21世纪经济报道记者胡天姣 深圳报道
区块链社区正在观望，九月中旬可能发生的以太坊“Merge”（合并）
The block chain community is watching, and what may happen in mid-September is the Etherm “Merge” (combined)
它是以太坊最具野心的升级，日期被一延再延。当地时间8月11日，以太坊项目开发人员表示，已完成最后一次合并的“带妆彩排”。随后，8月12日，以太坊联合创始人Vitalik Buterin预测，合并将在9月15日左右发生，尽管具体日期取决于哈希率。
On August 11, local time, the last of the merger was completed, according to its project developers. Then, on August 12, its co-founder, Vitalik Buterin, predicted that the merger would take place around September 15, although the exact date would depend on the al-Hashi rate.
成功合并后，以太坊的共识机制将从工作量证明（PoW）转向权益（质押）证明（PoS）， 前者将不再靠能源密集型采矿获得保障，而是由个体愿意拿出的资金决定。
A successful merger would result in a shift from a PoW to a PoS, which would no longer be guaranteed by energy-intensive mining but would be determined by funds that individuals would be willing to contribute.
合并将对以太坊带来数个关键影响，其中包括：去中心化、降低耗能且更有效率、整体流程将更无缝对接。
The merger will have several key implications for the Etherm, including decentralisation, reduced energy consumption and more efficient, and a more seamless interface of the overall process.
但对于合并后是否真的更好，此番升级后以太坊是否必定会一路向上，并没有一致的答案。与此同时，全球监管机构也在关注着该事件的进展，或以细化加密货币的监管生态。
But there is no consistent answer as to whether the upgrading will necessarily lead up the road. At the same time, global regulators are also following the progress of the event or fine-tuning the regulatory ecology of encrypted currencies.
“一次必要的尝试与自救”
“A necessary attempt and self-help”
共识机制是区块链技术中的核心概念，也为记账权争夺的游戏规则。目前，比特币网络与以太坊的共识机制均为PoW。随着进入游戏的参与者越多，得到记账权的概率便会降低，需要更多的计算量。PoW共识机制的一个明显缺陷由此显现：越大的计算量需要计算机消耗更多的电力。
The consensus mechanism is the core concept in block chain technology and the rules of the game that compete for rights to account. At present, both the Bitcoin network and the Etherm consensus mechanism are PoW. As more participants enter the game, the probability of getting rights to account decreases and requires more calculations.
因此，“浪费能源”成为比特币、以太币等加密货币一直以来受诟病主要原因之一，美国财政部长耶伦曾表示，比特币效率极低，耗电量惊人。剑桥大学研究人员在其比特币电力消耗指数中估测，比特币每年消耗约130太瓦时的电力，同时预计该数值数字还将上升。
As a result, “wasted energy” has been one of the main causes of the constant illness of encrypted currency such as Bitcoin, in which United States Treasury Secretary Ellen has stated that Bitcoin is extremely inefficient and consumes a staggering amount of electricity. Cambridge University researchers estimate that Bitcoin consumes about 130 watt-hours of electricity annually, while it is expected that the figure will rise.
以太坊的开发者在很早时谈到了解决方案，即改变区块链上交易的验证方式。
At a very early stage, the developers of Taiwan spoke of the solution, which was to change the way in which transactions were certified on the block chain.
2013 年，以太坊联合创始人Vitalik Buterin发布“下一代智能合约和去中心化应用平台”——以太坊的白皮书。最初于 2015 年推出工作量证明 (PoW) 共识算法，其愿景一直是让以太坊成为一个节能的权益证明 (PoS) 网络。
In 2013, Vitalik Buterin, a co-founder, released the White Paper on the Next Generation Smart Contract and Decentralized Applications. Initially launched the PoW Consensus algorithm in 2015, its vision has been to make Ether a PoS network of energy-saving rights.
经过多年谈判，合并暂定在今年9月中旬。它是对以太坊的升级，届时，主网将与负责权益证明系统的信标链合并。当其发生时，目前的PoW共识机制将被完全弃用，以太坊上的所有区块都将通过PoS产生。
After many years of negotiations, the merger is tentatively scheduled for mid-September. It is an upgrade to Ether, when the main network will be integrated with the chain of beacons responsible for the certificate of interests system. When it happens, the current PoW consensus mechanism will be completely abandoned, and all the blocks in Ether will be created through PoS.
