21世纪经济报道记者 家俊辉 特约记者 胡天姣 广州报道
{\bord0\shad0\alphaH3D}Economy Reporter for the 21st Century
正如市场普遍预期，比特币快速打破了此前的历史最高价。
As generally expected by the market, Bitcoin quickly broke past historical peaks.
21世纪经济报道记者注意到，北京时间3月5日晚间，近期涨势迅猛的比特币在盘中一度突破69000美元，最高触及69206美元，刷新了2021年11月创下的历史最高价68999.99美元。拉长时间线来看，今年以来，比特币涨幅已经超过50%。
Economic Reporters for the 21st Century noted that, in the evening of 5 March Beijing time, the recent booming bitcoin was one step ahead of $69,000, reaching up to $69206, and refreshing the historic peak of $689.99.99 that was set in November 2021. On the long line, it has increased by more than 50% since this year.
比特币飙升探因
Bitcoin soared.
时间回溯到2021年11月，比特币在冲上历史高点后，在美联储持续加息、全球金融监管趋严等多重因素的影响下，价格在短期内急速下滑至16000多美元，之后在波动中回升。
After going back to November 2021, when Bitcoin hit historical heights, prices fell sharply to more than $16,000 in the short term, and then rebounded in volatility, under the influence of multiple factors such as the Fed's continued interest hike and the tightening of global financial regulations.
对于近期比特币的迅猛涨势，多位业内人士在接受记者采访时表示，同样是由多重因素驱动。在中国通信工业协会区块链专委会共同主席，香港区块链协会荣誉主席于佳宁看来，主要包括比特币现货ETF吸引资金持续流入、全球宏观经济环境的不确定性加剧了投资者资产配置多样化的需求，社会大众和主流金融机构对数字资产的接受度逐渐提高，以及金融衍生品市场动态的影响等。
In response to the recent surge in Bitcoin, several insiders, in interviews with journalists, said that it was also driven by multiple factors. In the view of Janin, co-chair of the China Communications Industry Association’s District Chain Commission, the Honorary President of the Hong Kong Block Chain Association, including, inter alia, the continued inflow of funds attracted by Bitcoin spot ETFs, the global macroeconomic environment’s uncertainty has exacerbated the need for diversification of investors’ asset allocation, the increasing acceptance of digital assets by the general public and mainstream financial institutions, and the impact of financial derivative market dynamics.
于佳宁进一步向记者指出，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）在今年初批准比特币现货 ETF是比特币近期“高歌猛进”的关键催化剂。据了解，当地时间1月11日，SEC正式批准了包括贝莱德等机构在内的11只比特币现货ETF的申请，这被业内视为比特币和加密货币行业的“分水岭”。
Yu Jianing further pointed out to journalists that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved Bitcoin spot ETFs early this year as a key catalyst for Bitcoins’ recent “song march.” It is understood that on 11 January, local time, SEC officially approved 11 Bitcoins spot ETF applications, including from institutions such as Belede, which is considered a “watershed” in the business of Bitcoins and cryptonomic currency.
“比特币现货ETF的批准开创了数字资产与传统金融市场融合的新篇章，为大量的机构和个人投资者进入比特币投资领域提供了一条便捷、合规的通道”，于佳宁进一步向记者解释称，一方面比特币现货 ETF 的出现极大提高了比特币作为一种投资资产的可接近性，从而引入大量新的资金流入比特币市场。特别是大型机构投资者，通常受到严格的投资限制，而比特币现货 ETF为这些机构带来了直接投资比特币的机会，这带动大量的华尔街资金流入比特币市场。
“The approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF opens a new chapter in the integration of digital assets with traditional financial markets, providing easy and compliant access for a large number of institutional and individual investors to the bitcoin investment sector”, Janin further explained to journalists that, on the one hand, the advent of the Bitcoin spot ETF has greatly enhanced the proximity of Bitcoin as an investment asset, thereby introducing a large amount of new capital into the Bitcoin market. In particular, large institutional investors are often subject to strict investment restrictions, while the Bitcoin spot ETF offers these institutions direct investment opportunities in bitcoin, which has led to a significant flow of Wall Street funds into the Bitcoin market.
另一方面比特币现货 ETF 的批准向市场传递了一个积极信号，即数字资产正在逐渐获得主流金融体系的认可，“这种信号效应加强了市场对比特币长期价值的信心，吸引更多长期投资者参与”，于佳宁指出。截至目前，市场上的比特币现货ETF的总资产扩大至近500亿美元。而最新消息显示，韩国金融监管机构正在讨论批准比特币现货ETF的前景。
On the other hand, the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF sends a positive signal to the market that digital assets are gradually gaining recognition in the mainstream financial system, “a signal effect that enhances confidence in the long-term value of the market and attracts more long-term investors,” according to Janing. To date, the market’s total assets of the Bitcoin spot ETF have expanded to nearly $50 billion.
