2017年,是比特币最辉煌的一年。这一年的12月17日,比特币来到历史高点:19891.99美元一枚,单位价格接近2万美元。有网友在微博算账:那时深圳一套三居室,还抵不上100个比特币;一辆奔驰S500顶配,都抵不上10个比特币。2009年比特币兑美元的汇率首次公布时,是1美元兑换1309.03个比特币,8年之后,变成1比特币兑换19891.99美元,比特币价格翻了2512万倍。但从2018年下半年开始,众多主流数字货币的闪崩引发了投资者的恐慌。
In 2017, the best year of Bitcoin. On December 17, that year, Bitcoin came to an historic high of US$ 891.99, at a unit price of nearly US$ 20,000. We had a friend at the microbrow: Shenzhen had a three-bedroom set at that time, which did not match the 100 bitcoins; a Mercedes S500 tops did not match the 10 bitcoins. When the dollar exchange rate was first announced in 2009, it was US$ 1,309.03, and eight years later, it became US$ 1,891.99, which doubled the price of Bitcoins.
自2018年11月14日起,在6000美元上方横盘2个月的比特币突然大跌近800美元,并在接下来的十几天内多次重挫,在19日、24日跌破5000美元、4000美元关口。截至11月27日,比特币收报3779美元,12天内价格跌去了40%。与2017年12月近2万美元的价格相比,跌幅超过80%。
As of 14 November 2018, the two-month bitcoin on the $6,000 above the plate fell suddenly close to $800 and, in the next 10 days, repeatedly crashed into $5,000 and $4,000 on 19 and 24 November. As of 27 November, Bitcoin had received $3779, with prices falling by 40 per cent in 12 days. Compared to the nearly $20,000 price in December 2017, the fall was more than 80 per cent.
全球加密货币系数暴跌,过去一周内,全球市值排名前100的加密货币中,有73种跌幅超三成。据CoinMarketCap.com的数据显示,加密货币市场的总市值已经从2018年1月的高点,蒸发掉7000亿美元,缩水85%。
关于比特币本次大跌的原因,市场普遍认为是受到比特币现金分叉大战、美国监管从严以及美股大幅波动等影响。
With regard to the reason for the sharp fall in bitcoin, strang's market is widely perceived to be influenced by bitcoin cash splits, tight United States regulations, and large fluctuations in United States shares.
首先,比特币现金分叉大战触发了第一轮下跌。 11月15日,比特币现金出现“硬分叉”,与比特币现金有关的两大不同的开发阵营——以比特大陆CEO吴忌寒为首BCHABC和号称自己是中本聪本人的“澳本聪”为首BCH SV一直在争夺主导权地位。投资者担心,比特币分叉将导致稀缺性变差,现有比特币价值将会被摊薄。
On November 15, Bitcoin cash appeared as a “hard split,” with two different development camps associated with Bitcoin cash – the BCHABC, headed by CEO Wu typhus on the Bitcoin continent, and the BCH SV, called itself the medium-brained human being, having been competing for dominance. Investors fear that the Bitcoin split would lead to a scarcity gap, and the value of the current bitcoin would be diluted.
另外,市场对加密货币从严监管的恐慌也是触发暴跌的原因。
In addition, market panics over tight regulation of encrypted currency were the cause of the collapse.
11月16日,美国证监会(SEC)官网发表发布《数字资产证券发行与交易声明》,宣布对两个1CO项目进行处罚,并要求其将已发行的代币登记为证券。据悉,本次的判决结果也可能适用于过去两年中95%的1CO项目。
On 16 November, the SEC network published a Statement on Digital Asset Securities Issuance and Transactions, in which it announced penalties for two 1CO projects and asked them to register issued tokens as securities. It is known that the results of this judgement may also apply to 95% of 1CO projects in the last two years.
11月20日,美国司法部开始着手调查2017年12月比特币的暴涨是否涉嫌市场操纵——加密货币交易中最主流的稳定币USDT及其背后的交易所Bitfinex可能被用于非法操纵价格。
On 20 November, the United States Department of Justice initiated an investigation into whether the December 2017 surge in Bitcoin was suspected of market manipulation — the most dominant stable currency in encrypted currency transactions — and its underlying exchange, Bitfinex, could be used to illegally manipulate prices.
实际上,美国对加密货币的发展一直保持谨慎,SEC已多次拒绝比特币ETF的上市请求。
In fact, the United States has been cautious about the development of encrypted currencies, and SEC has repeatedly rejected the listing request of the Bitcoin ETF.
此外,美股股市近期大幅波动,市场恐慌情绪蔓延,作为风险资产的比特币也难免收到波及。而比特币价格不断破位,也引发机构恐慌性抛售、矿机关停、中小型交易所倒闭等连锁反应,进一步打压价格。
Moreover, the recent volatility of the United States stock market and the spread of panic in the market, as well as the exposure of bitcoin as a risky asset, are inevitable. The continued collapse of bitcoin prices has also triggered a chain reaction of institutional panic, the suspension of mining agencies, and the collapse of small and medium-sized exchanges, further straining prices.
