【市场要闻回顾】
国内宏观
海外宏观
美国12月CPI同比上升3.4% 为2023年9月以来新高
United States CPI rises by 3.4 per cent in December, to a new high since September 2023
美国12月CPI同比上升3.4%，为2023年9月以来新高，预估为3.2%，前值为3.1%；美国12月CPI环比上升0.3%，预估为0.2%，前值为0.1%。美国12月核心CPI同比上升3.9%，为2021年5月以来新低，预估为3.8%，前值为4.0%；美国12月核心CPI环比上升0.3%，预期为0.3%，前值为0.3%。CPI数据公布后，互换合约显示市场下调美联储2024年降息预期。
The United States registered an increase of 3.4 per cent in December and a new increase of 3.2 per cent since September 2023, compared to 3.1 per cent; the United States projected a 0.3 per cent increase in December and a 0.2 per cent increase in December and a 0.1 per cent increase in December and a 3.9 per cent increase in December and a new decline of 3.8 per cent and a 4.0 per cent increase since May 2021; and the United States estimated a 0.3 per cent increase in December and a 0.3 per cent increase in December and a 0.3 per cent increase in the previous value. After the release of the CPI data, the exchange of contracts showed a lower market interest rate cut for the Fed in 2024.
美国官员：美国和英国已经开始对也门胡塞目标发动打击
United States officials: The United States and British have begun a strike on the Yemeni Al-Houthi target
据财联社援引路透社消息，美国官员称，美国和英国已经开始对也门胡塞目标发动打击。目击者称也门首都萨那市发生三起爆炸。
According to FAFI quotes from Reuters, United States officials claim that the United States and British have begun attacks on Al-Houthi targets in Yemen. Eyewitnesses report three explosions in the Yemeni capital, Sana'a.
欧洲央行执委Schnabel：当前谈论降息为时尚早
European Central Bank Executive Committee Schnabel: It's too early to talk about interest reduction
欧洲央行执委Schnabel表示，当前谈论降息为时尚早；中性利率水平可能会比疫情之前更高；欧洲央行必须监控购债的副作；需要更多数据来确认通胀回落。
According to the ECB Executive Board, Schnabel, it is too early to talk about interest rate reductions; the level of neutral interest rates may be higher than before the outbreak; the ECB must monitor the by-products of the purchase debt; and more data is needed to confirm the fall in inflation.
韩国央行将基准利率维持在3.50%不变
韩国央行1月11日宣布将基准利率维持在3.50%不变，符合市场预期。
The Central Bank of Korea announced on 11 January that it would maintain its benchmark interest rate at 3.50 per cent, in line with market expectations.
行业热点
比亚迪（002594）340,178辆、上汽通用五菱117,533辆、特斯拉中国94,139辆、吉利汽车60,447辆、理想汽车50,353辆、长安汽车47,330辆、广汽埃安45,947辆、赛力斯（601127）36,270辆、上汽乘用车35,024辆、长城汽车（601633）29,816辆、奇瑞汽车20,887辆、上汽大众20,588辆、小鹏汽车20,107辆、上汽通用18,911辆、零跑汽车18,618辆、蔚来汽车18,012辆、北汽乘用车12,811辆、华晨宝马10,519辆、智己汽车10,412辆、岚图汽车10,017辆、广汽传祺10,013辆。
On 9 January, the Federation released data for a total of 21 enterprises that had broken through in December 2023 (3 by the ring, 8 by the year), representing 92.8 per cent of the total number of new energy vehicles (88.8 per cent last month, 80.3 per cent last year).
字节、腾讯商谈游戏项目出售，加强游戏合作
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据晚点LatePost，字节跳动旗下游戏部门朝夕光年正与腾讯谈判出售多款游戏。接近交易的人士透露，涉及出售项目的团队分散在上海、深圳等地。朝夕光年已经为开发这些游戏花去上亿元，此次出售进行了较大幅度折价。朝夕光年旗下已上线的《晶核》与《星球重启》两款游戏正以“流水×估值乘数”等估值方式竞价出售。由于价格较高，且还涉及到未来持续投入的运营成本，目前尚未确定最终卖家。朝夕光年相关负责人回应，至今尚未敲定与腾讯的交易。此外，团队还在与多个买家商谈项目出售事宜。
According to LatePost, the game sector under the bytes is negotiating to sell multiplay games in the evening light year. People close to the deal reveal that the teams involved in selling the items are scattered in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and so on. Hundreds of millions of dollars have already been spent on developing these games in the morning and evening.
