多国监管收紧加码,币圈“造富神话”破灭!想要抄底需谨慎

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  近期,国内外对于虚拟货币监管不断收紧,多家机构表示看空。比特币等虚拟货币价格大幅波动仍在持续,但仍有散户表示想进入市场抄底。对此,业内人士分析,每次散户进场都会变成机构逢高减持套现离场的“机会”。在加密数字资产市场投资情绪持续低迷的情况下,这些新抄底资金很快会被收割。

In recent times, domestic and foreign regulation of virtual money has been tightened, with many institutions expressing frustration. Virtual currency prices, such as Bitcoin, have continued to fluctuate significantly, but there are still scattered households who want to enter the market.

  多国监管收紧:比特币等虚拟货币全线暴跌

  近期,国内外对于虚拟货币监管不断收紧。

In recent times, domestic and foreign regulation of virtual currency has been tightened.

  5月19日,据外媒报道,欧洲央行在最新发布的金融稳定报告提到了加密资产的繁荣,称比特币价格的飙升超过了历史上著名的金融泡沫,如17世纪“郁金香狂热”和18世纪的 “南海泡沫”。

On 19 May, according to foreign sources, the European Central Bank, in its latest financial stabilization report, referred to the boom in encrypted assets, stating that the price of bitcoin had soared more than the historically famous financial bubbles of the 17th century “Tulip fever” and the 18th century “South China bubble”.

  5月20日,美国财政部表示,将对加密货币市场和相关交易采取更严格的监管举措,以防止逃税等非法行为滋生。财政部当天在一份报告中说,加密货币为包括逃税在内的非法活动提供便利,为政府机关侦查非法行为带来重大威胁。

On 20 May, the United States Department of the Treasury indicated that it would take stricter regulatory measures on the crypto-currency market and related transactions in order to prevent illegal practices, such as tax evasion, which, according to a report of the same day, facilitated illegal activities, including tax evasion, and posed a significant threat to government authorities in detecting illegal acts.

  5月21日,我国国务院金融稳定发展委员会召开了第五十一次会议。会议明确提出,打击比特币挖矿和交易行为!这是金融委首次对于比特币公开发声,直言“打击”,态度鲜明有力。有不少人关注到,这次金融委将比特币挖矿也列入打击范围,可谓从源头便开始扎紧篱笆。

On May 21, our State Council's Committee on Financial Stability and Development held its fifty-first meeting. The meeting made it clear that it was the first time that the Financial Committee had made a public statement about Bitcoin, saying “clash,” and that it had a strong attitude. A number of people were concerned that the Commission had included Bitcoin in the fight, starting with a tight fence at its source.

  对虚拟货币严格监管已是全球许多监管部门的共识。随着监管的收紧,仅仅在过去一周,加密货币遭遇三次价格大跳水。

Strict regulation of virtual money has become a global consensus in many regulators. As regulation has tightened, crypto-currency has experienced three major price hikes in the past week alone.

  5月19日,比特币一路狂泻,盘中暴跌30%,最低触及30500美元/枚,较4月14日64838美元/枚的新高位下跌逾50%。第二大加密货币以太币盘中也跌幅超40%。

On 19 May, Bitcoin fell by 30%, reaching a minimum of $30,500 per piece, down by more than 50% from the new height of $64838 per piece on 14 April. The second largest encrypted currency also fell by more than 40% in the Tails.

  5月20日,比特币价格重回4万美元/枚。然而,5月21日晚间,比特币再次闪崩,盘中跌至约33500美元/枚,跌幅超过19%。以太坊日内重挫逾16%,报2436.78美元/枚。

On 20 May, the price of Bitcoin returned to $40,000. On the evening of 21 May, however, Bitcoin fell again, falling to about $33,500, or more than 19 per cent. In the evening of 21 May, it fell by more than 16 per cent, at $2436.78.

  5月23日晚间,虚拟货币又一次集体崩盘,其中比特币一度跌超16%,莱特币一度跌超30%,以太币一度跌超20%。

During the evening of 23 May, the virtual currency collapsed once again, with Bitcoin falling by more than 16 per cent at a time, Leitco falling by more than 30 per cent at a time, and Tetco by more than 20 per cent at a time.

  5月24日14点,比特币下跌4.48%,为35296美元/枚,此前曾触及24小时低点31179美元/枚,较4月中旬的高点64829.14美元/枚减少了一半。以太坊跌3.9%,为2133.6美元/枚,昨日(23日)最低跌至新低点1750美元/枚,较本月早些时候创下的4382.73美元/枚的历史高点下跌60%。

On 24 May, at 14 p.m., Bitcoin fell by 4.48 per cent to $35296 per item, after touching a 24-hour low of $31,179 per item, which was half of the $6,4829.14 per item in mid-April. It fell by 3.9 per cent to $2133.6 per item. Yesterday (23 per cent) fell to a new low of $1750 per item, a 60 per cent decline from the historic high of $4382.73 per item created earlier this month.

