每经记者 蔡鼎 每经编辑 张杨运 何小桃
Every reporter, Choi Ding, every editor, Jang Xian, Ho Xiaowei.
涨、涨、涨……在经历整整一年多惨淡的熊市之后，比特币迎来了长达3个月的上涨。最近一段时间，比特币更是呈现摧枯拉朽之势，连续十天上涨，5月11日盘中曾达6938美元，距离7000美元仅有一步之遥。
Up, up, up, up, up, up, up, three months after a rough year of bears, Bitcoin has risen. In the recent period, Bitcoin has been in a state of desolation, rising 10 days in a row, with $6938 in the 11th of May, just one step away from $7,000.
比特币最近一个月走势
要知道，2018年12月比特币曾跌至3100美元。自今年2月以来，比特币价格已翻倍，成为全球范围内表现最好的资产。
You know, in December 2018, Bitcoin fell to $3,100. Since February of this year, bitcoin prices have doubled and become the world’s best-performing asset.
春风得意马蹄疾，在比特币社区，炒币者已满血复活，靠比特币一夜暴富的日子似乎又回来了，甚至有人喊出了6000美元是牛市起点，不过，正如一位炒币者所说，“别看比特币涨这么欢，很多人都还没解套”。
The spring wind swollen with horseshoes, in the neighbourhood of Bitcoin, where the snobbery was full of blood, and the day of the night-rich Bitcoin seemed to be back, even when it was called for $6,000 as the starting point for the bull market, although, as one of the snobblers said, “Don't look at the bitcoins rising so much that many people still haven't solved it”.
比特币满血复活，一度突破6900美元
Bitcoin came back to life with blood, a break of $6,900.
比特币最近一周的RSI值为65，创下2018年1月8日以来的最高水平，当时距离比特币创下近2万美元的历史高点，仅过去了几周时间。
Bitcoin's RSI value in the last week was 65, the highest level since 8 January 2018, when it was only a few weeks before it reached a historic high of nearly $20,000 from Bitcoin.
图片来源：Coindesk
上面的比特币周线图所示，RSI确实已经突破了传统意义上的50关口，也突破了53~60的区间。每日经济新闻（微信号：nbdnews）记者还注意到，从2014年初到2015年末，比特币每周的RSI从未超过60，这也限制了比特币上涨的势头。
As shown in the Bitcoin biline map above, RSI has indeed crossed the traditional 50-point and 53-60 gap. Daily economic news (microsign: nbdnews) journalists also note that between the beginning of 2014 and the end of 2015, Bitcoin’s weekly RSI has never exceeded 60, which limits the momentum of Bitcoin’s rise.
然而，在2015年10月，比特币每周的RSI终于突破50关口，这也反过来证明了比特币上涨势头已获得足够的力量，从而将整个加密货币市场从熊市转向牛市。自那以后到2017年末的近2万美元的历史高点，比特币上涨了约800%，这期间比特币每周的RSI均高于53。
However, in October 2015, the weekly RSI of Bitcoin finally crossed the 50-point mark, which in turn proved that the momentum of Bitcoin has gained enough power to shift the entire encoded currency market from Bear to Cow. From then on to the close to $20,000 historical high point of 2017, Bitcoin rose by about 800%, during which time the weekly RSI of Bitcoin was higher than 53%.
有趣的是，同样的事情似乎又在重演，北京时间9日午后，比特币涨破6000美元，此后更是持续上涨，5月11日一度突破6900美元，目前稳定于6700美元左右。
Interestingly, the same thing seems to be happening again: after 9 p.m. Beijing time, bitcoin rose by $6,000 and continued to rise, with a breakthrough of $6,900 on 11 May and currently stable at around $6,700.
虽然目前的价格，距离比特币在2017年年末时创下的历史高点仍有很大的差距，但比特币的多头认为，这一加密货币的复苏才刚刚开始。
While current prices still differ significantly from the historic highs that Bitcoin created at the end of 2017, a large number of Bitcoins believe that the recovery of this encrypted currency is only just beginning.
目前市场预计在短期内比特币的RSI值已经显示出“超买”，因此价格的回调是可以预期的。
The market is now expected to show a “overpurchase” of the RSI value of Bitcoin in the short term, so that the return of prices can be expected.
从价格上涨的驱动因素判断，避险依然是主因。在避险的同时，比特币的抛售压力明显减轻后，价格容易在资金推动下扩大涨幅。
In terms of the drivers of price increases, risk avoidance remains the main cause. While avoiding risk, the pressure on Bitcoin to sell is significantly reduced, prices tend to expand with financial incentives.
这里要提到的是，为什么是比特币起到了避险效果，因为大家对比特币的信心很强。在所有加密货币中选择避险，也只有比特币有这么大的市值容量，同时又具备了避险的属性。而这也正迎合了近期全球股市波动加剧后，所带来的避险需求。
The question here is why bitcoin is a hedge, because there is a lot of confidence in bitcoin. Of all the encrypted currencies, only bitcoin has such a large market value that it has the character of a hedge.
有意思的是，在比特币疯狂上涨的同时，其它币种的沉寂一度引起投资者的不安。不过，5月11日，数字货币市场火力全开，主力币种几乎全线上涨，截至发稿，以太坊大涨6%，莱特币大涨9.9%，瑞波币涨3.63%，比特币现金涨7%，币安币涨4%。
Interestingly, at the same time that bitcoins have gone up, the silence of other currencies has caused investors to worry. On May 11, however, the digital money market has opened up, the main currency has risen almost all the way up. As of the date of the publication, it has risen by 6 per cent in Taiku, and Leyt has risen by 9.9 per cent, Riponi by 3.63 per cent, Bitcoins by 7 per cent in cash and 4 per cent in currency.
