比特币为什么会有今天这么大价值？

比特币也是最近几天大家非常揪心的一件事情，我在网上看到有人说比特币涨到一万美元的时候，大家觉得欢呼雀跃，觉得这个世界的未来到来了，涨到两万落回一万的时候，大家觉得世界末日来了。

It was also a matter of great concern to all of you in recent days, when I saw on the Internet that bitcoin had risen to 10,000 dollars, and everyone felt cheerful, that the future of the world was coming, and that 20,000 had fallen back to 10,000, and that the end of the world was coming.

到底比特币是不是货币？它有没有货币属性？它是怎么发展到今天这样的？未来会成为什么样子？

Is Bitcoin a currency? Does it have currency attributes? How does it get to this day? What will the future look like?

在讲这些逻辑之前，我首先特别希望大家理解到底货币是什么，或者货币是怎么来的？

Before I begin with these logics, I would like to ask you in particular to understand what the currency is, or how it comes from?

你记不记得我们以前上学的时候学过什么？

Do you remember what we learned when we went to school?

货币是用于买卖之间的一般等价物。

The currency of

人类最开始选了很多奇葩的东西作为货币，比如贝壳、盐、石头、动物身上的皮毛等等，选过各种各样的东西作为一般等价物。

Humans were the first to choose a lot of strange things as money, such as shells, salt, stones, fur on animals, and a variety of things as general equivalents.

目的是什么？就是我拿到手之后愿意持有，别人也愿意拿东西去换，所以一般等价物一定要有可以流通的价值。后来不断地演进，最终绝大多数人选择了用黄金作为一般等价物。

What's the point? I'm willing to hold it when I have it, and others are willing to exchange it, so evolved and eventually the vast majority chose /strong.

黄金被选为一般等价物很重要的原因就是因为它稀缺，地球上储量有限，易分割，属性很稳定等等特性，你在课程里面都学过。

The important reason that gold has been selected as a general equivalent is because it is scarce, has limited reserves on the planet, is easy to divide, has stable properties and so on, and you have learned in the course.

今天很多人问我一个问题，所有货币不都是以国家信用为担保发行的吗？你觉得黄金是哪个国家发行的呢？

A lot of people today ask me a question: isn't all the money issued under the guarantee of State credit? Which country do you think the gold is issued?

黄金不是任何国家发行的，是自然界发行的，大家之所以选择它作为货币是因为历史文化的原因，人们没有选择铁，所以铁不是我们的货币。

Gold is not issued by any country, it is distributed by nature, and it is chosen as a currency because of historical and cultural reasons and because iron is not our currency.

所以，黄金不是任何国家发明的，黄金的储量不受任何国家的信用担保。

Thus, gold is not invented by any country and its reserves are not guaranteed by credit from any country.

后来因为黄金毕竟有使用上的缺陷，那么重怎么交易，出门被人抢了怎么办？于是中国人首先发明了“交子”，就是纸代表黄金，所以纸币早期是代表黄金，但还是以黄金为货币。

Then what if the gold were sold because it was defective after all, and the door was stolen? So the Chinese first invented the “spoof” – paper – gold – so that the banknotes represented gold at an early stage, but the gold was still the currency.

所以就出现了一个大家听说过的概念，叫金本位。很多国家发行纸币的时候，都是对照着我们国家黄金的总量来发行。所以我们早期的货币也不是国家想发多少发多少，而是以黄金为对照的。

So there's a concept that you've heard of, called `strong' gold standard , so our early currency is not about how much the country wants to send, but about gold.

后来到了一九二几年的时候，出现了一个很重大的事情，美国当时出现了金融危机，美国总统罗斯福做出了很重要的决定，决定放弃金本位。

Then, in 1920, there was a very important event, when the United States was in a financial crisis, and President Roosevelt of the United States made a very important decision to give up the gold standard.

什么意思？我们这个国家理论上想印多少货币就印多少，我国库里没有黄金我也印钞票，这就叫做放弃金本位。

What do you mean? We in this country print as much money as we want in theory, and I print money without gold in our vault, which is called giving up the gold standard.

当时掀起了轩然大波，很多国家政府批评他，也有很多支持他。不管怎么样，吵得不可开交。放弃金本位之后，国家想发多少发多少，那你发了货币能买东西吗？你相信我美国，只要拿我的货币就能让你买到东西。这就叫以国家信用为担保发行货币。

Many governments criticized him, and many supported him. Anyway, there was a lot of noise. After giving up the gold standard, how much the country wanted to send, did you send the money to buy something? You believed in the United States, you could buy something with my money.