  狗狗币、柴犬币等也集体“雪崩”。 狗狗币最低触及0.211美元/枚,半个月内大跌70%以上。

There are also collective avalanches, such as dog coins, which touch at least 0.211 dollars per piece and fall by more than 70 per cent in a six-month period.

  在这风雨欲来的形势下,曾经位列国内三大数字货币交易所之一的“火币”平台,也广而告之:为了积极配合新的行业监管政策,火币现已叫停所有的矿机售卖和衍生服务。

In this situation, the “fire money” platform, which was one of the country's three largest digital currency exchanges, has also been widely publicized: to actively complement the new industrial regulatory policy, it has now been called off all mining machines and derivative services.

  疯狂的市场:马斯克一句话就可以控制币价的走向

  在虚拟货币界,比特币、以太坊的价值备受公认,市值和流通性也位居前列,紧随其后的是各种小币种。从年初开始,狗狗币异军突起,此前,这个原本只是程序员玩笑的小币种的价格一直都没有大幅波动。

In the virtual currency world, the values of Bitcoin and Etheria are well recognized, and market value and liquidity are at the forefront, followed by a variety of small currencies. Since the beginning of the year, the price of this small currency, which was supposed to be a programmer’s joke, has not fluctuated significantly.

  转变发生在今年。2月初,特斯拉创始人马斯克多次在社交媒体发文力挺狗狗币,带动狗狗币价格暴涨60%。今年以来,狗狗币价格屡创新高,在几个月内涨幅超过200多倍,市值也一度达到约920亿美元。狗狗币的猛涨刺激了更多币圈人的“创新”,“柴犬币”“猪猪币”“皮卡丘币”“乌龟币”等币种也开始出现,币圈俨然就要变成“虚拟动物园”。但在多位业内人士看来,这些无一例外都是没有实际价值的“空气币”,而且背后往往都有“庄家”在操盘。

At the beginning of February, Tesla’s founder, Muskeh, wrote a number of coins in social media, causing the price of the dog price to rise by 60%. Since this year, the price of the dog price has been innovative, rising more than 200 times in a few months, with a market value of about $92 billion.

马斯克参加美国知名综艺节目《周六夜现场》

  5月9日,马斯克参加了美国知名综艺节目《周六夜现场》。节目中,马斯克化身财务专家,让主持人称呼其为“狗狗币之父”,他称狗狗币是“货币的未来”“势不可挡、必将席卷全球”。但在主持人连番追问下,他也承认狗狗币是“骗局”。慌乱情绪快速传导,狗狗币一度暴跌40%。

On May 9th, Musk took part in the famous American philanthropy show, Saturday Nights Live. In the show, Mask, a financial expert, told the moderator to call him the “father of the dog coin,” which he called the “future of the currency” “unstoppable and bound to spread across the globe.” But, following repeated inquiries from the moderator, he also admitted that the dog coin was a fraud.

  比特币投资者刘均(化名)认为,从市场行情的暴涨暴跌来判断,以马斯克为代表的机构正是虚拟货币幕后操盘的赢家。他举例称:当马斯克宣称可以用比特币购买特斯拉,比特币就涨了1000美元;当他宣布特斯拉暂停使用比特币支付,币价就应声下跌10%。

According to Bitcoin investor Liu Quan, the institution represented by Mask was the winner behind the virtual money curtain, judging by the surge and collapse in market conditions. He cited, for example, that when Musk claimed that Tesla could be bought in bitcoin, it rose by $1,000; when he announced that Tesla would suspend its use of bitcoins, the currency would fall by 10 per cent.

  刘均一度将马斯克视为偶像,但这段时间他改变了想法:“带头利空的是他,带头喊多的也是他,一句话就可以控制币价的走向。”作为当局者,他如今只希望机构和资本可以“带头拉盘”,适当维持比特币等主流代币的价格。

Liu, who once saw Mask as an idol, changed his mind: “He is the leader, and he is the leader, and he is the leader, and he is the one who can control the currency.” As an authority, he now only hopes that institutions and capital can “lead the draw” and properly maintain the price of mainstream tokens, such as bitcoins.

