原创 | 刘教链
落霞与孤鹜齐飞，秋水共长天一色。
#xff0c. Falling water is a long day.
渐渐地，渐渐地，春天的脚步声近了。渐渐地，渐渐地，比特币（BTC）产量减半的脚步声也近了。昨天27日文章《比特币正在摆脱地心引力》中已经讲到，「还有20多天，第4级火箭就要燃尽，第5级火箭开启，继续推动我们飞向星辰大海！」
Gradually xff0c; slowly xff0c; spring's footsteps are approaching. Gradually xff0c; Gradually xff0c; Bitcoin xff08; BTC #xff09; half the output is approaching. Yesterday's 27-day article bitcoin is emerging from gravity already mentioned in xff0c; more than 20 days #xff0c; stage 4 rockets are about to burn xff0c; stage 5 rockets are on xff0c; continue to push us to the sea ff01;
BTC产量减半事件，是加密行业的大事件。这是火箭切换的时机，一旦切换成功，新一级火箭就会将BTC推向更远、更深的太空。
The BTC production by half & #xff0c; is a big event in the encryption industry. This is the time for rocket switching & #xff0c; once the switch is successful #xff0c; the new level 1 rocket will push BTC further and deeper into space.
这不仅对BTC是一件大事，对山寨币们更是一件大事。减半前后，BTC占有率会达到局部高位。而后随着牛市的进展，则会渐次跌落。到牛市最为疯狂之时，则会达到最低。这意味着，山寨币们此起彼伏地竞相拉升，陷入了被称作“山寨季”的狂欢！
This is a big deal not only for BTC xff0c; it's a big deal for mountain coins. Before and after half, xff0c; BTC occupancy will reach a local high. Then, as the cow market progresses xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; the lowest. This means xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; xff01 ;
群芳争奇斗艳时，BTC就被冷落了。正如词中所描摹的那样：
#xff0c; BTC is left out. As the words say #xff1a;
驿外断桥边，寂寞开无主。
无意苦争春，一任群芳妒。
上面这幅配图，出自于2023年12月9日教链内参《山寨的春天》。即，4个月前，教链就早早地在内参中提示了2024年减半和山寨季的即将来临。当时内参里是这么说的：
The above map xff0c; from in the chain of
「现在马上要到2024，又快到减半时刻。山寨的春天。所谓春天，就是播种的时节。如果挑到了好种子，等夏日到来，流动性扩散的时候，就会忽然长成参天大树。种瓜得瓜，种豆得豆。就像教链在2020年10月开始种不到2刀的uni。只是，果子拔苗助长，快速成熟后，要及时摘果子。别等果子烂在地里。风险控制非常关键。别超过10%仓位。试试能不能跑赢。要有跑输的准备。做好面对最坏结果的准备。」 will soon reach 2024xff0c; it will soon be halved. Spring is the spring of spring. xff0c; it is the time of seeding. When good seeds are picked up xff0c; when summer comes to xff0c; xff0c; when liquidity spreads, xff0c; it will suddenly grow into larger trees. 及至今年2月28日，教链文章《多位加密人士看涨ETH/BTC，或将促动山寨季的爆发》中援引网友Negentropic的观点，即ETH/BTC的反弹将推动山寨季的汇率，这将会是艾略特波浪理论的顶部爆破（Blow-Off Top）模式。 xff0c of February 28th, multiple cryptographers see ETH/BTC， ; or quote Negentropic xff0c, an online friend who will drive the eruption of the mountain season ; i.e. ETH/BTC's rebound will drive the exchange rate of the mountain season #xff0c; this will be the top blast of the Elliott Wave theory xff08; Blow-OffTop#xff09; mode. 让我们靠近一些，来看一看过去几轮周期的山寨季演进情况，以史为鉴。 Let's get closer to some #xff0c; take a look at the evolution of the past seasons #xff0c; look at history. 2016年的山寨季 2016年的山寨，在BTC产量减半之后，经过了长达7-8个月的低迷和准备，到了2017年开始，才随着BTC大牛市的启动，迅速爆发。 xff0c in 2016; after halving BTC production xff0c; after 7-8 months of depression and preparation xff0c; by 2017 xff0c; only with the start of BTC Bull City xff0c; rapid eruption. 但是要注意，2016-2017年的时候，山寨市场根本就是几乎不存在。在2017年山寨季爆发之前，BTC的市场占有率居于绝对95%以上的绝对统治地位。 