今天是2023年A股收官之日，上证指数（沪指）能否收复3000点大关，成了最大看点。
& nbsp; Today is the date of A's withdrawal in 2023, and it's the biggest point of view whether the API will be able to recover the 3,000 points.
在A股市场，3000点是一个标志性的存在，是“楚河汉界”，是投资者的信仰。事实上，这一个数字本身没有特别的含义，之所以投资者看重，是因为它承载着2亿多股民、7亿多基民的期望。围绕着3000点，股民们的心情也随之变化，时而陷入灰暗，时而看到曙光。
In the A-share market, 3,000 points are an iconic existence: & ldquo; &rdquao on Chu River & & rdquao; and the investor’s faith. In fact, this number itself has no particular meaning, and investors value it because it carries the expectations of more than 200 million stockholders and 700 million Qataris. Around 3,000 points, shareholders’ moods change, and sometimes fall into the dark and see the light.
回顾历史，自2007年年初沪指第一次迈上3000点后，在这个关键点位有过50多次的争夺，前前后后持续了16年。保卫战的胜败，在某种意义上看也成了A股牛熊的分界。
Looking back at history, there have been more than 50 competitions at this critical point since the beginning of 2007, when it was the first time that it hit 3,000, and 16 years before and after. The victory in the defense battle has also, in a sense, become the division of the A cattle bear.
在2023年，沪指曾三次跌破3000点。但好在，大家对3000点似乎已没有那么执着，多了一份淡定从容。
In 2023, it fell 3,000 points three times. But, well, you don't seem so committed to 3,000 points, you know, a little more calm.
拥抱结构性行情
Embrace structural behavior.
年底的一天，杭州的投资者谭先生收到了券商APP的“年度账单”，他发现自己的收益率和指数的涨跌高度相关。
One day at the end of the year, Mr. Tan, an investor in Hangzhou, received a voucher from APP & ldquo; an annual bill & rdquo; and found that his rate of return was highly correlated with the rise and fall of the index.
凭借着AIGC（生成式人工智能）的几个股票，谭先生在一季度的收益率超过了26%。5月10日，他赚了2万多元，是一年中最多的一天。
With several shares in AIGC, Mr. Tan earned more than 26 per cent in a quarter. On May 10, he earned more than 20,000, the largest day of the year.
而这一天，也是2023年A股的分水岭。1月3日到5月9日，沪指从3087.51点起步，一路上涨到3418.95点，涨幅达8.69%。
This day is also a watershed for Unit A in 2023. From 3 January to 9 May, the points began at 3087.51 and went up to 3418.95, an increase of 8.69 per cent.
随后，沪指急转直下，虽然偶有反弹，但再难回到3400点的高度。
It was then hard to get back to the altitude of 3,400 points, despite occasional rebounds.
2022年底，前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙曾经预测，2023年A股和港股会出现结构性牛市行情。“我们要积极拥抱2023年结构性行情，收复失地。”
By the end of 2022, Yang Delong, the chief economist of the former Kaitsu Foundation, had predicted a structured cattle market in 2023 for A and Ports. & ldquo; we want to embrace the 2023 structural situation and recover the lost ground. & rdquo;
站在年尾看，2023年较大结构性行情是人工智能、北交所、汽车、煤炭等板块。
At the end of the year, the larger structural dynamics in 2023 were artificial intelligence, north border posts, cars, coal, etc.
幸运的是，谭先生抓住了人工智能和北交所两波行情。
Fortunately, Mr. Tan captured two waves of AI and North Sidekicking.
下半年开始，谭先生发现，在大盘震荡向下的行情里，怎么做都不对，一季度的收益全部回吐，并且还出现了较大的亏损。
In the second half of the year, Mr. Tan discovered that nothing had been done right in the face of the big swings, that all of the gains of the quarter had been thrown back and that there had been significant losses.
谭先生选择休息几个月。在这期间的10月20日，沪指年内第一次跌破3000点，他感到很庆幸。
Mr. Tan chose to take a few months off. On 20 October of that time, he was glad that he had fallen 3,000 points for the first time in the year.
10月初，券商邀请谭先生开通北交所权限，他一开始也没在意，但隐隐约约感到会有大事发生。
At the beginning of October, Mr. Tan was invited by the voucher dealer to open the North Exchange, and he did not care at first, but felt that something was going to happen.