什么时候开始有国家信用出现的？就是纸币脱离黄金的时候。这件事情运行得还可以，但是很多人还是持不同的观点，到底是金本位好，还是以国家信用为担保好，今天主流的国家都是以国家信用为担保发行货币的。

When does a state credit start? That's when a banknote comes out of gold. It works well, but many people have different views, whether it's the gold standard or whether it's the country's credit. The mainstream countries today issue their currency under state credit.

这样有什么好处呢？

What's the good of this?

就是我可以调控经济，经济不行的时候我稍微多发一点点，因为经济学里有一个乘数效应，带动经济的发展。

It's that I can regulate the economy, and when it doesn't work, I give it a little bit more, because there's a multiplier effect in economics that drives the economy.

国家一旦掌握这个东西之后，就迷上了这个东西，不行，我以后一定要这么发。

Once the State has this thing, it's obsessed with it. No, I'm gonna do it this way.

所以如果控制得好的话，这个国家的货币总量在可控范围内。

So, if it's well controlled, the country's monetary aggregate is within the bounds of control.

但是也有极端情况下，比如说战争时候，管不了那么多了，拼命印了再说，甚至有可能国家的信用破产。确实有小国家信用破产了，一下子货币变得毫无价值。

But there are extremes, for example, when war is over, when the country’s credit goes bankrupt, or even when the country’s credit fails. Indeed, there are small countries that fail, and the money becomes worthless at once.

这就使很多人反思，到底货币是应该以国家信用为担保发行，还是要对照黄金，金本位的思潮又回来了。

This has led many to reflect on whether the currency should be issued as a guarantee of State credit or whether it should be compared to gold, and the gold standard has returned.

讲了这么多，你理解了到底货币是怎么一步一步走到今天的，然后我们再来理解比特币的出现。

After all this talk, you understand how the currency has come to this day step by step, and then we understand the appearance of bitcoin.

比特币是一个基于区块链技术的“货币”，之所以把货币打上引号，是因为很多政府是不承认比特币的。

bitcoin is a “currency” based on block chain technology , and the reason for the citation of the currency is that many Governments do not recognize bitcoin.

为什么比特币会有今天的价值呢？

Why would Bitcoin be worth it today?

昨天我们讲了奖励机制，你们用算力去挖比特币，我看到留言区说这个算力是不是很浪费电？确实，因为算的时候，CPU高速运转，电是有巨大消耗的。

Yesterday we talked about incentive mechanisms, you guys dig bitcoin with arithmetic, and I saw the message area say that this is a waste of electricity? Indeed, because the CPU is running fast, and the electricity is a huge drain.

也许今天来看还没有找到一个更好的方法让大家公平地抢夺记账权利，所以目前为止还是以工作量证明，以耗电为主要的争夺记账权的方法。

Perhaps today we have not found a better way for everyone to seize the right to account fairly, so it has so far been demonstrated by the volume of work, with electricity consumption as the main method of competing for the right to account.

耗了电之后终于抢到了比特币，比特币有用吗？不就是在一个游戏机制里面，抢到它有什么价值呢？

After running out of electricity, you finally get Bitcoin. Does Bitcoin work? What's the value of getting it in a game mechanism?

所以早期的时候，在2008年，中本聪写了这篇论文，搭建了比特币生态后，叫创始区块，第一批比特币拿出来之后没有任何价值。

So early in 2008, Nakamoto wrote this paper, built the Bitcoin Ecology, called the Founding Block, and the first bitcoin was of no value.

你知道货币要有价值，就得有人愿意拿实物跟你换，那时候没有任何价值。

You know there's value in money, you have to have someone who's willing to trade you for something. There's no value at that time.

直到2010年，有一个程序员做了一件事，他拿一万枚比特币，我记得是2010年的5月22号，这一天又被币圈的人称为比萨饼日，因为他拿一万枚比特币换了两张比萨饼。

Until 2010, one of the programmers did something, he took 10,000 bitcoins, and I remember it was May 22, 2010, which was called Pizza Day by the men in the ring, because he traded 10,000 bitcoins for two pizzas.

