十年前，2010年，一枚比特币,价值0.0025美元，换算成人民币，不到一毛钱；十年后，2020年，比特币价格，突破20万人民币。
什么概念？
What concept?
十年前，你投资100块钱，今天就是13亿。
Ten years ago, you invested 100 bucks, and today it's 1.3 billion.
投资回报率是1300多万倍。
The return on investment was more than 13 million times.
十年前，如果你买了比特币，今天，你真的能赚到钱吗？
Ten years ago, if you buy bitcoin, today, do you really make money?
专注建立思维模型，帮你打开新世界的大门，大家好，我是大块头强尼，在《未来思维》那篇文章里啊，我提了一个问题，如果让你回到十年前，你会做些什么？
许多粉丝留言，有说买房子的，有说买股票，但是我发现，大家最希望买的，既不是房子，也不是股票，是什么？是买比特币。
A lot of fans have left messages about buying houses, about buying shares, but I find that what people want most is neither a house nor a stock, what is it? It's for bitcoin.
的确，2020年比特币的涨势的确是有些凶猛。
Indeed, the surge in bitcoin in 2020 was quite ferocious.
那么，今天我就带着大家做一个思想实验，来看看，如果十年前你真的投入了100块钱买比特币，今天，你到底能赚多少钱。
So, today, I'm going to take you all to a thought experiment to see how much money you can make today if you actually put 100 dollars into a bitcoin 10 years ago.
好，我们的旅程现在开始。
Okay, we're on our way now.
在整个投资领域，比特币无疑是近十年来，最疯狂的一个项目，没有之一。
In the entire area of investment, Bitcoin is undoubtedly one of the craziest projects of the last decade.
2009年，比特币的第一个“创始区块”出现，比特币宣告诞生。
In 2009, the first “found block” of Bitcoin appeared and Bitcoin was born.
2010年，佛罗里达州的一名程序员用10000个比特币购买了两块披萨，按照当时披萨的价格，比特币第一次被定价为0.0025美元。之后的几个月内，比特币价格猛增至0.08美元。
In 2010, a Florida programmer purchased two pieces of pizza with 10,000 bitcoins, the price of which, for the first time, was set at US$ 0.0025. In the next few months, the price of bitcoins rose sharply to US$ 0.08.
2011年2月，比特币价格首次突破1美元。此后2个月中，比特币与英镑、巴西币、波兰币的互兑交易平台先后开张。随着暗网丝绸之路的推动，比特币总市值最高达到2.06亿美元，但这一年发生很多恶性事件，市值一度回落。
In February 2011, the price of Bitcoin was the first to break $1. In the next two months, Bitcoin and Pound, Brazilian and Polish exchange trading platforms were opened. With the advance of the Dark Net Silk Road, Bitcoin had a total market value of up to $206 million, but the year had been marked by a number of malignant events and a fall in market value.
2012年9月，伦敦比特币会议召开，此时比特币价格为11.8美元，同月27日，比特币基金创立，此时比特币价格为12.46美元。
The London Bitcoin Conference was held in September 2012, at a price of $11.8, and the Bitcoin Fund was created on 27 September, at a price of $12.46.
2013年，陷入困境的银行威胁要冻结存款，引发全球对数字货币的兴趣。比特币飙升40%至80美元。11月，比特币创下1242美元的历史新高，而同时黄金价格为一盎司1241.98美元，比特币价格首次超过黄金。12月，中国央行联合五部委下发通知监管比特币，比特币快速下跌至1000美元附近，随后一段时间比特币继续大跌，一度跌至500美元以下。
In 2013, troubled banks threatened to freeze deposits, sparking global interest in digital money. Bitcoin surged by 40 to 80 dollars. In November, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $1242, while gold prices were 1241.98 ounces, the price of which exceeded gold for the first time.
2014年2月，日本比特币交易所被黑客攻击，4.6亿美元被盗，比特币下跌20%至400美元。
In February 2014, the Japanese Bitcoin exchange was hacked, $460 million stolen and Bitcoin fell by 20 to 400 dollars.
