币圈云枫：币圈市场合约到底是什么？ 币圈合约到底是什么？为什么建议普通人不要做合约？最近数字货币市场行情剧烈波动，昨天又听到群里的一个朋友说自己做合约爆仓了...
资讯 2024-06-22 阅读:60 评论:0
币圈合约到底是什么？为什么建议普通人不要做合约？最近数字货币市场行情剧烈波动，昨天又听到群里的一个朋友说自己做合约爆仓了，有些感慨。
What is a currency-circle contract? Why are ordinary people advised not to make contracts?
“不要碰合约”，其实已经算是整个数字货币市场上大多数人的共识了，他们甚至换了很多种方式来表达这个意思，比如：“合约是魔鬼”，“合约是*****，会让人上瘾”。但是不管你怎么劝，总还是有很多新人朋友想去尝试合约，最终他们在合约上亏损很严重，甚至走上破产的道路，为什么会发生这种情况呢?
“Don't touch the contract”, which is actually the consensus of most people in the entire digital money market, who have even expressed it in a number of different ways, such as: “The contract is the devil”, “the contract is ****, it's addictive.” But whatever you talk about, there are still a lot of new people who want to try the contract, and they end up losing a lot of money on the contract, or even going bankrupt.
其实要理解他们的想法也不难，一部分新人朋友是明知道合约是赌博，但是他就是来赌博的，他觉得这样来钱快、刺激、他们是把合约交易当成了“线上的澳门赌场”，这种没有什么好说的，只要自己承担后果就行;另外还有很多朋友，对于合约有一些误解，他们认为：“如果我能看准大方向，那么上杠杆合约可以放大盈利，有何不可呢?即使我有时会判断错方向，但是只要我及时止损就行了，那从长期看来，我一定是亏少赢多，为什么在这种情况下我不做合约呢?那不是傻吗?”
In fact, it's easy to understand what they think, because some of the new people's friends know that the contract is gambling, but he comes to gamble, and he thinks it's quick money, exciting, they think it's "the Macao Casino on the Line," and there's nothing to say about it, as long as they take the consequences themselves; and there's a lot of other friends, who think, "If I look in the right direction, why can't the leverage contract magnify the profit? Even if I sometimes judge the wrong direction, I just have to stop the damage in time. Then, in the long run, I must have lost a lot of money. Why don't I make the contract in this case? Is that not stupid?"
一、合约改变了风险的性质，把你对长期趋势的判断变成对短期波动率的赌博
I. The contract changes the nature of the risk and transforms your judgement on long-term trends into a gamble on short-term fluctuations
我们先来回答这个问题：“为什么即使你能看懂大趋势，你还是不能做合约。”
Let's start with the question: "Why can't you make a contract even if you can understand the big trends?"
每个人对大趋势的定义不太一样，有些人认为4小时的K线变化趋势就是大趋势，有些人认为1天的趋势是大趋势，有些人则认为1-4年的趋势才是大趋势，每个人对趋势的定义不一样，所以，你认为你看得懂大趋势，不一定就是真正能看懂。
The definition of large trends varies from one person to another, with some thinking that a four-hour K-line change trend is a big one, while others think a one-day trend is a big one, while others think that a one-to-four-year trend is a big one and that the definition of trends varies from one person to another, so you think that you can understand the big trends, not necessarily really.
事实上，即使你能看懂大方向、大趋势，你最好的方法仍然是持币、囤币，而不是做合约。
In fact, even if you can see the big directions and trends, the best way to do it is to hold and hoard, not to contract.
因为长期的大趋势要配合着长期的投资理念才行，而现货、囤币才是长期的投资理念。
Because long-term trends need to be accompanied by long-term investment concepts, which are the concept of cash, money-stocking and long-term investment.
这背后更本质的原因是：杠杆改变了风险的性质，把你对长期趋势的判断变成对短期波动率的赌博。
The more fundamental reason behind this is that leverage changes the nature of risk and transforms your judgement on long-term trends into a gamble on short-term fluctuations.