这一万枚比特币今天值多少钱呢？

How much is this 10,000 bitcoins worth today?

前两天一枚比特币值十万块人民币的时候，当时值十亿人民币，现在跌到七亿人民币，一张比萨饼值3.5亿，所以终于可以和真实的物品交换了。

When a bitcoin was worth 100,000 yuan the previous two days, worth a billion yuan, it now fell to 700 million yuan and a pizza worth 350 million, so it was finally possible to exchange real items.

一开始还是跟玩一样，但是为什么后来有这么大的变化呢？

At first it was just like playing, but then why did it change so much?

当时中本聪设定了两个重要的规则，第一，整个比特币世界只有2100万枚，总数有限，这个逻辑对应到黄金的逻辑上，相当于整个全球的黄金储量是有限的，地球上就这么多了，所以它能作为货币。

At that time, Nakamoto set two important rules, first of all, that the entire Bitcoin world had only 21 million pieces, with a limited total. This logic corresponds to the logic of gold, which is equivalent to the limit of the global gold stock, which is so much on Earth that it can be a currency.

但是你反过来想一个极端的事情，如果今天有一个彗星是黄金做的，撞了地球之后黄金撒了整个地球，黄金还值钱吗？不值钱了，因为不稀缺了。所以比特币也定义了，2100万枚，永远不会多了。

But you think of an extreme thing, if today a comet is made of gold, and the gold spreads over the Earth after hitting it, is it worth it? It's not worth it, because it's not scarce. So Bitcoin is defined, 21 million, never more.

第二，黄金被挖这个事情，一开始挖黄金很容易，过去我们说美国西部一堆掘金者，一开始在河边的沙子里都能淘出金子来。后来炸山，难度增加了，要用机械，雇更多的人，还有矿炉。再往后炸山也找不到黄金了，找黄金的难度越来越大。

Second, it is easy to dig gold in the first place, when we used to say that a bunch of gold diggers in the western part of the United States were able to find gold in the sand by the river. Then it became more difficult to blow up mountains, using machinery, hiring more people, and mining.

比特币也是一样的，最开始的时候，一个区块放50个比特币，每十分钟会放出一个区块；过了四年的时间，比特币的算法自动把每区块中比特币的数量减半，减为25。每过一段时间，每个区块里的比特币会减半，就像黄金一样，越来越难挖。

The same is true of bitcoin, which in the beginning was 50 bitcoins per block, which is released every 10 minutes; after four years, bitcoin's algorithm automatically halved the number of bitcoins per block to 25. Every time, bitcoins per block are halved, like gold, and it's more difficult to dig.

所以你就明白比特币从逻辑上的设置跟黄金的设置是一模一样的。

So you understand that bitcoin is logically the same set as gold.

所以，你可以把比特币理解为它就是数字黄金。

So you can interpret Bitcoin as digital gold.

现金、黄金、数字黄金，它们都有个天然的特征，就是不记名。

我见过很多土豪，一出门打开包，都是大把的现金。我说你为什么用现金？他说不想让别人知道我买了什么。

I've seen a lot of twats, and when I go out and open my bags, it's a lot of cash. I said why do you use cash? He said he didn't want anyone to know what I bought.

所以现金有一个特征就是不记名，不记名会带来什么好处呢？最大的好处就是转账给谁不知道，所以这就导致后来比特币的一个非常大的应用，就是在毒品交易网络。

So one of the features of cash is that it's anonymous, and what's the benefit of it? The best thing about it is that it's transferred to someone who doesn't know, so this leads to a very big application of Bitcoin later, in the drug network.

不记名就导致在地下网络比特币开始被疯狂使用了，慢慢地它就有了交易价值。

Unnamed leads to the deranged use of Bitcoin in the underground network and, slowly, to the value of the transaction.

在中国2013年的时候你买比特币，中国用人民币买了比特币之后，你就像发邮件一样把比特币发到美国的某个人的个人钱包里了，这个人在当地的交易所兑换成美元。

After you bought bitcoin in China in 2013, and China bought bitcoin in Chinese renminbi, you sent bitcoin to someone in the United States' personal wallet, who converted it into United States dollars on a local exchange, just as you sent an e-mail.

你想过没有，这意味着什么？意味着你的人民币在没有外汇监管局，没有用到五万美金额度的情况下就汇出去了。

Have you thought about it? What does that mean?

