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在全世界的注视下,世界第二大虚拟货币以太坊(ETH)本月正式从PoW转为PoS机制,完成了业界革命的“The Merge”合并升级。
The merger of the “The Merge” of the industry revolution was completed this month with the official conversion of the world's second largest virtual currency from the PoW to the PoS mechanism in the eyes of the world.
以太坊合并完成之前,大量持有以太坊的投资者就已经开始抛售,以太坊单币价格一路走低,从本周的高点1777美元,到合并时的1650美元左右,最终下跌至当前的1333美元,顺便还把老对手比特币也拖下水,目前比特币再次跌破19000美元关口。
Prior to the completion of the Etherm merger, a large number of investors holding the Etherms had begun to dump, and the price of the Taiteng single currency had gone down from a high of $1777 this week to about $1650 at the time of the merger, and had eventually fallen to the current $1333 and, by the same token, tow the old rival Bitcoin, which had now fallen back to $19,000.
这是区块链诞生以来,史无前例的一次升级,直接将之前的玩法全部推翻,宣告了曾经利用GPU(显卡)挖矿时代的全面终结,近1亿币圈玩家被影响。大量专职挖矿的矿工们,要开始考虑未来的何去何从。
This is an unprecedented upgrade since the birth of the block chain, which directly overthrew all previous games, declared a complete end to the era of mining using the GPU, affecting nearly 100 million ring players. A large number of miners, dedicated to mining, have to start thinking about where to go in the future.
从2008年开始的挖矿暴富梦,进入了落幕倒计时。
The mining nightmare, which began in 2008, has reached the end of the countdown.
疯狂的挖矿生意
所谓挖矿,并不是传统的煤矿、金矿等体力劳动,而是币圈的行话。
The so-called mining is not a manual labour, such as traditional coal or gold mines, but a word for currency circles.
比特币的发明者中本聪在创建比特币之时,开发了PoW工作量证明机制,鼓励全球所有币圈玩家,用自己的电脑下载软件,通过特定的算法去解答非常难的数学题,谁先解答成功谁就能获得这个区块的比特币奖励。
At the time of the creation of Bitcoin, Benz of Bitcoin’s inventor had developed the PoW Workload Certification Mechanism, which encouraged all currency circle players around the world to download software using their own computers, solve very difficult math questions through specific algorithms, and whoever succeeds first gets the Bitcoin reward for the block.
在PoW机制下,投入算力的大小,也就是硬件性能的强度,就成为了获得虚拟币奖励的关键。于是乎,通过PoW机制获取加密货币的过程被叫作“挖矿”,而操纵电脑的币圈玩家被叫作“矿工”,挖矿的计算机设备被叫作“矿机”。
Under the PoW mechanism, the amount of numeracy invested, i.e. the strength of hardware performance, becomes the key to a virtual currency reward. So, the process of obtaining encrypted money through the PoW mechanism is called “mining”, while the currency-circle players who manipulate computers are called “miners” and the computer equipment used to dig mines is called “miners”.
在2008-2012年的早期挖矿,纯粹是以个人副业为主,买上一张或多张高级显卡组装矿机就能挖矿造富。然而到了2012年之后,随着矿工数量愈发增加,比特币价格持续上涨,对硬件性能要求与日俱增,“挖矿”逐渐走向了职业化、工厂化。
In the early years of 2008-2012, mining was based solely on a side business, with the purchase of one or more high-level card-assembly machines to enrich the mine. After 2012, however, as the number of miners increased, Bitcoin prices continued to rise, hardware performance requirements increased, and “mining” gradually moved towards professionalization and factoryization.
光大证券报告显示:从2020年开始,挖矿行业每年有望新增收入约180亿美金。高额的利润吸引着无数渴望暴富的人参与到挖矿行业中。据剑桥大学新兴金融中心(CCAF)2021年发布的一项数据显示:中国矿工的挖矿算力占到全球总挖矿算力的65.08%。
High profits attract countless people who want to be rich to the mining industry. According to data released by the Cambridge University’s Emerging Financial Center (CCAF) in 2021, Chinese miners account for 65.08% of total global mining capacity.
