这里的贵或便宜是相对概念而不是绝对概念，它是把比特币的现价和过去200日的定投成本以及比特币的指数增长估值进行比较计算得出的。当现价远高于200日的定投成本及增长估值时，就是“贵”，反之就是“便宜”。

The price or discount here is a relative, not an absolute, concept that compares the current price of Bitcoins with the set cost of the past 200 days and the index growth valuation of Bitcoins. When the current price is much higher than the 200-day valuation of the fixed cost and growth, it is “high”, and vice versa.

举例来说：

For example:

在2019年7月9日，币价12000美元，ahr999指数高达4，那是因为当时的币价在短时间内飙涨导致其远高于过去200日的定投成本及增长估值，因此短期积累了较高风险，12000美元的价格明显超买，所以短期内比特币是不宜再买了。

On 9 July 2019, the value of the currency was US$ 12,000 and the ahr999 index was as high as 4, which was due to the fact that currency prices soared at the time in a short period of time, resulting in a much higher set cost and growth valuation than in the past 200 days, which resulted in a higher risk accumulated in the short term, and that the price of US$ 12,000 was clearly overbought, so that it would not be appropriate to buy short-term Nebitcoin.

而到了2020年8月17日，币价重回12000刀，ahr999指数则只有1.2，那是因为当时的币价只是略微高于过去200日的定投成本及增长估值，因此币价虽然和一年前一样，但风险却远没有一年前那么高。

On 17 August 2020, the currency returned to 12,000 and the ahr999 index was only 1.2, because the currency at that time was only slightly higher than the set cost and growth valuation of the past 200 days, so that the currency price, while the same as a year ago, was far less risky than it was a year ago.

所以不同时期价格相同，但指数却可能不同。

So prices are the same at different times, but the index may be different.

这个指数被很多定投比特币的投资者用于指导自己定投比特币的指标。

The index is used by a large number of investors in Bitcoin to guide them in setting their own target for bitcoin.

网站https://ahr999.com/上有每天动态更新的最新指数。截至写稿时为止，ahr999指数是2.09，已经大于合适囤币的参考值1.2了。实际上从10月29日开始，这个指数就开始大于1.2了，当时比特币的价格是13259美元。按照参考值，从10月29日开始比特币就已经不再合适定投了。

The website has an up-to-date daily dynamic index. At the time of writing, the ahr999 index was 2.09, which is already greater than the reference value of 1.2. Indeed, starting on 29 October, the index was greater than 1.2, when the price of Bitcoin was $13259.

ahr999在11月5日的微博上就发了一篇长文，认为本轮比特币的囤币窗口已经正式关闭，建议持有者拿好自己的币等待币价起飞。博主还认为现在再囤币意义已经不是太大，主要原因是：一现在币价已经太高，二再囤也买不了多少币。

Ahr999 wrote on a tweet on November 5, saying that the currency hoarding window of this round of bitcoins had been officially closed, suggesting that the holder should hold up his own currency and wait for it to take off. The blogger also believes that it is no longer too much to hoard now, mainly because the currency is now too high to buy.

文章一发表，在圈内引起了很大的轰动，过去两年一直坚持囤币的投资者看了文章欢欣鼓舞，但过去两年因为种种原因错过了的朋友却是五味杂陈。

The publication of the article, which generated a lot of excitement in the circle, and the fact that investors who had been trying to hoard money for the past two years had been cheerful, had lost their friends for a variety of reasons over the past two years.

于是在11月14日，博主又发表了一篇文章对囤币进行了进一步的说明，主要是澄清了几个误区：

On 14 November, the blogger published a further article on the hoarding of currency, mainly clarifying several areas of error: .

1、如果过去两年坚持囤了，尽力了，接下来可以轻松一点。囤或者不囤，其实意义不大了。如果过去两年坚持囤了，尽力了，这个前提很重要。

First, if you keep hoarding for the past two years, try your best, then it's easier. If you don't, it doesn't mean much. If you keep hoarding for the last two years, do your best, that's a very important premise.

2、如果你过去两年没有囤，那就是另外一个问题了。我的答案是，现在这个时间点开始也不算差，毕竟ahr999指数也才1.6，币价也没有突破前高。虽然，最好的时机已经错了，但是有总比没有强。

Two, if you haven't hoarded in the last two years, that's another question. My answer is, it's not so bad at this point in time, after all, the ahr999 index is 1.6, and the currency does not go up. Although the best time is already wrong, it's better than nothing.

3 、每个人的处境不一样，对同一样东西的边际效应也不一样，于是决策就会不一样。过去两年坚持囤比特币的人，已经有了(对自己而言)不少的比特币，未来再多个10-20%的比特币，意义没有那么大了。而对于没有比特币的人，无论现在开始囤多少，都是增加了100%的比特币，意义是不一样的。

3 Each person is in a different position, and the marginal effect on the same thing is different, so decision-making is different. Those who have been hoarding bitcoins for the past two years have a lot of bitcoins, and 10-20% more bitcoins in the future, which is less important.

这三段话都是博文的原文，我认为写得非常好，因此特地摘引出来与大家分享。按照现在的情形，除非我之前文章写到担忧的那些不稳定因素爆发导致整个大市回调，否则，比特币再回到1万美元的几率已经不大。

These three words are in the original text, and I think they are very good, so they are drawn out and shared with you. Under the current circumstances, it is no longer likely that Bitcoin will return to $10,000 unless the destabilizing elements that I wrote earlier have led to a return to the big city.

对我们普通投资者而言，现在能做的就是努力提高赚钱的能力(这种能力比能不能抄到底更重要)，一旦大回调真的发生，抓住最后捡便宜筹码的时机。

For our ordinary investors, what can now be done is to try to improve their ability to make money (which is more important than being able to copy it) and to seize the opportunity to finally pick cheap chips once the big backlash really happens.