But pay attention to xff0c; 2016-2017 xff0c; the barrage market is virtually non-existent. Prior to the onset of the 2017 season, xff0c; BTC’s market share was absolute over 95%. 2020年的山寨季 2020年的山寨，在BTC产量减半之后，这一次迫不及待就开始了加速上冲。等到了2021年上半年，随着BTC冲上第一个小牛顶，山寨总市值也达到了局部高位。而后在年中“519”暴力回调中，也剧烈向下波动。在2021年底随着BTC冲第二个小牛顶，山寨也又开启了第二春。 By the first half of 2021 & #xff0c; as BTC hit the first calf & #xff0c; as the total market value of the fortress reached a local high. Then, in the middle of the year, “519” violent echoes & #xff0c; it also fluctuated sharply. By the end of 2021, BTC hit the second calf #xff0c; and the second spring started with BTC. 由此，我们可以观察到： From this xff0c; we can see xff1a; 首先，山寨季的爆发紧密依赖于BTC的爆发节奏。BTC先慢后快，山寨季就先抑后扬，比如2017。BTC急冲急落、再冲再落，山寨季就也急冲回调，再冲再回调。 First xff0c; the outbreak of the fortress season is closely dependent on the BTC’s outbreak rhythm. BTC slows down xff0c; BTC slows down xff0c; e.g. 2017. BTC rushes to xff0c. BTC rushes back to xff0c. 这很好的印证了教链多次说过的，“只有比特币才有能力发动一场牛市”（温习教链2023.1.30文章《比特币天天向上》）。 This is a good testimony to what the church chain has said many times: xff0c; BTC减产是牛市的原因（内因）。牛市又是山寨季的原因。 The BTC’s decline is the cause of the cattle market & #xff08; internal causes & #xff09; 可以说，任何论证某某山寨将要造就牛市，无论是2017年讲是ICO造就了牛市，还是2021年讲是DeFi和新公链造就了牛市，抑或是2024-2025年讲RWA、DePIN或者什么东西会造就牛市，种种说辞，无一例外，要么是纯粹的不懂装懂，要么就是心知肚明的嘴上忽悠。简称“非蠢即坏”。 It can be said xff0c; any argument that a castle is about to build a cow market xff0c; whether ICO created a cow market xff0c in 2017; DeFi and the new public chain created a cow city xff0c in 2021; or RWA, DePIN or something created a cow market xff0c in 2024-2025; various rhetoric xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; or simply not understanding xff0c; or knowing the mouth of the mother. 其次，在减半之后，山寨无论是向下还是向上，回调的准备时间都只有一个不长的窗口期。想在2024年寻找alpha（金融术语：即相对于基准收益率beta之上的超额收益率）的投资者，并不会有太多的时间去仔细遴选，慢慢建仓。 Second & #xff0c; after halving & #xff0c; caves down and up & #xff0c; return preparation time is only a short window period. Looking for alpha（ in 2024; financial terminology & #xff1a; i.e. the excess yield above the base yield beta & #xff09; investors & #xff0c; there will not be much time to carefully select #xff0c; slowly stubble. 就像教链在2020年，牛市爆发前，当Uniswap发币开盘冲高8刀又回落至2刀以下后，开启了建仓（参阅教链2020.11.7文章《Uniswap(UNI)的估值分析和定投计划》）。但是，由于牛市过快启动，加仓成本被迅速拉高。穿越牛熊，来到今天，12刀的UNI，仓位仅仅是微微盈利罢了，远未跑赢BTC。（关于UNI投资的复盘，有兴趣的朋友可以读一读教链的总结，分别是2024.3.8文章《UNI(Uniswap)投资心得》，2024.2.26文章《Uniswap(UNI)二期实战复盘：真金白银的经验教训》，2021.3.9文章《Uniswap(UNI)实盘回顾：站上30刀，跻身市值前10，大幅跑赢比特币》） #xff08; see chain 2020.11.7 article Uniswap(UNI) xff0c; xff08; see chain 2020.11.7 article 不过，教链对于这次“寻找alpha”的实验，心态是平淡的。2021年1月1日心知肚明的教链就写下文章《为什么你的投资跑不赢比特币？》。事实上，教链的先验推理，也被一些实证研究所证实，在2024.1.4教链内参《大部分热门板块跑不赢BTC》中已有所介绍。 