腾讯制定“春笋计划” 加大垂类游戏孵化力度
develops the Spring Plan to enhance the hatching of pitiful games
记者从腾讯内部了解到，1月8日，腾讯控股IEG(互动娱乐事业群)召开内部员工大会，管理层谈及游戏版号增多、游戏与短视频紧密连接等，当日腾讯还发布自研项目“春笋计划”，以对新机会、新玩法及垂类游戏孵化增加研发资源投入。大环境上，2023年，国产和进口游戏版号发放1075个，比2022年增加563个。IEG管理层在会议上提及，游戏环境有变好的迹象，包括2023年版号增多、亚运会有电竞项目等。游戏行业波动性可能会有，腾讯还是要自己抓机遇、铸强队。(第一财经)
From inside, journalists learned that on 8 January, IEG (Interactive Entertainment Group) held an in-house staff conference, where management spoke of the increased number of games, the close connection of games to short videos, etc. It also published a self-research project, the Spring Spring Plan, to incubate research and development resources for new opportunities, new games, and pits. In the larger environment, in 2023, the number of national and imported games was distributed, representing an increase of 563 from 2022. IEG management mentioned that there were signs of a change in the game environment, including the 2023 edition, and that there would be electric competitions in the Asia-Pacific industry.
【市场行情盘点】
权益市场 债券市场 商品市场 同花顺（300033）商品指数收报185.55，周跌1.09%，国内大宗商品跌多涨少，螺纹钢主力合约周跌1.94%，玻璃主力合约周跌7.45%，碳酸锂主力合约周涨4.26%，欧线集运主力合约周跌5.20%，沪金主力合约周跌0.33%，沪银主力合约周涨0.02%，燃油主力合约周跌3.55%。外盘方面，纽约金主连较上周跌0.44%，布伦特原油主连较上周涨0.63%。 ( 外汇市场 1月12日，在岸人民币兑美元16:30收盘报7.1622，较上一交易日下跌28点，周跌56个基点。人民币对美元中间价报7.1050，较上一交易日上升37点，本周人民币对美元中间价累计调贬21个基点。 On 12 January, at 16:30 a.m., the RMB was paid off against the United States dollar, down 28 points from the previous trading day and fell by 56 basis points. The RMB's median price against the United States dollar was 7.1050 points, up 37 points from the previous trading date, and this week the RMB's median price against the United States dollar was reduced by 21 basis points cumulatively. 海外市场 美股三大指数上涨，截至周四收盘，道琼斯指数报37711.02，累涨0.65%；纳斯达克指数报14970.19，累涨3.07%，标普500指数报4780.24，累涨1.77%。亚太股市收盘涨跌互现。韩国综合指数收跌0.6%，报2525.05点，连续8个交易日下跌，创2022年5月中旬来最长连跌纪录，周跌2.06%。日经225指数收盘涨1.5%，报35577.11点，连续5个交易日上涨，续创34年来新高，周涨6.59%。 The three main indices of the United States stock market rose, with the Dow Jones Index closing on Thursday, 37711.02, up by 0.65 per cent; the NASDAQ Index, 14970.19, up by 3.07 per cent, and the PAP 500 Index, 4780.24, up by 1.77 per cent; the Asia-Pacific stock market, up and down by 1.77 per cent. The Korea composite index fell by 0.6 per cent, reporting a 2525.05 point, and fell by eight consecutive days, up from a record peak of 2.06 per cent a week in mid-May 2022. 【机构观点】 国内机构 据证券时报，中信证券使用“双轮驱动资产配置策略”对1月大类资产的走势进行了分析。根据模型测算结果，市场延续“稳增长”状态，近1个月经济条件指数和金融条件指数均保持平稳，建议超配债券和股票。从基本面来看，经济和政策的积极因素开始增多，股票市场可能迎来重要拐点，预计债券和商品市场呈震荡走势。1月中国台湾地区领导人选举、降息的可能性和人民币汇率等宏观事件值得关注。 According to the Securities Times, Sino-Sino securities used a “double-wheel-drive asset allocation strategy” to analyse the movement of their assets in January. According to model calculations, the market continued to grow “stablely” and the economic and financial condition index remained stable for almost a month, suggesting over-associated bonds and equities. 