能看出，今年疫情引发的流动性紧张依旧没有超出当时的水准。

At that time, the liquidity of the United States dollar was strained globally to the extent that almost all of its assets were being sold in order to obtain cash in dollars. As can be seen from the dollar swap agreement with the Federal Reserve, the liquidity strain caused by the epidemic this year remains at the same level as at that time.

放到比特币上也同样存在类似的风险。区块奖励的减半意味着矿工的比特币收益急剧下降，若比特币的单价无法维系矿工的成本的话，势必将会影响挖矿的热情。这对于整个比特币的市值来说可能就是天灾。

A similar risk exists on bitcoin. The halving of block incentives means that the profits of miners in bitcoin fall sharply. If Bitcoin’s unit price does not support the cost of miners, it will affect the enthusiasm for mining.

真实世界有央行有金管局对主权货币进行一定程度地干预，但是比特币没有。因此比特币可以下跌，但不能长期持续处于矿工的成本价以下，否则这将形成连锁反应引发比特币的抛售。而比特币期货的杠杆让这样的抛售会形成挤兑效应导致雪崩惨剧的发生。

There are central banks in the real world that have some degree of intervention by the Monetary Authority in sovereign currencies, but not by Bitcoin. So bitcoin can fall, but it cannot remain below the cost of miners for a long time, otherwise it will create a chain reaction that triggers the sale of bitcoins.

比特币不断猛涨的背后逻辑到底是什么？未来比特币会变成废代码么？