6月13日,美股遭遇“黑色星期一”。同期,虚拟货币市场也经历了2022年以来致暗的黑天鹅时刻。
On June 13, the US shares met with Black Monday. During the same period, the virtual money market also experienced black swan moments, which have been dark since 2022. & nbsp;
当日,比特币和以太坊的单日下行震幅均超过15%。截至6月15日,比特币和以太坊连日下跌,价格分别逼近2万美元和1000美元关口,较2021年11月创下的历史高位68700美元和4890美元分别跌去70%和79%。
By 15 June, both Bitcoin and Ether had fallen by more than 15%. By 15 June, Bitcoin and Etheria had fallen by nearly $20,000 and $1,000, respectively, down 70% and 79%, respectively, from the historic high of $68,700 and $4890 created in November 2021.
2022年开年,比特币价格尚在47000美元上方,一季度最低价格在31000美元左右。自4月起,比特币震荡下行,并在5月告别4万美元关口,一路跌破3万美元。以太坊同样经历震荡,并在5月接连跌破3000美元和2000美元关口,6月10日起,以太坊价格也一路直线走跌。
In the beginning of 2022, the price of Bitcoin was above $47,000, with a minimum price of $31,000 a quarter. Since April, Bitcoin has gone down, and in May it said goodbye to $40,000.
截至北京时间6月15日20时,比特币价格回到21000美元上方,以太坊价格约1100美元。约一年半以前,比特币和以太坊分别在2020年12月和2021年1月首次突破2万美元和1000美元。
By 2000 Beijing time, June 15th, the price of Bitcoin had returned to over $21,000, and at around $1,100 in the taupulega. About a year and a half ago, Bitcoin and Etheria first broke $20,000 and $1,000 in December 2020 and January 2021, respectively.
有报道称,截至6月13日18时,24小时内有超12万人爆仓,爆仓的金额达473亿元人民币。据非小号数据统计,6月13日和14日,比特币大单爆仓总额分别超过26亿元和60亿元,截至目前,6月15日的大单爆仓总额超过50亿元。该金额未统计FTX等头部交易所数据。各家平台的统计结果存在差异。
According to reports, at 1800 hours on 13 June, there were more than 120,000 explosions in 24 hours, amounting to RMB 47.3 billion. According to non-quantifiable data, on 13 and 14 June, the size of the Bitcoin large single blast warehouse totalled more than RMB 2.6 billion and 6 billion, respectively, and as of 15 June, the total value of the large single explosion totalled more than RMB 5 billion.
在比特币和以太坊领跌之外,除了部分稳定币,体量前十的加密币种近7日的跌幅均超过20%。加密货币市场体量缩水。据CoinMarketCap统计,截至UTC时间6月14日8时,加密货币市场总市值为9449亿美元,不足万亿美元。
With the exception of Bitcoin and Etheria, with some stable currencies, the top 10 encoded currencies have fallen by almost 20% in almost seven days. The encrypt currency market is shrinking. According to CoinMarketCap, the total market value of the encrypted currency market as of 8 p.m. on June 14, UTC time was $94.4 billion, less than trillion.
就目前的加密货币市场情况, 欧易研究院高级研究员赵伟分析,影响近期行情下行的因素有很多,其中主要的影响因素之一还是上周公布的美CPI指数创下了40年来的新高,超出了市场预期。
In terms of the current situation in the crypto-currency market, and the analysis of Zhao Wei, a senior researcher at the OIL Institute, there are many factors affecting the recent downturn, one of which is that the US-CPI index, published last week, has reached a 40-year high, exceeding market expectations. & nbsp;
赵伟表示,这不仅代表此前美联储加息没有达到期望的抑制通胀目标,很可能在本周三的美联储6月 会议不仅会坚持货币紧缩,并且加息幅度将在预期的50个基点基础上有进一步激进的可能,加息对于投资市场意味着资金流出,而体现在加密市场上就是整体币价的持续下跌;同时也代表加密市场等其他次级投资市场需要继续消化CPI超出预期而带来的美股下跌的后果。
Zhao Wei said that not only did the Fed’s interest hike not meet the desired inflation-restriction targets, but it is likely that the Fed’s June   will be held up this Wednesday; the meeting will not only hold on to monetary tightening, but will also have the potential for further radicalization on the basis of the expected 50 basis points, which would mean capital outflows for the investment market, as reflected in the continuing decline in overall currency prices in the encrypted market; it will also represent the need for other sub-investment markets, such as the crypto market, to continue to absorb the consequences of the decline in the United States stock of CPI’s excess than expected. & nbsp;
其表示,第二个主要影响因素就是stETH发生脱锚,进而引发了ETH币价的进一步暴跌。因为原本承诺Lido能够1:1兑换ETH2.0的stETH因为某机构暴雷抛售发生脱锚,这势必导致大量ETH砸盘“围猎”stETH,进而引发连环崩盘。此外,从目前来看,加密市场作为美股的次级市场难以逃脱相关因素的影响。
It states that the second major influencing factor is the break-up of stETH, which led to a further sharp fall in the prices of ETH. Because of the promise that Lido would be able to break the anchor of ETH 2.0 as a result of the sale of an agency's thunderstorm, this will lead to a large amount of ETH smashing “rounding” of stETH, which will lead to a series of crashes. Moreover, it is currently difficult for the encryption market, as a secondary market for the United States stock, to escape the influence of the relevant factors.