比特币,起源于一个“去中心化的加密货币”梦想,但与大多数梦想一样,未必扛得住现实的击打。
Bitcoin, which originated in a “de-centralized encoded currency” dream, does not necessarily bear the brunt of reality, as most dreams do.
2009年1月3日,中本聪发布了开源的第一版比特币客户端,标志着比特币的诞生。此后的10年里,基于不同区块链技术创新的各种加密货币不断出现,根据Coinmarketcap网站统计,截至目前,全球加密虚拟货币共有2000多种。
On 3 January 2009, China’s first version of the open-source Bitcoin client was released, marking the birth of Bitcoin. Over the next 10 years, a variety of encrypted currencies based on technological innovations in different block chains have emerged. According to Coinmarkcap, to date, there are more than 2,000 encrypted virtual currencies worldwide.
2011年4月,比特币的价格第一次达到1美元,2017年12月,1枚比特币价格高达近2万美元。7年的时间,比特币价格涨了2万倍!
In April 2011, the price of Bitcoin reached US$ 1 for the first time, and in December 2017, the price of a bitcoin was nearly $20,000. In seven years, the price of bitcoin increased 20,000 times!
在此期间,比特币投资出现过两轮热潮,并随之出现两轮泡沫破灭。2013年,比特币价格翻了85倍,第二年便出现暴跌,并在随后两年间下跌了80%,原因是Mt.Gox交易所遭到黑客攻击,动摇了众多早期投资者的信心。第二轮热潮出现在2017年,一年间比特币涨幅超25倍,2018年比特币泡沫再次破灭,至今暴跌仍在持续之中。两次暴涨暴跌中,有人一夜暴富及时撤退,也有人眼看已到手的巨量财富付诸东流。
In 2013, the price of Bitcoin increased 85 times, fell sharply in the second year, and fell by 80% in the following two years, owing to the hacking of the Mt.Gox Exchange, which shaken the confidence of many early investors. The second wave occurred in 2017, when it rose by more than 25 times in one year, and when it collapsed again in 2018, the bubble of Bitcoin continued to collapse.
与此同时,加密货币交易市场始终处于野蛮生长阶段,监管缺失,时常曝出市场欺诈、市场操控、黑客入侵等丑闻。
At the same time, the encrypt currency exchange market has always been a barbarous growth phase, with lack of regulation and frequent exposure to scandals such as market fraud, market manipulation and hacking.
2017年8月开始,中国对加密货币的监管日渐从严,当年9月,所有加密货币境内交易所全部关停。但中国比特币“挖矿”始终活跃,也催生了一批以出售矿机牟利的企业,如比特大陆、嘉楠耘智和亿邦国际等。
Since August 2017, China’s domestic exchange of encrypted currency has been shut down. But the Chinese “mining” of bitcoin has been active, and it has led to the creation of businesses that profit from selling mining machines, such as Bitcoin, Carna Ji, and Billion States International, among others.
在美国霍夫斯特拉大学任教的罗德里格博士(Jean-Paul Rodrigue)曾创造了“经典资产泡沫价格曲线”模型,定义了一种资产泡沫形成和破灭的每个阶段。假如把比特币价格走势套用到这个模型上,会发现它的演变过程和200年前的密西西比泡沫,以及20年前的互联网泡沫有着惊人的相似。
Jean-Paul Rodriguez, a professor at the University of Hofstra, created the classic asset bubble price curve model, defining every stage of asset bubble formation and collapse. If the price stance of Bitcoin were applied to this model, it would be seen to evolve in a way that resembled the Mississippi bubble 200 years ago, and the Internet bubble 20 years ago.
作为一种新生事物,加密货币近年来可谓吸足了人们的注意力,围绕其价值的讨论也从未断绝。当市场热情高涨时,加密货币曾比作“数字黄金”,因为它和黄金一样,具有产量小、挖掘难度高、国际化、没有发行机构等特点。
As a new thing, encrypting money has drawn attention in recent years, and discussions about its value have never been cut off. When markets have become more passionate, it has been compared to “digital gold” because, like gold, it is characterized by low yields, difficulty in digging, internationalization, and the absence of distribution agencies.
但绝大多数国家央行都对加密货币态度谨慎,投行高盛在2018投资年度展望报告中,就已提出比特币等数字货币目前已经处于泡沫阶段。而典型的反对派如股神巴菲特,则认为加密货币没有产生任何相关的价值,只能等着别人用更高的价钱接盘。当比特币价格在100多美元的时候,巴菲特曾说比特币是老鼠药。后来比特币涨到9000多美元,当记者再次问他有什么看法,巴菲特回答说:“可能是老鼠药的平方了。”
But the majority of central banks are cautious about encrypted money, and Goldman Sachs, in his annual investment outlook report for 2018, has suggested that digital currencies such as Bitcoin are now in a bubble phase. And typical opponents, such as the gist of Buffett, argue that the encrypt currency does not produce any relevant value, but waits for someone else to use it for a higher price.
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