据初步测算，若以太坊PoS置换成功，可以节省约99.95%的电力。
According to preliminary estimates, a successful replacement with the Taiku PoS could save approximately 99.95 per cent of electricity.
然而，与外汇市场不可能三角一般，从技术的角度，公链领域是区块链的基础架构，在区块链的世界中也一直存在“不可能三角”说法，即系统无法同时满足可扩展性、分布式、安全——三者只能得其二。
However, it is not possible to triangulate with foreign exchange markets. From a technical point of view, the public-chain area is the infrastructure of the block chain, and in the world of the block chain there has always been the term “impossible triangle” that the system cannot simultaneously satisfy scalability, distribution, security — only two of them.
“这是一次必要的尝试。”超块链Hyperchain创始人、中国计算机学会区块链专委委员、中科院软件所互联网实验室前总工史兴国对21世纪经济报道记者表示，以太坊在Layer2的层面进展很多，但在Layer1的层面已固步自封很久。以太坊的容量及性能和其生态规模已经远远不相匹配，导致很多以太坊侧链项目的出现，也致使很多项目纷纷出走到以太坊侧链，从而出现了严重的生态分裂。
“This is a necessary attempt.” The founder of the Hyperchain chain, the Commissioner-General of the Chinese Computer Society’s Block Chain, and the former Director-General of the Internet Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Software said to the 21st Century economic reporter that Ether was making a lot of progress at the Layer2 level, but at the Layer1 level it was long-standing. The capacity and performance of Ether is far from matched to the size of its ecology, leading to the emergence of many Ether-side chain projects, as well as the emergence of many projects to the Ether-Ether-side chain, leading to serious ecological divisions.
史兴国认为，此次分叉的风险最多使以太坊生态一分为二，但这远远好于让以太坊生态继续在不同侧链上分裂下去。因此，既可以把这次分叉看作一次重大升级，也可以看作是以太坊的一次自救。
The country believes that the risk of this breakup is at best dichotomy of the Etherms, but it is much better than allowing the Etherms to continue to divide on different sides of the chain. So this breakup can be seen as either a major upgrade or as a self-help exercise.
中国通信工业协会区块链专委会共同主席于佳宁对21世纪经济报道记者表示，以太坊最初使用工作量证明算法，需要成千上万的挖矿硬件设备持续运行，以支撑和保护网络。相对于工作量证明来说，权益证明在一定程度减少了数学运算带来的资源消耗，性能也得到了相应的提升，但依然是基于哈希运算竞争获取记账权的方式。
The co-chair of the China Communications Industry Association’s sector chain committee in Jia Ning said to the 21st century economic reporter that the initial use of workload proof algorithms in Taiku would require thousands of mining hardware equipment to continue operating to support and protect the network. In contrast to the workload certificate, proof of interest has reduced resource consumption from mathematical calculations to a certain extent, and performance has been improved accordingly, but it remains a method of obtaining rights to account on the basis of the Hashi competitor.
于佳宁称，转换到权益证明时，会发生一个实质性的转换，即以太坊网络将从工作量证明的约束中解脱出来，网络将对新用户来说更加易用，更能抵制“挖矿”的中心化从而提高去中心化程度、减少维持以太坊网络运营的电力支出以节约能源等。而从Vitalik Buterin 最近的发言来看，以太坊全面过渡为PoS 也是处于这些权衡。
Yu Jianing said that a substantial shift would occur when switching to proof of interest, i.e., a network that would be more accessible to new users, more resistant to the centralization of “mining” and greater de-centralization, and less energy saving by maintaining electricity for the operation of the network. From Vitalik Buterin’s recent statements, it is also in these trade-offs that the complete transition to PoS will take place.
作为前“矿工”，“既不坚决反对，但也不支持”是廖翔对以太坊本次Merge的态度。经历过2017年比特币硬分叉。他表示，宏观环境变动，信息化技术手段在提升，个体拥有对数据更大的创建与掌控的能力也在上升，但现行的底层架构没有跟上，无法满足，故以太坊决定升级。
As a former “miner”, “doesn't strongly oppose, but do not support” Liao Shang’s attitude towards Ether this Merge. After the 2017 Bitcoin hard fork, he said that macro-environmental changes, the upgrading of information technology tools, and the ability of individuals to create and control more data are increasing, but the existing bottom structure is not up to date and cannot be met, and the community decided to upgrade it.
