业内专家提醒，场外市场存在交易成本、价格实时、资金安全、换汇问题及各国政策风险
In-house experts remind that off-site markets have transaction costs, real-time prices, financial security, swap issues and national policy risks
■本报记者 刘 琪
I'm a journalist for this newspaper, Liu Ki.
比特币市场行情再一次让我们体验到“一半是海水，一半是火焰”的奇观。
The Bitcoin market has once again made us feel the wonder of "half is sea water and half is fire."
10月31日，比特币中国、火币网和OKCoin三大国内交易平台停止所有数字资产兑人民币交易业务。然而，在中国拉下比特币交易的闸门中，国际币价却再创新高。10月30日，比特币价格一度突破6300美元/个，而截至11月3日13时30分，根据火币网国际站价格显示，比特币价格报价7143.75美元/个，较前一交易日上涨1.69%。
On 31 October, the three main domestic trading platforms of Bitcoin, China, the Currency Network, and OKCoin stopped trading all digital assets against the renminbi. However, international currency prices were newly high in the gate where China pulled down the Bitcoin deal. On 30 October, Bitcoin prices once exceeded $6,300 per unit, while, as at 1330 hours on 3 November, the price of bitcoin was quoted at $7143.75 per unit, an increase of 1.69 per cent over the previous day of the transaction.
虽然国内的比特币交易停止，但对国内比特币投资者而言，并不意味比特币交易时代的终结，比特币交易出现由场内交易向场外交易的迹象，国家互金专委会近日发布的《比特币场外交易监测报告》（以下简称《监测报告》）也证实了这一点。其中指出，随着9月初国内ICO和比特币交易的业务清理，场外交易再一次繁荣。从LocalBitcoin及Paxful两家平台交易数据来看，BTC-CNY（比特币兑人民币）场外交易量占其比特币场外交易总量的份额从5%左右上升至20%左右。
Although domestic bitcoin transactions have ceased, for domestic bitcoin investors, this does not mean the end of the bitcoin trading era, as the Bitcoin transactions show signs of off-the-shelf transactions from within the field, as confirmed by the recently released Bitcoin Out-of-Street Transaction Monitoring Report (hereinafter referred to as the Monitoring Report) by the National Monetary Commission. It is stated that, with the clean-up of domestic ICO and Bitcoin transactions in early September, off-the-spot transactions again flourished. According to data from the Local Bitcoin and Paxful platforms, the share of BTC-CNY (bitcoin vs. renminbi) off-the-shelf transactions increased from around 5% to 20% of their total out-of-court transactions.
不过，比特币场外交易也存在风险。苏宁金融研究院互联网金融中心主任在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，“场外交易存在撮合交易成本高、价格不实时以及资金安全等问题，境外交易所交易主要的困难在于语言障碍和换汇问题。当前，国际范围内只有极少数的地区对虚拟货币交易所进行了实质性监管，绝大多数交易所没有监管的介入，或多或少都存在技术实力、诚信度以及用户权益保护等潜在问题。”
However, there is also a risk of off-site transactions in Bitcoin. In an interview with a journalist from the Daily Securities Journal, the Director of the Center for Internet Finance at the Suning Institute of Finance stated that “off-site transactions have problems of matching transaction costs, non-real-time prices, and financial security, and the main difficulties with offshore exchange transactions are language barriers and exchange problems.
除了以上风险，中国人民大学国际货币研究所研究员李含虹对本报记者表示，目前各国的法律法规对比特币未完全定性，不排除未来炒币存在的政策风险。
In addition to the above risks, Li Han Yong, a researcher at the International Monetary Institute of the People's University of China, stated to the newspaper's reporters that the current national laws and regulations, which do not fully characterize the bitcoin, do not exclude the policy risks that may exist in the future.
不受国内关闭交易市场影响
Insistence from domestic closure of trade markets
比特币盘中站上4万元
Forty grand on the bitcoin plate.
9月4日，中国人民银行等7部委联合发布《关于防范代币发行融资风险的公告》（以下简称《公告》），指出代币发行融资本质上是一种未经批准非法公开融资的行为，国内通过发行代币形式包括首次代币发行（ICO）进行融资的活动大量涌现，投机炒作盛行，涉嫌从事非法金融活动，严重扰乱了经济金融秩序。国内比特币价格应声跳水，又接连受到国内平台宣布停止比特币交易的冲击，9月15日比特币盘中价格一度下跌至16827元/个。
On 4 September, the People’s Bank of China and seven other ministries issued a joint bulletin on protection against the risk of financing the issuance of currency in currencies (hereinafter referred to as the Proclamation), stating that the issuance of funds in currencies was essentially an unauthorized act of illegal public financing, and that domestic financing through the issuance of coins, including the first issuance of coins (ICO), had flourished, speculation had prevailed, suspected of engaging in illegal financial activities and had seriously disrupted the economic and financial order. The price of domestic bitcoins had jumped, and the price in the Bitcoin plate had fallen to 16827 yuan per plate on 15 September.