2015年1月中旬，比特币价格跌至152美元的低点。经过长时间持续的大幅调整之后，价格开始台阶式攀升。10月底，比特币价格回升至500美元。
By mid-January 2015, Bitcoin prices fell to a low of $152. After a long and sustained period of substantial adjustment, prices began to climb up the steps. At the end of October, Bitcoins prices recovered to $500.
2016年7月，比特币迎来历史上的第二次奖励减半，每个区块的奖励由之前的25个比特币减少至12.5。8月，著名交易网站bitfinex突然宣布关闭暂时网站，并停止一切交易和汇款，原因是交易所爆出漏洞，导致大概12万比特币被黑客盗走价值约6700万美元，盗出比特币当天晚上在香港一家交易所抛出，导致当日比特币暴跌25%。12w比特币损失均由所有交易者平摊，即每人的帐号将损失大概36%资产。
In July 2016, Bitcoin halved its second historical reward, reducing the incentive per block from the previous 25 bitcoins to 12.5. In August, the well-known trading website bitfinex suddenly announced the closure of the temporary website and the cessation of all transactions and remittances, as a result of a leak in the exchange, which led to the theft of approximately 120,000 bitcoins by hackers valued at approximately $67 million, and the theft of bitcoins at a Hong Kong exchange that night, resulting in a 25 per cent drop in bitcoins that day.
2017年3月，比特币价格突破1238.11，此时每盎司黄金价格为1237.73美元。从年初开始比特币已经持续上涨超过25%，而黄金的增长速度只有7%。11月，比特币价格快速上涨，美元兑比特币价格首次突破9000美元。28日，比特币交易价格首次突破10000美元。12月，突破19000 美元，三天后，创下新高20000美元。
In March 2017, the price of Bitcoin passed 1238.11, when the price of gold per ounce was $1237.73. The price of Bitcoin rose continuously by more than 25 per cent from the beginning of the year, while the rate of gold grew by only 7 per cent. In November, the price of Bitcoin rose rapidly, and the price of the United States dollar to bitcoin exceeded $9,000 for the first time.
2018年，大量个人投资者入圈，Facebook开始克制涉及比特币的信息的广告，防止加密货币相干推广诱骗投资者。比特币价格暴跌，机构开始暴雷，年底比特币价格触底，跌至3211美元。
In 2018, a large number of individual investors entered the circle, and Facebook began to restrain the advertising of bitcoin-related information, preventing encrypted currency-related promotion from enticing investors. Bitcoin prices fell sharply, institutions began to thunder, and by the end of the year Bitcoin prices fell to $3211.
2019年初，比特币价格突然暴涨，一度达到5000美元。6月，价格再度突破1万美元。
At the beginning of 2019, Bitcoin prices jumped sharply, once to $5,000. In June, prices broke again by $10,000.
2020年，奇幻的开始，1月价格还在7200美元，到了12月已经上涨到29000美元以上。
In 2020, the phantom began with a price of $7,200 in January, which had risen to over $29,000 in December.
怎么样？是不是有点惊心动魄的意思。
我们看到，从2016年到今天，比特币累计下跌20%的情况，总共出现了十次，下跌30%的情况，出现了7次，而价格腰斩的情况，也有四次。
We have seen a cumulative 20 per cent drop in bitcoin from 2016 to today, a total of 10, a 30 per cent decline, seven, and a four-time cut in prices.
这代表着什么？
What does that mean?
代表着，如果你用自己的钱买比特币，你至少有四次会亏的自己抽自己嘴巴子。
It means that if you buy bitcoin with your own money, you smoke your own mouth at least four times.
但可惜的是，许多投资者都是借钱做局，甚至是从黑市套出高利贷，加10倍
But unfortunately, many investors borrow money and even raise usury from the black market by ten times.
、20倍的杠杆来玩比特币。那么，别说是腰斩，只要有一次20%的下跌，你就会被强行平仓，然后负债累累，往后余生就是没完没了的还贷款，后面的一片大好的涨势，就跟你一毛钱关系也没了。
20 times the leverage to play bitcoin. So, don't say a bee-head, once a 20 per cent drop, you'll be forced down, you'll be heavily indebted, you'll spend the rest of your life on loan repayments, and you'll have nothing to do with the big upturn behind you.