此外，比特币即将到来的“减半”也是助推其价格“起飞”的关键因素。“减半”是比特币特有的发行机制，大约每4年比特币挖矿奖励将减半，最新一次“减半”预计发生在今年4月份。“比特币‘减半’历来被视为推升其价值的重要事件，这直接影响比特币的供给，理论上在需求保持不变的情况下，减少供应会推高价格”，于佳宁指出。
Moreover, the upcoming “50-per-cent” of Bitcoin is also a key factor contributing to the “take-off” of its prices. “50-per-cent” is a bitcoin-specific distribution mechanism, with about half of the Bitcoin incentive for mining every four years, and the latest “50-per-cent” is expected to take place in April this year.
投资风险不容忽视
Investment risk cannot be ignored
当前，在比特币强劲上涨的势头下，特别是价格再创新高后，市场对其后续行情充满期满。有个人投资者向记者直言，他对比特币的这一轮行情非常兴奋，在年初就追加了投资，希望涨势可以延续。
At present, with the momentum of a strong increase in bitcoin, especially with the re-innovation of prices, the market has come to an end. A personal investor has spoken out to journalists, and he is very excited about this round of Bitcoin, with additional investment at the beginning of the year, hoping that the upturn will continue.
东吴证券研究团队在研报中表示，2024年比特币将迎来三重利好，包括“减半”、比特币生态崛起、美联储降息预期。但于佳宁向记者指出，比特币现货 ETF的出现和即将到来的“减半”将在短期内继续影响比特币的价格，但其长期走势仍受到多种因素的综合影响。“比特币作为代表性的数字资产，具备了金融属性、产业属性、科技属性三大要素，同时已经高度金融化，大概率摆脱不了‘周期性’金融规律，也就是‘有涨必有跌、有跌必有涨’，其价格波动受多种因素影响，包括市场情绪、宏观经济环境、技术创新等”。
According to East Wu’s securities research team, in 2024, Bitcoin will gain three-fold benefits, including “50%”, Bitcoin’s ecological rise, and the Fed’s expectations of interest reduction. But, according to Janin, the emergence of Bitcoin’s spot ETF and the forthcoming “50%” will continue to affect Bitcoin’s prices in the short term, but its long-term course is still influenced by a combination of multiple factors. “Bitcoin, as a representative digital asset, has three main elements of financial attributes, industrial attributes, and technological attributes, while it is already highly financialized, probably with a rate of not getting rid of the “cyclical” financial rule, that is, ‘there is always going to be a fall, there is going to be a fall, there is going to be a fall’, its price volatility is influenced by a number of factors, including market sentiment, the macroeconomic environment, technological innovation, etc.”.
OKX研究院高级研究员赵伟也向记者表示，影响比特币价格走势的因素非常多，比如政策法规、供需关系、周期性调整等，这些因素都具有相当程度的不确定性。“因此我们建议投资者不要沉浸在价格涨跌之中，而是树立科学的投资观念，提升自身的风险意识”。
Zhao Wei, a senior researcher at the OkX Institute, also told journalists that there are a number of factors that influence the price movement of bitcoin, such as policy regulations, supply-demand relationships, and cyclical adjustments, all of which have considerable uncertainty. “We therefore suggest that investors should not be immersed in price hikes or falls, but rather develop a scientific investment concept and raise their own risk awareness.”
于佳宁也提醒潜在的投资者，在考虑投资比特币时，要透过高收益率看到背后的高风险，不要被FOMO（恐惧失去机会）情绪控制。他强调，数字资产依然是风险较高的投资资产，资产价格的涨跌幅度和速度都与传统资产有显著差异。“对任何市场都要‘敬畏而不盲目’，尤其是在投资数字资产这一新兴领域之前，一定要对区块链技术、分布式商业逻辑、数字金融体系进行全面、透彻的学习理解，这样才能清晰地认知相关数字资产的内在价值，从本质上控制投资的风险”。
Yu Jianing also reminded potential investors that when considering investments in bitcoin, they should see the high risks behind them through a high rate of return and not be controlled by FOMO (fearing out of opportunity). He stressed that digital assets remained high-risk investment assets, with significant variations in the magnitude and speed of asset prices from traditional assets. “Be wary and not blind for any market, especially before investing in the emerging field of digital assets, it is important to have a comprehensive and thorough learning understanding of the technology of the chain, distributed business logic, digital financial systems, so that the intrinsic value of the related digital assets can be clearly understood and the risks of investment inherently controlled”.
截至发稿前，北京时间3月6日0:15，比特币波动至65000美元左右，较上一个交易日下滑近4%。
As of 6 March Beijing time, at 00:15 p.m., Bitcoin fluctuated to around $65,000, down nearly 4 per cent from the previous trading day.
（编辑：周鹏峰）
(Edit: Zhou Peng Peak)
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