当你没有加杠杆的时候，只要你的大方向判断的对，你只需要耐心等待就行了，时间是你的朋友。可是，当你加了杠杆的时候，风险的性质改变了。既然你看的是长期的趋势，你要承担的就是长期、大幅的波动风险，不加杠杆的时候你可以应对这种长期、大幅的波动风险，但是合约因为加了杠杆，所以它没有办法应付长期的波动。虽然你看好现在的市场行情，但是这个行情的实现过程当中，中间会有很多的波折，甚至会有30% 50%的单日跌幅这么大的波动，所以任何的杠杆都没有办法抗住这么大的波动，所以只要你加了杠杆，你事实上是把你对长期的判断变成了对短期波动率的赌博，
When you don't have leverage, as long as you're right in your big direction, you just have to wait patiently. But when you do, the nature of the risk changes. If you look at the long-term trend, you have to take a long-term, large-scale risk of volatility, and if you don't, you can deal with this long-term, large-scale risk of volatility, but because the contract is leveraged, it can't deal with long-term volatility. Although you look at the current market situation, there will be a lot of swings, even 30% & nbsp; 50% of one-day fluctuations, so no leverage can resist such volatility, so as long as you leverage it, you actually turn your long-term judgment into gambling for short-term fluctuations,
二、合约的魔鬼力量
II. THE COORDINARY EFFECTS OF THE CONTRACT
我们再来看第2个问题：用合约，赢的时候可以放大利润;输的时候我只要及时止损就行了，这个可以做到吗?
Let's look at the second question: With contracts, profits can be magnified when you win; when I lose, I just have to stop damage in time. Is that possible?
你做不到!
You can't!
不仅做不到，而且在实践当中你的操作一定是相反的：如果你盈利了，只要看到盈利有少许的回调，你一定会想马上止盈;如果你亏损了，你一定会想一直硬扛下去，甚至补仓。
Not only can it not be done, but in practice your actions must be the opposite: if you make a profit, if you see a small return on the profit, you'll want to stop the gain immediately; if you lose, you'll want to keep doing it, even to make up for it.
也许前面几次操作的时候，你还能够保持心智，做到及时的止损和长期让盈利增加，即使有所回调也能熬得住，但总有一次，你的心智会被迷惑，你的精力会熬不住，又会重新回到止盈不止损的老路上，而合约交易只要有一次失误，就足以毁灭你。
Perhaps in the previous operations, you were able to keep your mind in order to stop damage in time and increase profits in the long term, and to survive even if there was a return, but once in a while, your mind will be confused, your energy will be out of order, and you will return to the old way of stopping the loss, and the contract deal will be enough to destroy you with just one mistake.
为什么呢?因为合约背后有一种魔鬼的力量！
Why? Because there's a devil's power behind the contract!
在行为心理学里面有这样的说法：你赚100块钱，和你亏100块钱带给你的心理感受是不一样的，一般来说亏100块钱的痛苦感比赚100块钱幸福感强烈三倍左右。
In behavioral psychology, there is a saying that you earn 100 bucks, that you do not feel the same way that you feel when you lose 100 bucks, and that usually the pain when you lose 100 bucks is about three times greater than happiness when you earn 100 bucks.
这一点，在合约投资中体现的淋漓尽致，当你看到合约亏损的感觉和当你看到合约盈利的感觉是不一样的，前面那个亏损和失落的感觉是后面幸福感的三倍。也正是因为如此，在实际操作过程当中，你会情不自禁的受到本能的约束，只要亏损你就会硬扛，指望它反弹回来，因为这时平仓就等于亏损，这种失落的感觉太强了，以至于你很难平得掉;当你合约有盈利的时候就正好相反，只要有盈利的时候，而且盈利稍有回落，你就会想马上落袋为安，以免盈利全部消失。
And that's why, in the actual course of business, you can't help being bound by your instincts, and expect you to bounce back, because when you see a contract loss and when you see a contract profit, it's too bad; when you have a contract profit, it's just the opposite, and if you have a profit, and if you have a profit, and you have a profit, you want to lose it immediately, so that you don't lose it all.
合约背后的这种魔鬼力量非常强大，它像巨大的黑洞一样吸引着你，吸引着你总是做出错误的决策，吸引着你只要进入合约市场就跳不出来，赢了之后想赢更多，亏了之后想回本。这种基于人性基因当中的损失厌恶心理，就是合约背后的魔鬼力量！
The devil's power behind the contract is so strong that it attracts you like a big black hole, that you always make the wrong decisions, that you can't jump out of the contract market when you win, you want to win more, you lose it. This loss in human genes is the devil's power behind the contract.