你可能会说，咱们不是在说假设十年前花一百块钱买比特币这件事儿吗？这中间什么涨涨跌跌跟我没关系，我就等到十年后，等到现在，再出手，我不就赚钱了吗？
好，你这么说，那我就要告诉你一个真相了。
Well, if you say so, then I'll tell you the truth.
如果你今天，并没有赚到你认为自己应该赚到的钱，那么，就算你十年前，真的给你一个机会，让你拥有了一百块钱的比特币，到现在，你也不可能赚到钱。
If today you don't earn what you think you should earn, then even if you did give you a chance 10 years ago to have a hundred dollars in bitcoins, you're not gonna make it now.
为什么？
Why?
还记得我在《未来思维》里说的那个例子吗？
Remember that example I said in Future Thinking?
40年前，1980年的纽约市犯罪率很高，如果让你回到40年前，并且把这一年纽约市的所有犯罪记录统统给你，请问，你能降低纽约的犯罪率吗？
40 years ago, the crime rate in New York City was high in 1980, and if you go back 40 years and give you all the criminal records of New York City this year, would you please ask if you could reduce the crime rate in New York?
你肯定觉得可以啊，按照犯罪记录，把这些犯人统统抓了，犯罪率不就降低了吗？
I'm sure you think it's okay to take these prisoners all down, according to the criminal record, and the crime rate will be reduced.
可事实是，就算你抓了所有罪犯，纽约市的犯罪率依然不会改变。
But the truth is that even if you catch all the criminals, the crime rate in New York City will not change.
为什么？
Why?
因为，犯罪率不是某一些人造成的，而是整个系统造成的。
这跟当时的社会制度，人群分布，甚至是世界局势都有关系，你抓了一个犯人，同样的案子，会有另外一个人再犯一遍。
This has to do with the social system of the time, the distribution of the population, and even the situation in the world.
人力是敌不过系统的。
再举一个例子，大家都玩过抛硬币的游戏吧，这个游戏的系统规律，就是每一面可能出现的机率，都是50%。
所以，即便是你玩了20次，20次全都中了正面，只要是你还在一直玩这个游戏，你放心，系统规律就会把概率拉平，到最后，还是要回归到一半一半这个数字上来的。
So, even if you've played 20 times, and you've won 20 times, so long as you've been playing this game, you can rest assured that the system will level the odds and, in the end, you'll have to go back to half the number.
1939年，南非数据学克里奇就做了这个一个实验，他把一枚硬币抛了1万次，记录了正面朝上的数量。
This experiment was carried out in 1939 by Krich, a data scientist from South Africa, who dropped a coin 10,000 times and recorded the number of positive upwards.
结果统计图显示，在时间的维度上，时间越长，系统回归50%的程度就越大。
The statistical chart of the results of
这两个例子说明什么？
说明，你的人生系统，决定了你的命运，尤其是在越长的时间维度里，这个影响越明显。
你以为，你回到十年前，改变了一两个决策，改正了一两个错误，买了100块钱的比特币，你的人生，就能真的有所改变吗？
You think you can really change your life by changing one or two decisions, correcting one or two mistakes, buying $100 in bitcoins?
你错了，你改变的事，会被你的系统用更多的事稀释掉，让它们全都回归平均。
You're wrong, what you change will be diluted by more things on your system to bring them all back to the average.
你真的以为：
Do you really think:
2013年，当你看到比特币的价格第一次猛增到10000美金的时候，你会不想出手吗？如果你没出手。2015年，当你看到比特币的价格跌破152美元的时候，你会觉得懊悔吗？
In 2013, when you saw the price of Bitcoin soar to $10,000 for the first time, would you not want to do it? If you didn't. In 2015, when you saw the price of Bitcoin fall into 152 dollars, would you regret it?
最重要的是，你的小心脏真的能够经受得住十年来无数次的震荡吗？
The most important thing is, is your little heart really able to withstand the countless shocks of 10 years?
你怎么能保证，自己不是在最高点买入，最低点卖出呢？
How can you make sure you don't buy it at the top and sell it at the bottom?
你放心，你凭运气赚到钱，肯定会凭实力亏掉。
中国人都知道一句话，孔子他老人家说的，叫：德不配位,必有灾殃；
The Chinese know well the saying of Confucius, his old man, that there is no place for him, and that there shall be a disaster.