多头：未来18个月上涨两倍分析师：大幅回调可能性高
一个利好消息是，5月9日，社交媒体巨头Facebook表示，对推广与加密货币有关的产品和服务的公司，将放宽广告禁令。Facebook去年6月实施了一项政策，要求事先取得书面批准，方能在其平台上打加密货币产品和服务的广告。
One good news is that on May 9, social media giant Facebook said that advertising bans would be eased for companies that promote products and services related to encrypted currency. Last June, Facebook implemented a policy requiring prior written approval to advertise encrypted currency products and services on its platform.
Facebook表示，“虽然我们仍然要求，如果有意投放加密货币广告，应进行申请，但从今天开始，我们将放宽政策，不再要求与区块链科技、行业资讯、加密货币教育和相关活动有关的广告须事先取得批准。”
Facebook states that “although we still require that applications should be made if an encrypted currency advertisement is intended, we will, from today's date, liberalize our policy by not requiring prior approval for advertising related to block chain technology, industry information, encryption money education and related activities”.
另外，CNBC曾发文指出，比特币上涨原因，可能来自投资机构对比特币交易的兴趣逐渐增加，如富达投资于今年初开始提供比特币托管服务，并传出将推出比特币交易服务。
In addition, CNBC has written that the reason for the increase in bitcoin may come from the growing interest of investment agencies in bitcoin transactions, such as Fuda's investment in the Bitcoin hosting service, which began at the beginning of the year, and the circulation of the Bitcoin trading service.
比特大多头迈克尔·诺沃格拉茨（Michael Novogratz）在接受CNN采访时表示，他预计比特币将在未来18个月时间内上涨两倍，并回到近2万美元的历史高点。在美国拉斯维加斯进行的SALT会议间隙，诺沃格拉茨表示：“比特币已经从去年的大崩盘中复苏。”
In an interview with CNN, Michael Novogratz, the majority of Beat, said that he expected Bitcoin to triple over the next 18 months and return to almost $20,000 in historic heights. On the margins of the SALT conference in Las Vegas, United States, Novogratz said: “Bitco has recovered from last year’s crash.”
曾担任对冲基金经理和高盛投资银行家的诺沃格拉茨认为，比特币不会再继续下跌到历史低点的位置。但问题在于，如果某一大型加密货币交易所遭到规模或者毁灭性的黑客攻击，又或者监管层突然发生重大的变化，那么将另当别论。
Novograds, who was a hedge fund manager and a Goldman Sachs investment banker, argued that Bitcoin would not continue to fall to historical lows. But the problem is that if a large, encrypted currency exchange is attacked by hackers of scale or destruction, or if there is a sudden and dramatic change in the regulatory hierarchy.
每日经济新闻记者注意到，全球最大的加密货币交易所之一的币安（Binance）本周二表示，黑客从公司窃取了价值超过4000万美元的比特币。币安表示，黑客偷走了7000多枚比特币，并使用了多种攻击方式来实施这次“大规模安全漏洞”。这些黑客还设法获取了一些用户信息，如验证码等。然而，这并没有动摇比特币投资者的信心。
Daily economic journalists note that Binance, one of the world's largest encrypted currency exchanges, said this Tuesday that hackers stole more than $40 million in bitcoins from companies. It says that hackers stole more than 7,000 bitcoins and used a variety of attacks to implement this “large-scale security breach.” The hackers also managed to access some user information, such as authentication codes. However, this did not shake the confidence of Bitcoin investors.
尽管如此，但诺沃格拉茨还是指出，想让各个机构能对投资比特币感到更为“舒适”，那么全球的加密货币交易所必须要减少这种情况的发生。此外，诺沃格拉茨还敦促加密货币交易所进行“自我监管”，从而增强它们的安全性，防止被黑客大规模攻击。
Nevertheless, Novograds points out that, in order for institutions to be more “comfort” in investing in bitcoin, a global crypto-currency exchange would have to be reduced. In addition, Novograds urges the crypto-currency exchange to “self-regulation” in order to enhance their security and prevent large-scale hacking.
与此同时，也有很多人对包括比特币在内的众多加密货币持怀疑态度，其中的部分原因是比特币价格的大幅波动。同样是在周三的SALT会议上，纽约大学教授、有着“末日博士”之称的鲁比尼（Nouriel Roubini）就抨击比特币是“所有泡沫和泡沫破灭的始作俑者。”
At the same time, many people are sceptical about a large number of encrypted currencies, including bitcoin, in part because of the large fluctuations in bitcoin prices. Also at the SALT meeting on Wednesday, New York University professor Nouriel Roubini, known as Dr. Apocalypse, criticized Bitcoin as “the founder of all bubbles and bubbles.”
目前诺沃格拉茨仍然非常看好比特币，但他也担心市场的过度上涨。
Now Novograds is still very much in favor of Bitcoin, but he is also concerned about the excessive rise in the market.
前摩根大通交易员、货币分析师Tone Vays表示，鉴于比特币自从突破3200美元（今年2月初）后就没有发生过大幅回调，而且在5100美元和5400美元的阻力位之间也没有出现过重大回调，因此比特币价格超过6000美元后，大幅回调的可能性更高。
Tone Vays, a former Morgan Chase dealer and currency analyst, stated that, given that Bitcoin had not made a significant repatriation since its breakthrough of $3,200 (early February of this year) and that there had been no significant reversions between $5,100 and $5,400 in resistance positions, it was more likely that it would make a significant repatriation after a price of over $6,000.
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