廖翔称，需要充分考虑各社区、各参与方的诉求与利益。“权衡在于三项指标维度：安全性、去中心化、性能（TPS）。”其说，若以太坊决定完全走向以性能为指标的道路，便会牺牲掉“安全性”与“去中心化”两个方面。
Mr. Liao said that the demands and interests of communities and participants needed to be taken fully into account. “The trade-off is between three metric dimensions: safety, decentralisation, and performance (TPS).
对于PoS提升性能（TPS，每秒系统处理的数量）这一结果，廖翔认为，以传统的“性能”作为属创新之物区块链的关键衡量指标，其实毫无道理。“区块链本身便为一个低效的体系，远无法与支付宝等交易量并列。”“Merge其实有点像品牌宣传。”其说，前者也可被视为硬分叉，只不过它在社区名声不好，于是改名Merge。
For the result of the PoS uplifting (TPS, number processed by the system per second), Liao Shang argued that there was no justification for using traditional “performance” as a key measure of the chain of innovative blocks. “The block chain itself is an inefficient system, far from being able to match transactions such as payment treasures.” “Merge actually resembles brand propaganda.” The former could also be seen as hard fork, but it is not well known in the community, so it changed its name to Merge.
欧科云链OKLink显示，目前PoW算法的以太坊区块链大约每15秒会打包一个区块，每个区块里会包含150-300笔交易，换算下来的一秒钟仅能处理10-20笔交易，交易效率较低。
The Ocowin chain OKLink shows that the current PoW algorithm's Ether block chain packs about one block every 15 seconds, each containing 150 to 300 transactions, with a conversion of only 10 to 20 transactions and less efficient transactions.
技术、资产与道德风险
Technology, assets and moral hazard
数以千计的项目和数以百万计的投资者都依赖于本次合并的顺利进行。
Thousands of projects and millions of investors depend on the smooth running of this merger.
根据DeFi Llama的数据，以太坊持有锁定在去中心化金融中690亿美元总价值的58%。
According to data from DeFi Llama, the Tails hold 58 per cent of the total value of $69 billion in decentralized finance.
“目前的风险是利益分歧以及过渡的技术障碍。”于佳宁说，原先受益的“矿工”是最为受到共识机制变化的群体。技术障碍方面，本次合并是以太坊主网与采用权益证明的Beacon Chain网络的合并，期间会涉及到一系列技术上的问题，甚至说一旦出现漏洞，便极有可能造成网络运行的混乱。
“The current risk is the divergence of interests and the technical barriers to transition.” In Janin, the “miners” who benefited were the groups most affected by the changes in the consensus mechanisms. On the technical barriers, this merger is a merger of the Taibo network with the Beacon Chain network, which uses the proof of rights.
“因而，在合并之前，以太坊的开发者们必须慎之又慎，考虑到各种微小的可能性，才能使得合并的成功实施。”于佳宁举例称，如以太坊基金会研究员 Alex Stokes 就在7月28日对可能的MEV-boost故障表达疑虑，称该漏洞可能会影响中继者（区块构建者和验证者之间的中介）相互通讯的方式，如果出现故障将破坏整个PoS区块链。中继者只要出现小差错，就将导致无法在正确的时间出块，接着一系列运行MEV-boost的验证节点区块就会被遗漏。
“Therefore, the developers of Taiwan must be careful before merging, taking into account the small possibilities, in order to make the merger successful.” For example, on July 28, Alex Stokes, a fellow of Taiwan Foundation, expressed doubts about a possible MEV-Boost malfunction, arguing that it could affect the way that the relays (intermediate between block builders and certifying agents) communicate with each other, and that a failure would destroy the entire PoS block chain. Any small error by the relay would result in a failure to come out at the right time, followed by a series of validation nodes running MEV-Boost that would be missed.
但于佳宁指出，目前来看，若合并成功，是可以达到早期预设的状态。
However, according to Janin, if the merger were to succeed, it would be possible to achieve an early state of affairs.
对于此次以太坊合并的风险，史兴国总结为技术层面、资产层面和社区层面。
For the risks associated with the merger of the Tails this time, the country has been summarized in terms of technical, asset and community dimensions.