中信固收：美国通胀黏性仍存，降息不应过度乐观 Trust in : US inflation is still sticky and interest reduction should not be overly optimistic 中信固收分析称，美国2023年12月CPI环比增速升至0.3%，略高于预期，核心CPI环比增速为0.3%，与预期一致。美国核心服务项通胀项依然是美国通胀的黏性所在，当前美国通胀下行斜率放缓，回归2%的“最后一公里”预计会耗时较久，但整体美国通胀压力仍处于可控范围。预计美联储已完成此轮加息，降息时点或于今年年中时点附近，短期而言，美债利率需警惕较大波动的风险。 In December 2023, the U.S.C.C.I.C.C.C.I.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C.C. was slightly higher than expected, at a rate of 0.3%. The US core service inflation continues to be sticky with US inflation. 中金公司：通胀超预期，美联储降息紧迫性下降 China Gold Company 中金公司（601995）研报指出，美国12月CPI同比增长3.4%(前值3.1%)，核心CPI同比增长3.9%(前值4.0%)，均高于预期。我们认为，美国通胀的大方向仍是放缓，但节奏存在很大不确定性，这意味着美联储货币政策将充满变数。如果美联储过早转向宽松，可能导致本就不差的需求反弹，增加经济“不着陆”和“二次通胀”风险。由此，投资者对于降息预期应更加谨慎，美联储或不会像市场希望的那样在3月份降息，全年降息6次的预期也可能是过于激进的。 () reports that the US CPI growth of 3.4 per cent in December (previous 3.1 per cent), the core CPI growth of 3.9 per cent (previous 4.0 per cent) is not expected to slow down, but that the US inflation trend is likely to be highly uncertain, implying that the Fed’s monetary policy will be highly volatile. 中信建投：金价在本轮加息周期中宽幅震荡，在未来降息时期会有更强劲的表现 : Gold prices will show stronger performance in the future interest-relief period by wide banding during the current interest-raising cycle 中信建投（601066）研报指出，1982年以来的降息，美股在预防式降息中表现强劲，在衰退式降息中弱势；商品以下跌为主；降息周期与加息周期黄金表现往往相反，降息好于加息。2024年美国将处于财政紧缩+净流动性收缩的组合，产出缺口将下降，这次很可能是衰退式降息。降息落地就是对经济开始显著放缓的确认，美股当前位置注意规避风险。商品难重演2001-2003年降息上涨的特例，降息落地后商品反而可能加速下跌。金价在本轮加息周期中宽幅震荡，在未来降息时期会有更强劲的表现。 瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊在瑞银大中华研讨会上指出，A股最坏时间已过，因企业盈利已开始反弹、政策继续发力，以及投资者信心有望改善。A股的企业利润率已于去年第三季触底，瑞银预测，沪深300指数今年每股盈利同比升幅为8%。政策支持方面，孟磊料今年仍有降息降准空间，内房政策亦会加码。同场的瑞银全球投资银行大中华区研究部总监连沛堃重申，预测MSCI中国指数今年有15%上升空间，当中有10%由盈利增长推动，5%由估值推升。该行看好港股后市，因外资持仓很低，市盈率仅8倍，且随着美国降息下外资重返中国股市，港股会是第一波受惠。(新浪财经) In terms of policy support, Mon Xing, a Chinese stock analyst for the Swiss Stock Exchange, noted that the worst-case scenario had passed, as business profits had begun to rebound, policies continued to work, and investor confidence was expected to improve. In the third quarter of last year, the A share of corporate profit rates had hit the bottom, with silver predicting a rise of 8% per share by the 300 index this year. In terms of policy support, Mon Xing was still in a position to reduce interest rates this year, and house policies were added. The Director General of the Great China Research Department of the Swiss Bank for Global Investment reiterated that 10 per cent of the projected 15 per cent increase in the MSCI index this year was driven by profit growth and 5 per cent by a valuation. The Bank’s post-capitalization market, with low foreign holdings and a market surplus of only 8 times, would benefit from the first wave as the US returns to the Chinese stock market. 