但是低迷行情很快迎来变化，比特币价格从9月下旬便开始上窜。9月30日，比特币盘中最高价格已到26000元/个。而10月份价格持续走高，尤其是10月份的最后三天实现三连阳，买方表现强势，似乎完全不受国内比特币交易平台停止交易业务的影响。据OKCoin比特币行情显示，10月29日，比特币开盘报35109.72元/个，收盘报35451元/个，涨幅0.97%；10月30日，比特币开盘报35450.1元/个，收盘报36189.11元/个，涨幅2.08%；10月31日，比特币开盘报36189元/个，盘中最高站上4万元大关，最终报收38379.69元/个，涨幅6.05%。以9月15日的最低价格和10月31日最高价格比较计算，比特币在47天的时间里上涨了137.71%。
The price of Bitcoin rose by 0.97% on 30 September, while the price of October continued to rise, especially during the last three days of October, when the buyer showed strong behaviour and appeared to be completely unaffected by the cessation of the business of the domestic Bitcoin trading platform. According to the situation of OkCoin bitco, on 29 October, the price of Bitcoin opened $35109.72/and closed $35451/and increased by 0.97%; on 30 October, the price of Bitcoin opened $34550.1/and closed 36189.11/and increased by 2.08%; and on 31 October, the price of the currency opened at the top of the plate was $36189/and the price of the plate rose by 47.1% on 31 October, resulting in a total of $38,379.69/and an increase of 6.05%.
对于比特币价格回升背后的推手，李含虹对《证券日报》记者分析道：一是比特币部分用于服务黑色产业，洗钱与灰色交易需求不能杜绝，不计名的特征使其服务于黑产与地下洗钱的诉求；二是比特币分叉之后，作为其中一部分的稀缺性进一步得到体现；三是俄罗斯等国跟中国一样也禁止比特币交易与叫停ICO，但日本等国仍然大力支持；四是山寨币频出，比特币作为区块链第一应用，其价值日益凸显，使其价格更趋坚挺。
With respect to the push behind the recovery of the Bitcoin price, Li Hanyung analysed the reporters of the Daily Securities Journal as follows: first, that bitcoin was partly used to serve the black industry, that the demand for money-laundering and grey transactions could not be eliminated, and that anonymous characteristics made it service the claims of black production and underground money-laundering; secondly, that the scarcity of bitco was further demonstrated as part of the split; thirdly, that Russia and China, like China, prohibited bitco trading and stopping ICO, but Japan and others remained strongly supportive; and fourthly, that the currency was frequent and that its value as the first application in the chain of blocks was increasingly prominent, making its price stronger.
而对于10月末国内比特币平台相继停止交易服务的同时，比特币价格日线仍走出红三兵，有分析人士对本报记者表示，原因在于国内虚拟货币交易所关闭交易已经为市场充分消化，不会对比特币走势产生实质性影响。同时，比特币交易将逐步缩量，价格将平稳。此外，关闭交易功能，中国投资者转道出海投资，但是由于币圈玩家本身就具备较高素质，所以不存在影响其投资价格的问题。
At the same time as the domestic Bitcoin platform stopped trading services at the end of October, the Bitcoin price line continued to move out of the ranks, with analysts saying to reporters that the closure of the domestic virtual currency exchange had been fully absorbed into the market and that it would not have had a substantial impact on the movement of the bitcoin. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin deal would gradually shrink, and prices would be stable.
场外比特币交易迎来爆发
There's an off-the-shelf Bitcoin deal coming out.
交易风险仍不容小觑
The risk of a transaction is still not negligible.
正如前述分析人士所提到的“中国投资者出海投资”，在国内比特币交易迎来强监管后，不少比特币投资者开始转道场外交易。在比特币等加密数字货币的生态链条中，比特币与法币的兑换交易是其中的重要环节。一般地，可以将其分为场内交易和场外交易。比特币场外交易的出现早于场内交易。场外交易通常没有固定的场所、规定的成员资格和严格的规则制度，主要是交易对手通过私下协商进行的一对一交易。比特币场外交易主要形式可以为三种，分别是线上P2P交易、线上B2C交易和线下交易。
As noted by the preceding analysts, “Chinese investors invest in the sea”, after domestic bitcoin transactions have come under strong regulation, a number of bitcoin investors have begun to trans-route off-site transactions. In the ecological chain of encrypted digital currencies such as bitcoins, bitcoins are an important link. Generally, they can be divided into intra- and off-the-ground transactions. Bitcoin off-the-ground transactions occur earlier.