However, xff0c; the church chain is flat for this “search for alpha” experiment xff0c; the mentality is flat. xff0c; in fact xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; also confirmed by some empirical research institutes xff0c; ; xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; xff0c; href=http://blog.csdn.net/blockcoach/article/details/"rel=noflow>. 在加密行业，beta策略就是持有BTC不动，1 BTC = 1 BTC。alpha策略则能产生相比持有BTC不动之上的超额收益，也就是跑赢BTC的部分。 In the encryption industry & #xff0c; the Beta strategy is to hold BTC in motion & #xff0c; 1 BTC & #61; 1 BTC. The alpha strategy yields an excess gain over holding BTC in motion & #xff0c; that is, to win BTC. BTC就是金标准。Bitcoin is the new gold standard. Bitcoin is the new gold standard. 因此，alpha超额收益意味着，换回BTC能够使得你手上的BTC绝对数量增加。 So xff0c; alpha excess gains means xff0c; swapping BTC will enable an absolute increase in the number of BTCs in your hands. 无论从先验理论，还是教链亲自穿越牛熊的实验验证，都证明了一个铁打的道理：持有山寨一定要在牛市抛售，把alpha超额收益落实为实打实的BTC现货。最佳时机就是山寨大幅跑赢BTC的时候。 Whether from the a priori theory & #xff0c; or the chain's own experiment to cross the cow bear & #xff0c; it proves the logic of a barley & #xff1a; possession of a fortress must be sold in the cow market & #xff0c; putting alpha's excess gain into a real BTC spot. The best time is when the mountain fortress wins BTC. 至少，要把alpha超额收益的部分减持，换回BTC。 At least xff0c; to reduce alpha excess gains by xff0c; to replace BTC. 从这个意义上讲，持有山寨相当于一种软性的杠杆。用杠杆的思维和视角去审视一个山寨币，可能会有全新的认识和透彻的理解。 In this sense xff0c; holding a fortress is a soft lever. Leveraging ideas and perspectives to look at a mountain coin xff0c; there may be new insights and a thorough understanding. 抛弃法币本位的收益率思维和目标吧，什么10倍、100倍之类的。换成BTC本位，就问你的山寨一个牛市能不能跑出5倍的alpha？ Forget the French-denominated rate of return thinking and goals #xff0c; what 10 times, 100 times what. Change to BTC position #xff0c; ask if you can run five times the alpha？ in a bovine. 即，把现在价值1个BTC的山寨，变成实打实5个现货BTC。 i.e. #xff0c; transforms the present value of a BTC into five live BTCs. 能？那可就太酷啦！ Can #xff1f; that's cool #xff01; 不能？那还是老老实实地囤BTC吧。 I can't #xff1f; that's a good way to hoard BTC. 号外：教链内参3.27《内参：机构投资者BTC配置比例拟由1%升至3%》 * * * 延伸阅读更多刘教链精彩文章： 【攻略】币圈破产指南?2019.6.15 币圈破产指南（视频版）?2023.4.5 如果你在2010年拥有5000个比特币?2024.3.24 你没有错过比特币，更不会错过山寨币 —— 十年之约＃18 (ROI 99%)?2024.3.1 内参：惊奇！黄金与山寨齐飞！有何玄机？?2024.3.2 突然：山寨若狂蜂！2024.3.2 山寨币之路不通往比特币?2023.12.19 内参：山寨遭遇戴维斯双杀，仓位再平衡策略再思考?2023.10.27 内参：为何山寨币难以长持？?2023.6.24 山寨币即将到来的失败（以及你可以做什么来加速它）?2022.9.23 山寨币终将失败?2022.9.16 大饼之外皆山寨?2022.5.29 山寨币：致命的诱惑?2020.12.9 又是一年312?2024.3.12 (公众号：刘教链。知识星球：公众号回复“星球”) (Public & #xff1a; Liu Congregation. Knowledge planet & #xff1a; Public #responsible Planet) (免责声明：本文内容均不构成任何投资建议。加密货币为极高风险品种，有随时归零的风险，请谨慎参与，自我负责。) (Exemption statement xff1a; nothing in this paper constitutes an investment recommendation. Encrypted currency is a very high risk variety xff0c; there is a risk of zero at any time xff0c; be careful to participate xff0c; be self-responsible. 喜欢本文就请点亮在看、点赞、转发支持哦 👇👇👇
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