比特币昨天晚上最高冲到19000美元，连央视都按捺不住发了一篇文章，强调比特币的风险，我们今天聊聊。
Bitcoin hit a maximum of $19,000 last night, and even the general eye failed to send an article highlighting the risks of bitcoin, which we are talking about today.
先给你们看一个图，比特币从2010年7月8号开始有相对权威的交易数据，一直延续到现在。
Let me first show you a chart of the relative authority of Bitcoin's transactions since July 8, 2010, which continues to this day.
?上市初期，比特币的成交价是9美分，也就是0.09美元，换算成人民币大约5毛钱，最低的时候曾经到过5美分。
entered the market at an exchange of 9 cents in Bitcoin, or 0.09 US$ , converted into about 50 cents in RMB, which was five cents at the lowest.
当初以这个价格卖比特币的兄弟，你赢了。
The brother who sold Bitcoin at that price, you won.
之后几年比特币交易其实非常低迷，参与买卖的可能只是技术发烧友和极其激进的赌徒型资金。
Bitcoin transactions in the following years were actually very low, and it was possible to be involved only in technology-related fever and highly aggressive gambler-type funds.
2013年3月-2013年9月涨了一波，价格猛窜到1000美元附近。
March 2013-September 2013 waved and prices jumped near $1,000.
当时很多人已经目瞪狗呆，认为买比特币的人已经疯了。
At that time, many people had been staring at it and thought that the buyers of Bitcoin had gone mad.
大家觉得比特币虽然总量固定，只有2100万个，但和Q币没什么区别，又不能买QQ秀，能有什么卵用。
It was felt that even though the amount of bitcoins was fixed at 21 million, it was no different from the amount of Queens, and it was impossible to buy a QQ Show.
然后，比特币就跌了一波，大家笑着说看吧我就说了没什么卵用。
And then, bitcoin fell a wave, and everybody laughed and said it didn't work.
直到去年年底，比特币才慢慢回到1000美元附近。
It was not until the end of last year that Bitcoin slowly returned to the vicinity of $1,000.
让人彻底懵逼的时刻正式到来。
The moment has officially come to be a complete shock.
从今年年初开始，一年时间比特币从1000美元涨到最高19000美元。
Starting at the beginning of this year, bitcoin rose from $1,000 to a maximum of $19,000 a year.
截止到昨天收盘，比特币的价格是16732美元，换算成人民币，相当于11万。
As of yesterday, the price of Bitcoin was US$ 16732, converted into RMB 110,000.
在我们老家，房子的均价大约每平米1.2万，10个比特币，能买一套大三居。
> In our home, the average price of the house is about 12,000 per square metre, 10 bitcoins, so we can buy a threesome.
你可能没什么感觉，而且觉得自己拿着一个U盘到售楼处说这里有10个比特币我要一套房，非得让开发商打出来不可。
You probably don't feel much, and you feel like you're taking a flash drive to the storehouse and saying that there's 10 bitcoins here and I need a house, and you have to let the developers out.
我再告诉你一组数据。
I'll give you another set of data.
从2010年7月8号到现在：
From 8 July 2010 to the present:
沪深300指数涨了53.03%，年化收益率7.01%；
The depth 300 index rose by 53.03 per cent, with an annualized return of 7.01 per cent;
整个A股市场涨幅最大的股票华夏幸福，涨了24.4倍，年化收益率325%；
The largest stock increase in the stock market as a whole, summer summer Happiness, was 24.4 times higher, with an annualized return of 325 per cent;
比特币涨了185911倍，年化收益率2478800%；
Bitcoin increased 185911 times, with an annualized rate of return of 2478,800 per cent;
我帮你读出来：比特币过去7年的年化收益率是百分之二百四十七万百千八百。
> I read you: Bitcoin's annualized rate of return over the past seven years is 2,477,800.
抢银行也没这么快。。。
The bank robbery wasn't that fast.