大量业余挖矿的币圈玩家,开始辞掉工作,搬到电力资源充沛且便宜的省份,例如火电资源充足的新疆、内蒙古和水电资源充足的四川、云南。一家又一家的矿场在城市边缘建立,没日没夜运转着几百上千台矿机设备。
A large number of amateur-digging coin-coopers began to quit their jobs and move to provinces with abundant and cheap electricity, such as Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Sichuan and Yunnan, with abundant hydropower resources. Another mine was built on the edge of the city, running hundreds of mine equipment day and night.
不但矿工开始内卷,工具也开始不断升级,更加专业的矿机设备开始出现。
Not only did the miners start to insider rolls, but the tools also began to be upgraded and more specialized mine machine equipment began to emerge.
从刚开始的CPU挖矿开始,因算力过低,逐渐转型到GPU显卡挖矿,紧接着又开发出Application Specific Integrated Circuit专门为某种特定用途设计的电子电路 ( 芯片 ),也就是俗称的ASIC矿机,为挖矿而生,除此之外无任何其他功能和作用。
Starting with the start of the CPU mining, the gradual transition to GPU card mining due to too low arithmetic, followed by the development of an electronic circuit (chips) specifically designed for a specific use by the application Specialized Circuit, commonly known as the ASIC miner, which was produced for mining purposes, without any other function or function.
虚拟货币越来越难以计算,必须要购买计算力更强大的矿机设备,300台以下的矿机只能算是小型矿场。同时,日常矿机的用电量加上设备的维护,更是一笔天文数字。
Virtual currency is becoming increasingly difficult to calculate, and there is a need to purchase more calculator-powered mine equipment, with less than 300 machines being considered small-scale mines. At the same time, the amount of electricity used by daily miners, coupled with the maintenance of equipment, is an astronomical figure.
虚拟货币“挖矿”需要大量的电力支撑,能源消耗和碳排放量高到离谱。根据新华社的统计,一些“矿场”一天就耗电上百万度;西部某省一家“矿场”一个月能“吃掉”4500万度电;西南某地的“矿场”一年耗电量相当于三个市一年耗电总量。
Virtual money “mining” requires a lot of power support, energy consumption and carbon emissions. According to Xinhua, some “mines” consume millions of degrees of electricity a day; one “mine” in a western province “eats” 45 million degrees of electricity a month; and one “mine” in a south-west part of the country consumes the equivalent of one year of electricity consumption in three cities.
而内蒙古自治区今年4月底已关停清退35家大型挖矿企业,预计这35家企业年用电合计高达52亿度,折合超160万吨标准煤。
At the end of April this year, the Autonomous Region of Inner Mongolia closed down 35 large mining enterprises, which are expected to consume up to 5.2 billion degrees per year, or more than 1.6 million tons of standard coal.
然而以太坊掀起业界改革浪潮,将PoW转型到PoS机制,曾经的挖矿暴富就逐渐开始走向终结,矿工注定将成为时代的眼泪。
However, with the advent of a wave of industrial reform in Etheria, which transformed PoW into a PoS mechanism, the former mining boom began to come to an end, and the miners were destined to become tears of the times.
显卡价格崩盘
这次以太坊升级转型的PoS机制,是完全不同运算逻辑,简单来说就是不再依赖于显卡, 而是凭借“币龄”和持有货币的数量来充当“算力”,从而杜绝能源高消耗的情况。
The PoS mechanism, which was upgraded and transformed by Taiwan, is completely different from the logic of calculation, simply because it no longer relies on visible cards, but rather uses “currency age” and the amount of money held as “calculus” to eliminate high energy consumption.
这样一来,影响最大的就是矿工们手头里囤积的显卡。
In this way, the greatest impact is the accumulation of visible cards in the hands of miners.