高盛预计中国股市2024年将上涨17% 高盛预计MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数2024年的回报率分别为17%和19%，因企业盈利将增长约10%。 Goldman Sachs projected returns of 17 per cent for the MSCI China index and 19 per cent for the Xiaoyu 300 index in 2024, respectively, with an increase of about 10 per cent in corporate profitability. 摩根大通证券(中国)首席执行官陆芳：发挥外资机构专长 坚持服务实体经济 Chief Executive Officer of Morgan Chase Securities (China): Building on the expertise of foreign institutions to insist on serving the real economy 摩根大通证券(中国)有限公司首席执行官陆芳表示，“在证券一级市场，为了更好地服务中国实体经济，我们将着力服务包括科技创新、先进制造、绿色发展等领域的实体企业在境内外资本市场的需求，支持其创新驱动的发展战略，通过股权融资、债券融资、并购重组等方式，在实践中助力打通资金进入实体经济的渠道，推动注册制走深走实，同时积极参与境内外发行上市证券，以进一步提高上市公司质量和国际化程度。未来，公司还将继续在股票、策略研究、ESG等领域发力，并适时推出更丰富的衍生品和量化研究服务等，更好地服务境内外投资者在中国市场的长期发展。”(证券时报) The Chief Executive Officer of Morgan Chase Securities (China) Ltd. said, “In order to better serve the real economy of China at the securities level, we will invest in the needs of real enterprises in areas such as science, technology and innovation, advanced manufacturing, green development and so on, supporting their innovation-driven development strategies, facilitating in practice access to the real economy through equity financing, bond financing, and M & As restructuring, facilitating registration and further improving the quality and internationalization of listed companies, while actively participating in the issuance of listed securities within and outside the country. In the future, companies will also continue to work in areas such as stocks, strategic research, ESG, and, in due course, more abundant derivatives and quantitative research services to better serve the long-term development of domestic and foreign investors in China’s markets.” 贝莱德智库：若通胀进一步降温 风险资产料将延续涨势 贝莱德智库的策略师表示，如果通胀继续进一步降温，股票和其他风险资产在2023年最后阶段的大涨可能会延续到新的一年。Jean Boivin和Wei Li等人周一在市场周报中表示，如果价格压力继续缓解，美联储上月的转鸽势头可能会继续下去。鉴于宏观风险，贝莱德智库对发达市场股票的评级为低配，但称其正在向平配靠拢，理由包括人工智能主题和“阿尔法潜力”。 Jean Boivin and Wei Li, among others, said in the weekly market paper on Monday that if price pressures continued to ease, the Fed’s funnel momentum last month might continue. Given macro-risks, the Beled think tank’s rating of stock in developed markets is low, but claims that it is moving toward parity for reasons such as artificial intelligence themes and “Alfa potential.” 杰富瑞：iPhone今年中国销量预计将出现两位数下滑 Geoffrey: iPhone's expected double-digit drop in Chinese sales this year. 美国投行杰富瑞表示，苹果iPhone在中国的销量今年可能进一步下滑。杰富瑞以Edison Lee为首的分析师在一份报告中援引行业调查称，iPhone15去年在中国的开局异常低迷，最近的同比下滑幅度扩大至30%。与此同时，中国其他手机品牌的销售出现增长，华为凭借其Mate60新产品系列增长最快。杰富瑞预计，iPhone今年在中国的销量也会出现两位数下降。(新浪财经) In a report, Jeffrey, an analyst headed by Edison Lee, quoted the industry survey as stating that iPhone 15 had an unusually low start-up in China last year, with a recent decline of 30%. Meanwhile, sales of other Chinese mobile brands have increased, with China growing fastest with its Mate60 new product series.
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