实际上，场外交易一直存在，不过在《公告》发布后迎来一波爆发。《监测报告》显示，2017年2月份以前，BTC-CNY场外交易额相对较小。随着2月初国内主要比特币交易平台禁止提币，交易规模出现爆发式增长。自2017年6月份国内主要交易平台开放提币以来，交易规模明显减少。随着9月初国内ICO和比特币交易的业务清理，场外交易再一次繁荣。从LocalBitcoin及Paxful两家平台交易数据来看，BTC-CNY场外交易量占其比特币场外交易总量的份额从5%左右上升至20%左右。通过对近两周LocalBitcoins，Paxful，CoinCola三家平台的BTC-CNY交易数据进行分析，从交易规模上看，三家平台合计交易额6.8亿元，其中香港的CoinCola平台交易额增长显著，在三家平台中占比达七成。
In fact, off-site transactions have been on the rise since June 2017, when the main domestic trading platform opened up to raise the currency. With the clean-up of domestic ICO and Bitcoin transactions in early September, off-site transactions have flourished again. According to data from the Local Bitcoin and Paxful platforms, BTC-CNY off-site transactions accounted for about 680 million yuan of their total off-site transactions, of which the share of Coin Cola platforms in Hong Kong has risen from about 5% to 20%.
还有比特币投资者表示，9月份以来，一些比特币场外交易微信群特别火爆，这些群的用户超过百人，每天的交易量动辄几十万人民币，微信群主甚至为场外交易做担保，收取担保费。而前述分析人士告诉《证券日报》记者，还有一些投资者选择购买比特币基金，目前全美有124家对冲基金专注于数字货币资产管理，基金规模仍有较大的增长潜力。
There are also Bitcoin investors who say that since September, some of the Bitcoin off-the-shelf micro-certificates have been particularly hot, with more than 100 users, hundreds of RMB per day, and the owners of these groups even guarantee off-the-shelf transactions and charge security charges. The previous analysts told the daily paper journalists that some investors have opted to buy the Bitcoin Fund, and that 124 hedge funds across the United States are now focused on digital currency asset management, and that the size of the Fund has considerable potential for growth.
但是，场外交易的风险仍不容小觑。除了前面所提到的存在撮合交易成本高、价格不实时以及资金安全等问题外，李含虹认为比特币具有不记名的特征，有丢失的风险。并且，目前各国的法律法规对其未完全定性，不排除未来炒币还存在政策风险。
In addition to the above-mentioned problems of high transaction costs, non-real-time prices, and financial security, Li has argued that Bitcoin has an anonymous character and risks of loss. Moreover, the current national laws and regulations do not fully characterize it, and do not preclude the existence of policy risks in the future.
值得一提的是，国内比特币交易平台虽然停止数字资产兑人民币的交易业务，但并不代表没有其他的动作。10月30日下午，OKCoin和火币网同时公告称，将国内业务就地转化为区块链技术应用和开发公司，同时也不放弃比特币交易业务，即将进军海外市场。火币网创始人李林表示，火币在全球范围内已开展五大业务。其中，火币全球专业站服务于全球专业交易者的创新数字资产交易平台，目前提供近十个数字资产品类的交易及点对点投资服务，总部位于新加坡，在中国香港设有子公司；火币韩国基于韩元的数字资产交易平台，专注于为用户提供优质、便捷的韩元兑数字资产交易服务，总部位于韩国首尔。
It is worth mentioning that the domestic Bitcoin trading platform, although it stops trading in digital assets against the renminbi, does not mean that there is no other move. On the afternoon of October 30, OKCoin and the Trenchnet announced simultaneously that the local transformation of domestic operations into block chain technology applications and development companies, without abandoning the Bitcoin trading business, is about to enter the foreign market. Li Lin, the founder of the Currency Network, said that it has five major operations around the globe. Of these, the China Dollar Global Professional Station, which serves an innovative digital asset trading platform for global professional traders, currently provides almost 10 digital asset-type transactions and point-to-point investment services, with its headquarters in Singapore and its subsidiaries in Hong Kong, China; and the Currency Korea Digital Asset Trading Platform, based on Korean won, focuses on providing high-quality, ready-to-date Korean dollar digital asset trading services to users, with its headquarters in Seoul, South Korea.
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