显卡作为挖矿的第一生产力工具,价格也在狂热的挖矿浪潮中一度疯涨。2021年底,英伟达发布RTX 30系显卡,原本是游戏玩家刚需的显卡设备,还没等玩家下单,矿工们就开始溢价疯抢,把市面上的RTX 30系显卡全部买下,再无一例外地投入到挖矿行列当中。
As the first productive tool for mining, the price also rose sharply in a feverish wave of mining. At the end of 2021, British Weida released a RTX 30 card, which was needed by game players, before waiting for the player to pay the bill, the miners started to surrogate, buying all of the market's RTX 30 cards and investing them in mining without exception.
原本定位中端的RTX 3060Ti显卡,官方定价2999元,在最高峰时价格暴涨近乎破万,其它高端卡更不用说了,都是溢价三倍起步。最新的显卡买不到,矿工又盯上了“过时”的设备,上一代的RTX 20系显卡都迎来不同程度的疯涨。
The original RTX 3060 Ti card at the center of the location, the official price of $2999, was at its peak, and the other high-end cards, let alone the premium, were three times the price. The latest card could not be bought, the miners were looking at “outmoded” equipment, and the previous generation of RTX 20 were at a different height.
甚至一些使用两三年的RTX 10系显卡,都能在二手市场以原价卖出,可见挖矿浪潮对显卡的影响。
Even the use of two or three years'RTX 10 cards, which can be sold at the original price in the second-hand market, can be seen in the impact of the mining wave on the cards.
这之间的逻辑也不难理解,旷工们高价、溢价购买显卡,纯粹是他们挖矿获得虚拟币收益大于溢价。据2021年某矿工在社交平台的爆料:8张3060显卡成本在六万元左右,火力全开挖矿一天能赚三百多块(去掉电费),差不多半年能收回设备费用,半年后就是纯利润。并且,显卡价格高涨,不挖了可以把显卡卖掉,同样可以收回部分资金。
There is no difficulty in understanding the logic of the high price, premium, and purchase of a card by the absentee. According to the 2021 blast by a miner on a social platform, eight 3060 cards cost about $60,000, and the full power of fire will make more than three hundred dollars a day, and the equipment will be recovered for almost six months, and it will be a net profit after six months.
这就形成一个恶性循环,只要有比特币和以太坊等虚拟货币的存在,显卡永远是供不应求。
This creates a vicious circle in which visible cards will never be needed, as long as virtual currencies such as Bitcoin and Etheria exist.
除了虚拟货币企业以外,背后的最大赢家莫过于英伟达。研究机构Wedbush Securities数据显示:在此前挖矿大热的6个季度里,英伟达平均每个季度从矿卡中获得约8亿美元收入,6个季度下来至少48亿美元,约合人民币330亿元。
With the exception of virtual money companies, the biggest winner is Weida. Researcher Wedbush Securities shows that, over the past six quarters of the mining boom, Weyda received an average of about $800 million per quarter from the mine card, and at least $4.8 billion by six quarters, or about $33 billion.
靠挖矿赚了那么多钱,当矿难发生时,英伟达自然要承受“反噬”。
With so much money made from mining, it was natural for Yvetteta to bear the “reburst” when the mine was in trouble.
英伟达2022年Q2季度财报
♪Em ♪ 2022 Q2 Q2 ♪/em ♪
英伟达2022年Q2季度财报显示:英伟达二季度营收入为67亿美元,环比跌幅19%;净利润6.56亿美元,较去年同期的23.74亿美元暴跌72%;英伟达营收增速创下近年来新低,利润端各项数据全线下挫,游戏业务表现惨淡;今年以来英伟达股价累计已下跌超40%。
In the 2022 Q2 quarterly British Weida report, revenue from Camp 2 was $6.7 billion, a 19 per cent decline in the ring; net profit was $656 million, a 72 per cent drop from the previous year's $2.374 billion; the profit-side data fell across the line in recent years, and the game business performed poorly; and the stock price of British Weida has fallen by more than 40 per cent cumulatively since this year.