“技术层面的风险相对轻微，但会直接影响到资产和社区层面。”史兴国说，前者存于两个方面，首先是硬分叉带来的兼容和适配方面的问题，其可以随时间慢慢解决，但过程会引发的错误和混乱。以太坊已经是一个庞大的系统，上面部署着大量第三方的智能合约，当第三方或用户没有给予足够的关注时，错误就可能会发生。
“Technology risks are relatively minor, but they have a direct impact on the asset and community levels.” The State of Surgeon says that the former are in two ways, first and foremost the compatibility and compatibility problems posed by hard fork, which can be addressed slowly over time, but the process leads to mistakes and confusion. The Etherworld is already a vast system with a large number of third-party smart contracts, and mistakes can occur when third parties or users do not pay enough attention.
其次，合并后发生的问题很难再通过回滚来解决。2016年7月20日，以太坊为了挽回The DAO项目的失败而回滚了部分交易，但造成了以太坊历史上最严重的分裂。与上次不同，本次合并涉及到技术架构上的变化，没有明显的事故标的时，回滚将变得不可行。
On July 20, 2016, Ether was able to reverse part of the deal in an attempt to salvage the failure of the DAO project, but it caused the worst division in Ether's history. Unlike last time, the merger involved changes in the technological architecture, and it would not be feasible to roll back without a clear object of accident.
史兴国补充，资产层面的风险主要来自于合并引发的技术失误或社区分裂带来的币价波动。以太坊上不仅有ETC，还有大量的第三方发行的资产。合并的意图是长期向好，但短期带来的冲击无法回避。
The emerging state adds that the risk at the asset level arises mainly from currency price fluctuations caused by technological failures or community divisions caused by mergers. The Ether chamber has not only ETCs, but also a large number of assets issued by third parties. The intent of mergers is long-term good, but short-term shocks cannot be avoided.
社区风险来自于理念的不同和既得利益的变化。“有一部分人不认同POS共识，可能是出于理念，毕竟Vitalik Buterin早期也质疑过POS。”他说，也可能出于自身的挖矿收益的原因反对POS。另外，POS共识改变了以太坊矿工在社区中的地位和话语权，新的秩序要经过一段时间才会稳定下来。
Community risk arises from differences in ideas and changes in vested interests. “Some people disagree with the POS consensus, probably out of ideas, after all, Vitalik Buterin questioned the POS earlier.” He said, he may also oppose the POS for his own mining gains. Moreover, the POS consensus changes the position and voice of the Ether miners in the community, and the new order will take some time to stabilize.
廖翔说，PoW是一个非常去中心化的平衡安全机制，而在业内看来，Pos则属于“中心化”模式。短期内，或许以太坊生态前后没有太明显差异，但实际上，影响长远。“与开放的体系相比，封闭的体系将慢慢衰落。”
Liao Shang said that PoW is a very decentralised and balanced security mechanism, and that, in the industry, Pos is a “centralized” model. In the short term, perhaps, there is no significant difference between the ecology and the environment, but in fact, it has a long-term impact. “The closed system will slow down as compared to the open system.”
他认为，很多金融机构认为，成为有息资产后将更有价值，也更易被传统金融世界所接受。此外，PoS最初本来就被写进白皮书，按照路线图迭代这一说法，大多数人也都能接受。
In his view, many financial institutions believe that becoming interest-bearing assets will be more valuable and more acceptable to the traditional financial world. Moreover, PoS was originally written in the White Paper, and most people would accept it, according to the road map.
监管态度会如何变化
How does the regulatory attitude change?
然而，即便升级的结果之一是耗电量减少，但加密资产的其他负面影响并不会消失，也并不会减缓监管机构对该领域审查的力度。
However, even if one of the consequences of the upgrade is a reduction in electricity consumption, other negative impacts of encrypted assets will not disappear and will not slow regulators'scrutiny of this area.
2021年11月，瑞典金融监管局和环境保护局成为欧洲第一个呼吁在欧盟禁止使用工作量证明（PoW）方法进行加密挖矿的机构。
In November 2021, the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority and the Environmental Protection Agency became the first European institution to call for the prohibition of the use of the PoW method for encrypted mining in the EU.
2022年8月10日，联合国贸易和发展会议重申了对加密资产的警告。其指出，虽然加密货币可以为汇款提供便利，但其也可能通过非法流动实现逃税和避税。此外，加密货币还可能抑制资本管制的有效性，而资本管制是发展中国家保持政策空间和宏观经济稳定的关键工具。
On 10 August 2022, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development reiterated its warning of encrypted assets. It noted that, while encrypted currencies could facilitate remittances, they could also lead to tax evasion and avoidance through illicit flows. Moreover, encrypted currencies could inhibit the effectiveness of capital controls, which were a key tool for developing countries to maintain policy space and macroeconomic stability.