这些行为已经发生很多次了，每天都在反反复复的发生，未来还会继续发生;这些行为既发生在别人身上，也会发生到你身上，它会发生在每一个参与合约交易这个人身上，这是人性的必然。
It is a human imperative that these acts, which have occurred many times, are repeated every day and will continue to occur in the future; they occur both to others and to you, and they happen to every person involved in a contractual transaction.
三、市场太小、波动率太大、流动性不够、人为操纵太多
III. Too small a market, too high volatility, insufficient liquidity, too much man-made manipulation
我们都知道数字货币市场是个非常小众的市场，目前市值非常小，波动率非常高。所以，当你用高杠杆的时候，你其实是与高波动率进行对赌，你输的概率是非常大。
We all know that the digital money market is a very small market, with very small market prices and very high volatility. So, when you use high leverage, you actually have a very high risk of losing.
截止目前整个数字货币市场的总市值加起来也就是一家中大型传统上市公司市值的规模，跟苹果这些巨头公司比都差得有点远，体量非常小。如果把整个数字货币市场当做一家中大型规模上市公司的话，那么对于资本大佬而言，单单操控这么一家公司并不是一件非常困难的事。
To date, the total market value of the entire digital money market is the size of the market value of a large and medium-sized company that is traditionally listed in the market, and it is not very difficult for a big capital company to manipulate it alone if it is treated as a large and medium-sized listed company.
另外，整个数字货币市场缺乏监管，那些希望从中获利的资本大鳄可以大摇大摆、“合理合法”的利用现有的规则，利用这些金融工具来牟利，甚至有些交易所也跟着这些资本大鳄一起联合坐庄，一方提供资金，一方提供情报，这些情报包括客户的具体仓位和具体点数。这样资本大鳄就可以提前计算好需要爆仓所需要的资金，从而完成精准狙杀，然后再动手从非常低的价格接回来，完成这一整套的“精准”操作。
Moreover, the entire digital money market lacks regulation, and the capital gators who want to profit from it can use existing rules that are swayed and “reasonable and legitimate” to make use of these financial instruments, and even some exchanges are co-located with these capital gatores, providing funds and intelligence, including customer-specific locations and specific points. So that the capital gator can calculate the amount of money needed to blow up the warehouse ahead of time, thus completing the precision sniping and then taking it back from very low prices to complete the whole set of “precision” operations.
不要太小看大佬的力量，也不要太小看资本对于利润的渴望，就像我经常说的，如果一件事有利可图，而且利润很高，那么这件事就一定会有人去做!
Don't underestimate the power of the big man, and don't underestimate the capital's desire for profit, as I often say, if one is profitable and the profit is high, then someone will do it!
四、少数几个适合合约交易的场景
IV. A handful of scenes suitable for contract transactions
那合约交易是不是完全没用呢?倒也不能说这么绝对，一个产品设计出来，而且有这么大的市场，背后肯定是有一些原因的。
Well, isn't the contract deal completely useless? I can't say it's absolute. A product is designed, and there's this big market, and there's gotta be some reason behind it.
我觉得如果你要做合约交易只能出于两种原因：
I think if you're going to make a contract deal, you can only do it for two reasons:
第1个是你要做关于现货的风险对冲。把合约当成传统的金融期货那样来做套期保值，利用合约来进行风险管理，这个是可行的，而且应该是合约的主要用途;
The first is that you need to hedge the risk of off-the-shelf transactions. It is possible to hedge contracts as traditional financial futures, using contracts for risk management, and should be the main use of contracts;
第2个是如果你一定要参与合约交易，最好使用计算机程序来做量化交易，指令的生成、发出、开仓、平仓、止盈、止损全部由机器来执行，这样一方面你的策略可以不停的迭代，根据盈利、亏损各项数据不停的优化你的策略，更关键的是，机器执行可以完全杜绝情绪的影响，把合约的“魔鬼力量”限制到最低。
The second is that if you must be involved in a contract transaction, it would be better to use the program
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