你看看，在孔子的眼里，系统不但会回归平均，甚至还会在你做了不该做的选择的时候，拉低你的平均值。
You see, in Confucius' eyes, the system not only returns to average, but even lowers your average when you make the wrong choice.
不过啊，你也不用灰心，同样的道理，我们反过来看。
But you don't have to be discouraged, too, we'll see the other way.
你人生中也许曾做出过重大的错误决策，但是这些错误决策并没有让你堕入万劫不复，这也是因为系统回归平均的功劳。
You may have made major mistakes in your life, but they have not left you in the wrong hands, thanks to the system's return to evenness.
其实我想说的，就是一句话：你的人生算法是什么样的，你的人生就是什么样的？即便改变你人中的一两个重要事件，你的整个人生经历，也不会有太多的改变。
What I'm trying to say is: what is your life algorithm, what is your life? Even if you change one or two important events in your life, your entire life experience will not change much.
么好，你觉得，我是在倡导“人生由命，富贵在天”吗？
错了，我恰恰要告诉你的是如何改变人生系统这件事儿。
Wrong, that's exactly what I'm trying to tell you about how to change the system.
如果真的有这么一台时光机，让你回到过去，其实你最应该改变的，是你的思维模式。因为只有你的思维模式改变了，你的人生系统，才会为之改变。
If there really is a time machine that brings you back to the past, what you really need to change is your way of thinking. Because only if your way of thinking changes, your system changes.
在我的认知世界里，我命由我，不由天。因为我的认知，一直都在我自己的掌控之中。
In my world of perception, I am my destiny, not my destiny. For my knowledge has always been in my control.
让我们继续做思想实验吧，如果让你回到飞机被发明之前，你认为，飞机是靠什么飞上天的？
Let's continue with the thought experiment. If you go back to the plane before it was invented, what do you think the plane goes up to?
根据我们对自然世界的观察，能飞的动物，都有翅膀，对吧。而且翅膀越大，飞的越高，对吧。这个翅膀还要能煽动起来，鼓动的风越大，飞的越高，对吧。
According to our observations of the natural world, all the flying animals have wings, right? And the bigger the wings, the higher the flying, right? And the more the wings, the more the wind, the higher the encouraging, the higher the flying, right?
你的想法，跟当时人们的想法一样。
所以，当时的人在这个方向上努力了很久，但是都失败了。
So, people at that time worked long in that direction, but they all failed.
为什么？
Why?
因为系统错了。
Because the system is wrong.
后来，莱特兄弟发明了飞机，因为他们发现，机械飞行系统和生物飞行系统，压根就是两套系统。
Later, the Wright brothers invented the aircraft because they discovered that the mechanical and bioflight systems were two systems at the root.
我们不能向天上的鸟学习，要向水里的船学习。要让飞机飞起来，靠的不是翅膀的煽动，而是像帆船一样，用风力把飞机顶到天上。
We can't learn from the birds in the sky, from the ships in the water. It's not the wings that inspire it, but the wind that lifts it up to the sky.
爱因斯坦说过，问题不可能由导致这种问题的思维方式来解决。
Einstein said that the problem could not be solved by the way of thinking that led to it.
我们的思维都有惯性，认为自己曾经正确的认知，未来一定正确。你现在对世界的认知，也一定是未来世界的真相。
这就是为什么，60后听不懂80后说的话，80后听不懂00后说的话的原因了。
That's why after 60 you don't understand what you say after 80 and after 80 you don't understand what you say after 00.
代际之间的矛盾，根本原因，是系统不更新造成了绝大隔阂。
The root cause of the intergenerational conflict between
那么，我们的系统为什么不更新呢？
Then why don't we update our system?
核心原因，是你陷入了围城式学习的陷阱。
The central reason is that you're trapped in a peri-urban learning trap.
随着年龄的增加，到了三十多岁，你就会形成一个自己的认知框架，然后通过不断的学习、工作，去丰富这个框架，这会让你的知识丰富，会让你的处理问题的能力增加。
As age grows, and in your 30s, you will develop a cognitive framework of your own, and then enrich it through continuous learning and work, which will enrich your knowledge and increase your ability to deal with problems.