目前英伟达为了重振股市,发布了RTX 40系显卡,但比起上一代RTX 30系显卡一问世就被疯抢、翻倍溢价,RTX 40系显卡有些不温不火,价格也回落至正常零售价格。
At present, in an attempt to revive the stock market, Yvesta has released a RTX 40 card, but it has been robbed and doubled since the birth of the previous generation of RTX 30 card, which has been somewhat tempered and has fallen to normal retail prices.
至此,持续6个季度的显卡浪潮终于划上了休止符。
As a result, the six-quarter wave of card surges finally reached a break.
能源、能源还是能源
不论是席卷无数“矿工”的风暴,还是股价下跌超40%的英伟达,虚拟货币直接影响了全世界超一亿人的命运。那为什么以太坊要冒着如此大的风险,也要急于求变?答案就是,虚拟货币的时间也不多了。
Whether it is a storm swept by numerous “miners” or a stock price drop of more than 40%, virtual currency has a direct impact on the fate of more than 100 million people around the world. Then why is it too risky for Ether to be in a hurry to change?
上文提到,如果想“开采”出加密货币 ,就需要“矿工”借助高性能显卡的大算力来进行日夜不停的计算,所需要的电力就是个天文数字。
As mentioned above, if an encoded currency is to be “exploited”, it will be necessary for a “miner” to use the power of a high-performance card for round-the-clock computing, and the electricity required is an astronomical number.
根据以太坊官方透露:如果继续采用PoW机制挖矿,每个以太坊币的获取,所耗费的电量相当于一个家庭2.8天消耗的各种能量;而比特币则更高,需要消耗一个家庭高达38天的能量。
According to Etheria official sources, if the PoW mechanism continues to be used for mining, the amount of electricity spent on each of these items is equivalent to the amount of energy consumed by a household for 2.8 days, while Bitcoin is higher, requiring the consumption of up to 38 days of energy by a household.
欧洲央行数据显示:比特币每年挖矿所消耗的用电量,相当于西班牙、奥地利等国的能源消耗。而欧洲数年在减少碳排放上做出的努力,都被比特币+以太坊带来的碳消耗所抵消。欧洲呼吁禁止挖矿的声量,一直沸沸扬扬。
European Central Bank data show that Bitcoin consumes the same amount of energy as Spain, Austria, and other countries every year. Europe’s efforts to reduce carbon emissions over the years have been offset by the consumption of carbon from Bitcoin + the tavern.
而将PoW机制切换成PoS机制的以太坊,据官方说法,在能源效率方面提高了约2000倍,能节约99.95%的总能源使用量。
In contrast, the Etherm, which replaced the PoW mechanism with the PoS mechanism, officially increased energy efficiency by about 2,000 times, saving 99.95 per cent of total energy use.
目前,比特币的市值超4000亿美元,是以太币2000多亿美元的两倍。两者之间的竞争从未止歇。
At present, the market value of Bitcoin is over $400 billion, twice the value of over $200 billion. Competition between the two has never stopped.
将PoW转为PoS机制,将是虚拟货币的必选项。比起老对手比特币,以太坊已经抢先一步完成转型,欧洲等国对其“浪费能源”的不满,都将由比特币承担。这无疑为颠覆比特币的主导地位带来一线希望。
Converting the PoW to a PoS mechanism would be a necessary option for virtual currency. Compared to the old rival Bitcoin, the Taipan has already taken a step ahead in its transformation, and European countries and others will take on their “wasted energy” as well.
但是赚钱的资本巨头已经酒足饭饱,只留下丢了饭碗的矿工独自承受时代终结的痛苦。
But the capital giants who make money are already full of wine and food, leaving the miners who lost their jobs alone to bear the pain of the end of the era.
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