所以因为它的跨境能力、因为它的匿名，在地下网络它开始被大规模使用，越来越多人开始持有和交易比特币。

So because of its cross-border capabilities, because of its anonymity, it is beginning to be used on a large scale in the underground network, and more and more people are beginning to hold and trade Bitcoin.

为什么它能火起来？很大的原因就是交易。

Why does it get hot? The big reason is the deal.

但这也引起了很多国家的不满和警惕，觉得这还得了，货币在我们国家之间绕来绕去，一开始还不大，越来越大之后，这些国家就开始头疼。

But this has also provoked resentment and vigilance on the part of many countries, which have begun to experience headaches after the currency has been bypassed by our countries, initially small and growing.

我举个例子，你们可能都用过一种特别有意思的虚拟币——QQ币。

By way of example, you may all have used a particularly interesting virtual currency -- .

你们有没有想过，这个比特币跟QQ币有什么区别？不都是数字世界里的，除了去中心化之外，还有什么区别？

Have you any idea what the difference is between this bitcoin and the Queen? Not all in the digital world. What difference does it make besides decentralisation?

你要认真想一想，QQ币有一个非常大的不同，你只能买，不能卖。

Think about it. There's a big difference in the Queen. You can only buy it, you can't sell it.

什么叫只能买不能卖？你拿人民币买成QQ币，拿Q币可以去换身上的装饰、可以去买宠物、可以去在腾讯体系里消费，但是有一天你想把Q币换成人民币，对不起，不可以，国家法律是不允许的。

What do you mean you can only buy and not sell? You buy the renminbi into Q$, you can change the decorations, you can buy pets, you can spend them in the tether system, but one day you want to exchange it for the renminbi, sorry, no. The law does not allow it.

你说我以前没有注意到，好像真的是这样，为什么不允许？如果允许把人民币换成Q币，Q币再合法换成人民币的话，Q币就是货币了，Q币和人民币之间就会出现“汇率”了。Q币到底值人民币多少钱，很多人以后就不持人民币而持Q币了。

You said that I hadn't noticed before, as if it were true, why not? If you allow the exchange of the renminbi into a currency, and the exchange of the renminbi into a currency, then the currency will be a currency, and there will be a “exchange rate” between the currency and the renminbi.

我们读大学的时候是用饭票的，相当于我拿人民币买饭票，之后饭票是可以换回人民币的，所以在大学里，饭票具有货币的属性，只不过在大学里，饭票的汇率跟人民币可能是一块钱兑一块钱的饭票，Q币不一样。

When we went to college, we used a meal ticket, which was the equivalent of buying a meal ticket with the renminbi, and then the meal ticket could be exchanged for the renminbi, so that in college, the meal ticket had a monetary character, except that in college, the exchange rate for the meal ticket was probably one dollar to one dollar, and the Q dollar was not the same.

但是比特币可以双向交易，你不承认它是货币，但它理论上都已经变成一个货币了。

But Bitcoin is a two-way deal, and you don't recognize it as a currency, but in theory it's become a currency.

国家不承认这个东西，它继续发展之后，就导致了一些很有意思的问题。

The State does not recognize this, and its continued development has given rise to a number of interesting questions.

这些问题是有些国家的富人特别聪明，最开始用到比特币的聪明人可能是犯罪分子，后来富人也干了一件事，既然你们把它当成虚拟币，不承认它的货币地位，不承认它的资产计价单位，那我死之前就把一辈子资产全部买成比特币。

These problems are that in some countries the rich are particularly smart, that the smart people who first used Bitcoin may have been criminals, and that the rich have done something, and since you treat it as a virtual currency, do not recognize its monetary status and do not recognize its asset unit, I bought all my assets into bitcoin before I died.

为什么？你们觉得它是比特币，不是资产，买了之后我送给我儿子。为什么？因为过去把法币给儿子要交遗产税的，很高昂的，有的国家需要40%、50%的遗产税。但是我把比特币给他就不用交遗产税了。

Why? You think it's a bitcoin, not an asset, and I give it to my son. Why? Because it used to be a very high inheritance tax for a son, and some countries needed 40 per cent and 50 per cent. But I gave him bitcoin without a inheritance tax.

于是有些国家就陆陆续续地开始承认比特币至少作为资产计价单位的社会地位。

then some countries continue to recognize Bitcoin's social status as at least an asset unit.