在于佳宁看来，以太坊合并仅仅是以太坊网络的以此重大升级，对于监管机构而言，以太坊采取什么共识机制并不是他们考虑的重点。
It is in Janin's view that the Taiwan merger is merely a major upgrade of the Taiyan network, and for regulators what consensus mechanism is being adopted is not the focus of their consideration.
其称，基于目前现状，美国证交会（SEC）曾表示，由于足够的去中心化，因此比特币和以太坊并不属于证券。而这之外的数字资产，都会通过豪威测试判定是否构成证券发行进行监管。这在各国监管模式中尤具代表性，也成为了部分国家对辖区内数字资产定义的一个标准。
According to it, based on the current state of affairs, the SEC has stated that, because of sufficient decentralisation, Bitcoin and Etheria do not belong to securities. Digital assets outside of this are subject to howlway tests to determine whether they constitute securities issuance.
目前，SEC将加密资产分为两类：实用型Token和证券型Token。比特币和以太坊存在于分散的网络结构中，就不存在豪威测试中“来自于第三方努力”的证券认定条件，因此属于实用型Token。
Currently, SEC classifies encrypted assets into two categories: the functional Token and the securities Token. Bitcoin and the Ether are present in a fragmented network structure, so there are no “from third party efforts” securities recognition conditions in the Howie test, and therefore the practical Token.
于佳宁表示，除了SEC已表态属于实用型Token的比特币和以太坊，其他资产都可能会被归属于证券型Token。在美国，证券型Token受该国《证券法》监管，该法规指出，发行者寻求从首次公开发行中获益，除非适用豁免登记，否则必须对发行进行登记。
In the United States, the securities Token is regulated by the country’s Securities Act, which states that the issuer seeks to benefit from the first public release and must register the issue unless an exemption is applied.
“一套不受监管约束的机制突然进入监管机制，整个生态会被扰乱。”廖翔说，悲观设想下，若被纳入证券范畴，该领域所有从业者或均需要持有债券许可，拿不到许可证的，或将崩溃。“这像是在一辆高速行驶的汽车内更换发动机。”
“A non-regulated mechanism suddenly enters the regulatory regime, and the whole ecology is disturbed.” Liao Shang said that pessimisticly, if it were to be included in the securities category, all practitioners in this area would either be required to hold a bond permit, not obtain a licence, or would collapse. “This is like replacing an engine in a high-speed car.”
史兴国则认为，海外监管机构对加密货币的态度具有较好的持续性和可预期性，除了严格限制的地区外，多数的监管是基于既有的金融分类和监管政策，且已取得一定的成效。因此监管态度不太可能发生剧烈变化。
For his country, the attitude of overseas regulators towards encrypted money is more sustainable and predictable, with most regulations based on established financial classification and regulatory policies, except in areas where there are severe restrictions, and has yielded some results. Regulatory attitudes are therefore unlikely to change dramatically.
无论最终导向如何，受“Merge”消息提振，以太币自6月下跌以来已上涨逾60%，8月10日，以太币上涨5.4%至1941美元/枚，创下两个月来的最高水平，但与去年11月超4800美元/枚的高点相比，相距仍远。而Vitalik Buterin也正出席各大论坛与会议，释放乐观言论。
Regardless of the final orientation, the “Merge” boosted by the news that the Ether has risen by more than 60% since the fall in June, and on August 10, the Ether rose by 5.4% to $1941, the highest level in two months, but still far from the high point of $4,800/me in November last year. Vitalik Buterin is also attending major forums and meetings to unleash optimism.
史兴国称，Vitalik Buterin对这次合并给了很多乐观的暗示，这是作为社区带头人的必要举动。“本质上，这次合并的社区共识远比技术切换更加重要。”
“In essence, the community consensus of this merger is much more important than the technology switch.”
“Vitalik的一些观点有些偏颇。”廖翔说，中国社区给了Vitalik最大的包容度。
“Some of Vitalik's views are somewhat biased.” Liao Shang said that the Chinese community gave Vitalik the greatest degree of tolerance.
（编辑：辛继召）
(ed. Xin, follow-up)
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