到了10月底，北证50指数持续上涨，多只股票在短短一周内翻倍。在“看完热闹”之后，谭先生也入场了，他要在短暂的结构性行情里，找回失去的时间。
By the end of October, the North Certificate 50 index continued to rise, with more than one stock doubling in just one week. In “ after watching & rdquao; and after that, Mr. Tan came in, he had to recover his lost time in a short period of structural behavior.
“3000点也许收复，也许不收复，我已经不太关注了。重个股，轻指数，在震荡市里依然能赚到钱。”谭先生说。
& ldquo; 3000 may recover, maybe not, and I'm not paying much attention. Heavy shares, light indices, still make money in the concussion market. & rdquao; Mr. Tan says.
3000点的怕与爱
3000 for fear and love.
谭先生毕竟是幸运的，对于大部分股民来说，仍在3000点的“魔咒”中煎熬。
After all, Mr. Tan is fortunate, and for most of the shareholders, he is still suffering at 3,000 o'clock; the spell and the spell.
12月5日，时隔一个半月之后，沪指盘中再度失守3000点关口。12月12日，沪指短暂收复3000点，又在一天后失守。
On 5 December, one and a half months later, another 3,000 points were missed in the platinum. On 12 December, the platinum briefly recovered 3,000 points and lost one day later.
今年3000点的反复，忙坏了潮新闻的证券记者。在《3000点的怕与爱》一文中，记者指出，老股民对3000点的短暂得与失已经是见怪不怪了：A股史上跌破3000点已经多达50次之多。最终大家发现，这个位置就是一张纸，一捅就破。
This year’s 3,000 p.m. has been repeated and has been busy with tidal news. In the article “The 3000 Fear and Love”, journalists say that it’s not surprising that the old shareholder’s short-term gain or loss of the 3,000 points is: 3000 points have fallen in A’s history as many as 50 times. Finally, it turns out that the position is a piece of paper, and it breaks as soon as it hits.
拥有30年股龄的毛先生对2005年的熊市印象深刻。在那一年，沪指最低达到了998.23点。
Mr. Mao, of 30 years of age, was impressed by the 2005 Bear City, where the lowest figure was 998.23.
“这是中国股市成熟以后跌得最深的一次，也是一个很有想象力的数字。经历过这一次，后面的3000点保卫战也就不值一提了。”毛先生说。
& ldquo; this is one of the deepest and most imaginative figures of the Chinese stock market when it matures. After this time, the 3,000-point defense battle that followed is not worth mentioning. ” Mr. Mao said.
2007年初，沪指第一次迈上3000点，此后围绕着这一点位上下波动。这中间，上演了许多悲欢离合的财富故事。
At the beginning of 2007, it was the first time that 3,000 points had come up, and then there had been waves around it. In the middle, there had been a lot of sad and distant wealth stories.
据招商证券核算，从2007年到现在4000多个交易日，沪指低于3000点的约2000天，高于3000点的有2100多天。从核算学的角度看，3000点正好是中位数。
According to securities accounting, from 2007 to now there are more than 4,000 trading days, i.e. about 2,000 days below 3,000 points and more than 2100 days above 3,000 points. From an accounting point, 3,000 points are exactly the median.
毛先生分析，2007年、2008年的3000点和现在大不相同，当时A股上市公司总数不足2000家，上证指数的成分股也就900家，三四十倍的估值，有泡沫；现在的3000点，A股有5000多家上市公司，上证指数成分股2000多家，仅有十一二倍的估值，更为廉价。
Mr. Mao analysed the difference between 3,000 points in 2007, 2008 and now, when the total number of A-listed companies was less than 2,000, with 900, 30 or 40 times the value of the crediting index component and a bubble; at 3000, there were now more than 5,000 listed companies in the A-stock, and more than 2,000, with only 11 or 2 times the value of the certificate-based component, which was cheaper.