  欧易OKEx研究院研究员威廉分析,“5·19币市暴跌”,既是因为虚拟货币市场累积了大量泡沫,也是因为马斯克等人的负面言论动摇了市场对比特币价格的信心。他认为,市场追捧的大多数动物币完全是市场非理性行为的体现,反映出市场的巨大泡沫。

William, a researcher at the O’IOKEx Institute, analysed the fall in the market of $5.19, both as a result of the build-up of large bubbles in the virtual currency market and as a result of negative statements by Muskeh et al. that shaken the market’s confidence in the price of bitcoin. In his view, most of the animal coins pursued by the market were simply a manifestation of the irrational behaviour of the market, reflecting the huge bubble in the market.

  业内人士:散户的抄底行为给机构提供了套现离场的“机会”

  “原以为抄到了一个大底,现在看来很可能抄在半山腰上。”一位比特币投资者王强(化名)感慨说。5月19日晚,他在3.1万美元附近抄底比特币,此后比特币一度重返4.2万美元,让他在短短24小时获利约30%。然而,抄底的兴奋感尚未逝去,新一轮监管政策给他“当头一棒”。

“It was thought that it had been taken to the bottom, which now seems likely to be on the back of the mountain.” A bitcoin investor, Wang Qiang, lamented. On the night of May 19th, he copied the Debitcoin near $31,000, after which Bitcoin returned for $42,000, giving him about 30% of the profit in a short 24 hours. However, the excitement of the relic has not yet passed, and a new round of regulatory policy has given him a “first shot”.

比特币矿场

  多位加密数字资产业内人士指出,不断加码的监管措施将令比特币价格变得“跌不见底”。与此对应的是,衡量加密数字资产市场焦虑程度的一大流动指标——恐惧贪婪指数触及14,表明市场正陷入极度恐惧;但在一个月前,这个指数高达55,凸显市场极度贪婪。

Several insiders of the crypto-digital asset industry have pointed out that constant additions to regulation will make bitcoin prices “unfinished.” By contrast, one of the moving indicators for measuring the level of anxiety in the crypto-digital asset market — the fear and greed index, which reaches 14, suggests that the market is in a state of extreme fear; but a month ago, the index was as high as 55, highlighting the extreme greed of the market.

  据了解,不少华尔街投资机构已悄然清仓所有比特币头寸。一位华尔街对冲基金经理者直言,近日中美密集出台一系列针对加密数字资产的从严监管措施,都在给加密数字资产投机潮“降温”,导致越来越多投资机构预感到比特币未来成长空间将受到极大限制,加之马斯克“变脸”与美联储拟缩减QE,都令比特币估值像断了线的风筝,没人知道它的底部在哪里。在他看来,机构的离场,正令比特币多头变成“一盘散沙”——任何散户的抄底行为,都很快变成机构逢高减持套现离场的“机会”。

It is known that a number of Wall Street investment agencies have emptied all bitcoin positions. A Wall Street hedge fund manager, speaking out, recently introduced a series of tight regulatory measures against encrypted digital assets in China and in the United States, “reduced” the speculation of encrypted digital assets, which has led to an increasing number of investment agencies presumably limiting the future growth space of bitcoin, and the “false face” of Musk and the Fed's proposed reduction of QE, which has caused Bitcoin to be valued like a broken-line kite, and nobody knows where its bottom is.

  5月19日,新华社刊文《比特币、狗狗币……别盲目相信天花乱坠的‘币圈神话’》。文章指出,狂热的投机客、煽风点火的宣传、坐享其成的中介……投机炒作盛行,推动虚拟货币市场走热。有关炒币的营销信息在互联网平台上屡见不鲜,加上一些自媒体和“炒币客”的推波助澜,不少投资者由此“入坑”。但这类宣传信息有意放大了虚拟货币的所谓高额回报率,却时常刻意忽略投资的高风险。文章提醒到“消费者还是要增强风险意识,不参与虚拟货币交易炒作活动,千万别轻信虚拟货币的‘造富神话’”。

On May 19, the Xinhua News agency published Bitcoin, Dogcoin...don't blindly believe in the fall of the ‘the myth of the currency’. The article points out that fanatical speculators, proselytizing propaganda, and entertaining intermediaries... speculators are prevalent, pushing the virtual money market to heat up. Marketing information about snags is common on Internet platforms, coupled with a number of media and “loafers” that help investors to “get into the pit.” But such publicity messages deliberately magnify the so-called high rate of return on virtual money, but often ignore the high risk of investment.

  (大众网·海报新闻编辑高娜 综合新华网、中新经纬、中国青年报和中国证券报等消息)

(Gona, News Editor, Mass Network, Poster News, Xinhua Integrated Network, Sino-Chinese Youth, Chinese Youth and China Securities)

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