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最近，比特币行情比“过山车”还刺激。今年1月23日，比特币价格闪崩，跌破39000美元关口。到2月中旬，比特币突破50000美元。从这时开始，比特币价格一路升高，3月8日突破70000美元，随后多次创下历史新高，3月13日最高触及将近74000美元。
By mid-February, Bitcoin had passed $50,000. From that time, Bitcoin prices had risen all the way to $70,000 on March 8, followed by several historic peaks, reaching nearly $74,000 on March 13.
然而就在3月17日，比特币行情出现反转，一度跌破65000美元关口，日内最大跌幅超过6%。之后“跌跌”不休，3月20日，比特币价格大幅下挫，跌破62000美元。因美联储降息预期，加密市场大幅反弹，比特币在3月21日一度站上68000美元，日内涨超6.8%。
However, just on March 17, Bitcoin experienced a reversal, once breaking the $65,000 threshold , with its largest fall of more than 6%. After that, “strong” fell, and on March 20, Bitcoin prices fell sharply, to $62,000. experienced a sharp rebound in the encryption market as a result of the Fed's forecast of interest reduction, with Bitcoin standing at
OKEx(欧易)研究院高级研究员赵伟分析认为，随着比特币创下年内新高，短期市场过热，杠杆率上升幅度较大，导致部分投资者风险偏好明显提升，不排除部分资金获利了结导致行情回落，回落的行情将进一步加剧部分投资者的恐慌性抛售。
The senior researcher at the OkEx (Oe) Institute, Zhao Wei, found that, as Bitcoin was new in the year and the short-term market overheated, the leverage rate rose considerably, leading to a marked increase in the risk preferences of some investors, which did not preclude the return of some financial gains, the fallback of
——全球加密货币数量
- Number of encrypted currencies worldwide
目前，全球范围各类加密货币和电子货币的出现，大量加密货币均为非金融机构创立，在区块链上发行与交易、具备独立交易价格。依据Finbold数据显示，2020年，全球加密货币数量仅为8000+个规模，到2021年，直接突破16000个，同比增长98.98%。
At present, a large number of encrypted currencies are being created by non-financial institutions, issued and traded on block chains, with independent transaction prices. According to Finbold data, the number of encrypted currencies worldwide was only 8,000 + sizes in 2020, and by 2021 it was over 16,000, an increase of 98.98 per cent.
——比特币产生原理
- Bitcoin Generation
比特币是一种总量恒定2100万的数字货币，其和互联网一样具有去中心化、全球化、匿名性等特性。比特币的运行离不开两个核心概念：节点以及去中心化账簿。每一台装有比特币客户端的电脑称为一个节点，每一个节点都是平等的，不存在一个中心节点。无数这样的电脑相互连接形成的网络则是一种去中心化账簿。
Bitcoin is a total constant digital currency of 21 million, which, like the Internet, is decentralized, globalized, anonymous, and so on. Bitcoin operates in two core concepts: nodes and decentralized books. Each computer with a Bitcoin client is called a node, and each node is equal, and there is no central node. Numerous of these computers are connected to one another, and the network is a decentralized book.
——比特币产业链全景图
- Full picture of the Bitcoin industrial chain
从产业链来看，比特币产业链上游环节为比特币生产硬件以及技术支持，其中硬件包括矿池、矿场、以及矿机制造，通用技术包括区块链技术、分布式计算、分布式存储等比特币基础通用技术。中游环节为比特币的交易流通环节，涉及到比特币交易所，以及相关的比特币转账、比特币兑换、比特币兑付等环节。下游环节为比特币的支付应用以及相应的服务支持，在某些国家，比特币可以当做真实货币实现流通，相应的也诞生了诸如比特币ATM等支付设施;比特币服务支持主要包括比特币存储、比特币商城、比特币社区等设施。
From the point of view of the industrial chain, the upper links of the Bitcoin industrial chain are bitcoin production hardware and technical support, including mining ponds, mines, and mining mechanisms. Common technologies include basic bitcoin technology such as block chain technology, distributional computing, distributional storage, etc. The middle-stream link is the Bitcoin transactional link, involving the Bitcoin exchange and the related bitcoin transfer, bitcoin exchange, bitcoin payment, etc. The lower link is the Bitcoin payment application and the corresponding service support. In some countries, bitcoin can be used as a real currency for circulation, and the corresponding payment facilities, such as Bitcoin ATM, have been created; the Bitcoin service support includes facilities such as Bitcoin storage, Bitcoin, the Bitcoin Community, etc.
前摩根大通首席股票策略师TomLee表示，比特币将很快达到82000美元，2024年底甚至有望达到150000美元。
Former Morgan Chase chief stock strategist, Tom Lee, said that Bitcoin would soon reach $82,000 and even $150,000 by the end of 2024.
华尔街明星基金经理、方舟投资管理公司首席执行官凯茜·伍德(木头姐)周五在纽约举行的比特币投资者日会议上表示，在牛市情景下，比特币价格可能达到380万美元，比她此前预测的高出200多万美元。去年我们预测牛市情景下比特币将达到150万美元，SEC给机构开了绿灯，尽管它确实不太情愿，但我们所做的分析是，随着时间的推移，如果机构投资者将其投资组合的5%多一点配置给比特币，正如我们认为的那样，仅这就会使我刚才给你的预测增加230万美元。
The Wall Street Star Fund Manager and Chief Executive Officer of Ark Investment Management, Cathy Wood, stated at the Bitcoin Investor's Day meeting in New York on Friday that, in the cattle market scenario, Bitcoin could reach $3.8 million, over $2 million higher than she had previously predicted. Last year, we predicted that Bitcoin in the cattle market scenario would reach $1.5 million, and that the SEC would give the agency a green light, although it was indeed reluctant, but our analysis was that, over time, institutional investors would allocate a little more than 5 per cent of their portfolio to Bitcoin, which, as we believe, would only add $2.3 million to the forecast I just gave you.
注：本文仅作内容传播，不构成任何投资建议。
Note: This paper is for content dissemination only and does not constitute any investment proposal.
前瞻经济学人APP资讯组
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更多本行业研究分析详见前瞻产业研究院《》。
More detailed information on research in this sector is available at the Institute of Forward-looking Industries.
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The Institute also offers solutions, such as information, advice, and so forth.
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