这就是老师傅的力量，工厂里的老师傅受人尊敬，医院里的老中医备受推崇，学校里的老教授德高望重。
This is the power of the teacher, the teacher in the factory is respected, the old Chinese doctor in the hospital is highly respected and the old professor in the school is highly respected.
这些，都得益于你认知框架的稳固。
This is all because of the solidity of your cognitive framework.
但是，你会发现，当你手里有一把极其好用的锤头的时候，你看什么，都是钉子。
But you'll find, when you have a very good hammer in your hand, what you look at is a nail.
这就是围城式学习，你把知识的围城修得太过牢固，导致你根本没办法接受外界的信息。
It's a siege study, and you've built it too hard, so you can't accept information from the outside.
因为在你看来，任何不在你框架下的东西，都是错误的。都需要用你手里的锤头，修理修理的。
Because, in your opinion, anything that is not within your framework is wrong. You need to fix it with your hammer.
这就是，为什么老年人更喜欢教育年轻人的道理。
That is why older persons prefer to educate young people.
有句话叫灯下黑。
There's a sentence called black under the light.
你把自己的搞得越心明眼亮，你所看到的世界，就越清晰。但同时，你世界里阴影的面积，就会越大。
The clearer you make yourself, the clearer the world you see, but at the same time, the bigger the shadow in your world.
要知道，任何一种认知模式都有局限性。
你必须要突破围城，进入双城，或者多城模式。
You have to break through the siege, into the double, or multi-city mode.
从对鸟的研究中逃出来，看到帆船，看到更广阔的天地。
From their research on birds, they have escaped to see sailboats and to see a wider universe.
这就是我为什么要做这个思维模型系列节目的原因。
That's why I'm doing this thinking model series.
我知道，你们又要说我在为自己打广告了。
I know. You're gonna say I'm advertising for myself again.
没错，我的确非常热爱自己做的这件事儿，从对这些思维模型的研究中，我发现了许许多多不同的天地。
Yes, I do love what I've done, and from the study of these models of thinking, I've discovered a lot of different worlds.
有不少粉丝看完其中的某一个思维模型，会给我留言，说这个思路不对，解决不了，什么什么问题。
There's a lot of fans who look at one of these models and leave me a message saying it's not the right idea, it's not the solution, it's not the problem.
我要说的是，一个思维当然解决不了所有的问题，如果你看完了我所有的思维模型，或许，就能找到问题的答案了。
All I'm saying is, of course, a mind does not solve all the problems, and if you look at all my models, maybe you can find the answers to the questions.
事实上，这也是我一直想要完成的一个夙愿。
In fact, it is also a wish that I have always wanted to accomplish.
建立多元思维模型，形成我自己的无数个卫星城。当我面对一个问题的时候，我能够从这么多的卫星城之中，迅速找出一个解决方案，并且能够突破认知的局限，看到更广阔的宇宙，更宏伟的天际。
Create a multi-thinking model that forms my own numerous satellite cities. When I face a problem, I can quickly find a solution from so many satellite cities, and I can break through the limits of perception and see a wider universe and a bigger sky.
总结
今天我用比特币的十年发展，带着大家做了一个思想实验。是想告诉你，如果你想改变自己的命运，只有改变认知系统才能够实现。而要完成认知系统的改变，你首先要做的，就是突破围城式学习的牢笼，走向多城模式。那么，怎么走向多城模式呢？看我的文章吧！
Today, with the 10-year development of Bitcoin, I have come up with a thought experiment. I want to tell you that if you want to change your own destiny, only a change in the cognitive system will be possible. And the first thing you want to do is to make a change in the cognitive system is to break through the city-style learning cage and move to the multicity model. So, how do you go to the multicity model? Read my articles.
编辑：大块头
Editor: Big guy
作者简介:大块头强尼，85后，全网30万粉丝，生物科学出身，认知心理学门徒，个人成长控。专注建立思维模型，帮你打开新世界的大门。
Author: Big Johnny, after 85, a network of 300,000 fans, bioscientists, cognitive psychologists, personal growth control. Focusing on building thinking models to help you open the door to a new world.
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