如是金融研究院院长、首席经济学家管清友近日一次发言也提到了这一点。他表示，在2005、2006年时，上证指数里的行业都是朝阳行业、新型行业，估值很高。随着上市数量的增加，以及由于产业发展阶段导致的行业估值的变化，整体传统行业估值不断下移。
This was also mentioned in a recent statement by the President of the Institute of Financial Studies, the Chief Economist, who said that in 2005 and 2006 the industries included in the above index were the Yangtze industry, the new industry, and were highly valued. As the number of listings increased, and as a result of changes in industry valuations in the industrial development phase, the valuation of the traditional industry as a whole moved downwards.
“牛市不会缺席”
& ldquao; cattle will not be absent & rdquao;
我们即将进入2024年。不出所料，未来一段时间里，沪指仍会在3000点上下震荡。
We're about to enter 2024. Unforeseen, the finger will still shake at 3,000 in the future.
“上证指数维持在3000点左右已经是非常牛了。不要老盯着3000点，要全面客观地看待所谓的‘保卫3000点’，上证数量在增加，我们开发了很多新的指数。”管清友说。
& & ldquo; it's amazing to keep the above index at around 3,000. Don't stare at 3000, look at the so-called &lsquao in a comprehensive and objective way; defend the 3,000-point ’ the numbers are increasing, and we've developed a lot of new ones.
对于大多数持仓的股民来说，这一轮熊市的亏损始于2022年底创业板的调整，至今持续了24个月的时间，和2012年的那轮创业板熊市基本相当。
For the majority of stockholders, the losses in this bear city began with the restructuring of the entrepreneurship board at the end of 2022 and have continued for 24 months to date, roughly the same as in 2012.
在多重因素影响下，A股市场已经来到底部区域，各大指数的估值处都在历史低位。
The A share market has come to the bottom of the region and the valuations of the major indices are historically low, influenced by multiple factors.
10月底以来，沪指在3000点附近持续震荡之时，产业资本、上市公司密集发布回购进展公告，掀起“回购潮”，表达对A股充满信心。
Since the end of October, at a time of sustained shock near 3,000 points, industrial capital, listed companies, have issued intensive notices of repurchase progress, triggering & & & & & rdquao; and expressing confidence in the A share.
前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙表示，从历史上看，在市场低位往往会出现大量上市公司回购，这是市场见底酝酿上涨行情的重要特征，对于提振市场信心是有利的。
According to Yang Delong, the chief economist at the former Kaitsu Foundation, there is historically a tendency for large numbers of listed companies to buy back at low market positions, which is an important feature of the market’s underlying upturn and is conducive to boosting market confidence.
对此，各大机构也纷纷发声，称A股已见底。
In response, statements were also made by the major agencies claiming that the A Unit was at the bottom of the list.
中金公司指出，A股当前估值水平、成交、上市公司行为等一系列指标显示资产价格可能已经隐含过于悲观预期，而与此对应的，内外部环境正在显现积极变化。后市来看，A股反弹或随时而至。
China Gold notes that a range of indicators, such as the current valuation level of A shares, trading transactions, and the behaviour of listed companies, suggest that asset prices may have implicitly been overly pessimistic and that, by contrast, the internal and external environment is showing positive changes.
“2024年A股和港股有望发动新一轮牛市的行情，现在我们又站在新一轮牛市的起点。”前海开源基金战略顾问王宏远表示，从历史上看，香港股市多次在牛市末期比A股率先见顶，在熊市末期比A股率先见底。本轮香港股市见底时间是12月11日，A股市场是12月21日。
& & ldquo; 2024 A and Ports shares are expected to launch a new round of cattle, and we are now at the beginning of a new round of cattle. & & & & & Rdquo; Wang Hongwan, a strategic adviser to the former Haiqai Fund, said that the Hong Kong stock market had historically taken the lead at the end of cattle and the bottom at the end of Bear City. The bottom of the round was December 11, and the A market at the end of December 21.
“近期大盘在跌破2900点整数关口之后，出现了一波反弹的走势。沪指曾50次跌破3000点，但也同样50次重新站上此点位。”杨德龙说，这轮牛市只会迟到，不会缺席。
& & ldquo; a recent wave of rebounds after falling through the 2900 full-point threshold. & & & ldquo; & Yang de Long said that the bull market will only be late and will not be absent.
来源：潮新闻 | 撰稿：甘居鹏 刘芫信 | 责编：俞舒珺 审核：张渊
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