加密行业参与者Sam介绍,stETH是Lido的项目,若在Lido存ETH(以太坊),Lido会发个stETH的凭证,等以太坊2.0版本达成后,可取回1.06个以太坊,年化超过4%。
Sam, a participant in the encryption industry, explained that the stETH is a Lido project, and if there is an ETH (Etheria) in Lido, Lido will issue a stETH certificate, and when it is achieved in Taiteng version 2.0, it will be possible to return 1.06 ethers, with annualization of more than 4%. & nbsp;
据其称,stETH在去中心化金融(Defi)市场做成了流动性产品,从而有了stETH:ETH价格,通常在0.99以上;由于stETH也可以存在去中心化借贷项目如AAVE作为抵押品,形成了次贷;stETH:ETH的流动性包括在链上的Curve项目以及主流交易所也有交易对,流动性较大。其认为,参考Luna事件,一切流动性都可能归零。
According to it, the stETH became a liquid product in the decentralized financial (Defi) market, resulting in a stETH: ETH price, usually above 0.99; subprime lending, because of the existence of decentralized lending projects, such as AAVE as collateral; and stETH: ETH's liquidity, including the Curve on the chain and the mainstream exchange, is also traded and mobile.
对于分析师提到的某机构暴雷抛售,Sam进一步解释,市场在热议加密借贷平台Celsius 和对冲基金机构 Three Arrow Capital (三箭资本 3AC)大规模撤出stETH。三箭资本还被传出受到追加保证金通知(MarginCall)围堵。派盾统计,据推测与三箭资本相关地址(0x71开头)已陆续被清算8511枚、3346枚、1716枚和2681枚以太坊。
Sam further explained that the market was blocked by the notice of a supplementary bond (MarginCall) for the sale of an institution mentioned by the analyst, and that the market was blocked by the hotly negotiated encrypted lending platform Celsius & nbsp; and hedge fund institutions & nbsp; Three & nbsp; Arrow & nbsp; Capital & nbsp; Capital & nbsp; Capital & nbsp; 3AC) for the massive withdrawal of stETH.
三箭资本由Su Zhu和Kyle Davies创立于2012年,此前还参投了暴雷的Luna项目。近日,三箭资本被自称用户的网友指控,疑似挪用客户资金。Su Zhu在14日删除了社交媒体账号简介中包括以太坊等代币标签,并在社交媒体发布消息称:“我们正在与有关方面进行沟通,并完全致力于解决这个问题。”Su Zhu并未明确所回应的“问题”的具体内容。
Three arrow capital was created by Su Zhu and Kyle & nbsp; Davies was created in 2012 and was previously involved in the Luna Project of Thunderbolts. Recently, three arrow capital was accused of misappropriation of client funds by alleged users. Su Zhu deleted a social media account profile on 14 that included a currency label such as the Tai Lok and published a message in the social media saying: “We are communicating with the parties and are fully committed to solving the problem.” Su Zhu did not specify the specific content of the “problem” that was answered. & nbsp;
与此同时,原本被围观质疑属于三箭资本的高清算风险账户,一个以0x40开头的地址已在15日晚些时候被区块链分析公司Nansen移除三箭资本标签。该风险地址疑不属于三箭资本。各类传言频出,“巨鲸”的风险是否已出清以及对市场的影响尚存疑。
At the same time, the high liquidation risk account, which belonged to the capital of the three arrows, had been removed by the block chain analysis company Nansen in late 15 days at an address beginning of 0x40. The risk address was suspected not to be the capital of the three arrows.
蓝鲸新金融 金子琪
Blue Whale New Finance & nbsp; Golden Gigi
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