比特币涨成这样的原因很多，其中最主要的原因有两个：
There are many reasons for this increase in bitcoin, the two most important of which are:
1、总量固定
1 with a fixed volume
你可以这么理解，班主任扔出一套题库，然后跟班上的同学说，里边一共有2100万道题，谁解开一道题，就奖给谁一个比特币。
You can understand that, and the director throws out a collection of questions, and then says to his classmates, "There are 21 million questions in there, and whoever solves one will be awarded a bitcoin."
如果哪天所有的题都被解开，比特币也就全部奖励完，再也不会有新的。
If all the questions were solved one day, the entire bitcoin would be rewarded and there would be no new ones.
2、无法篡改
b>2 and cannot be tampered with
比特币使用区块链技术，是一种去中心化的数据记录方式，极大降低了数据被篡改的风险。
Bitcoin uses block chain technology as a decentralised way of recording data, significantly reducing the risk of data being tampered with.
传统的数据记录方式是这样：
The traditional way of recording data is as follows:
小月同学解开了一道题，班主任在自己的小本子上记下来，这个比特币归小月了。
Shizuki solved a question, and the teacher wrote it down on his own little book, and this bitcoin is a month old.
小明同学解不开题，但也想要比特币，于是偷偷在班主任的小本子上把月字前边加了个日，这个比特币就归小明了。
Ming couldn't solve the problem, but also wanted Bitcoin, so he secretly added the first word to the master's book for a day, and this bitcoin became Ming's.
区块链技术是这样：
The block chain technology is as follows:
小月同学解开了一道题，全班所有同学都在自己的小本子记下来，这个比特币归小月了。
Shizuki solved a question, and all the students in the class wrote it down in their little book, and this bitcoin is a month old.
这时候小明就没办法了，总不能把全班所有同学的小本子都改了吧。
At that point Ming can't change all the kids' books in the class.
?总量固定、无法篡改，比特币因为这两个属性成为了有史以来最特殊的电子货币。
? The volume is fixed and cannot be tampered with, and Bitcoin has become the most special electronic currency in history because of these two attributes.
尤其是无法篡改背后隐含的区块链技术，对未来信息存储有重大意义。
In particular, the inability to tamper with the underlying block chain technology has significant implications for the storage of future information.
举个例子，传统的数据记录类似微博转发，只要被转发的原始微博删了，所有转发就全都看不到内容了，区块链技术类似于把微博复制下来单独发，你删了原始微博也没用。
For example, traditional data records are similar to tweets, all of which are missing as long as the original tweets transmitted are deleted, block chain technology is similar to copying the tweets separately, and it is useless to delete the original tweets.
?国内有些公司已经开始研发区块链技术，并且取得了一些商业应用前景。
Some companies in the country have started to develop block chain technologies and have acquired some commercial applications.
可以这么理解，短时间内，A股市场炒比特币，就是变相炒区块链概念。
It's understood that, in a short time, the A-share market is the concept of a disguised block chain.
?比特币现在的有点像明末的袁崇焕，喜欢的说他是民族英雄，讨厌的说他是亡国罪人。
♪ Bitcoin's kind of like the last Yuan ♪ ♪ Likes to say he's a national hero, hate to say he's a sinner. ♪
?但不管世人如何评价，袁崇焕依然是袁崇焕，比特币依然是比特币。
‘But whatever the world will judge, Yuan Chong-hwan will remain Yuan, and Bitcoin will remain Bitcoin.’
目前德国已经认可比特币的合法地位，而且全球很多企业也开通了比特币支付功能，问题来了，它到底能不能当成货币呢？
Now that Germany has accepted the legal status of Bitcoin, and that a large number of companies around the world have introduced the Bitcoin payment function, the question arises whether it can be considered a currency.
货币之所以是货币，有两个原因：标准化、有背书。
标准化，是指货币有标准的规格和形式，这样才能自由流通，比如原始社会以物换物，你家的牛换我家的马，牛和马就不是货币，因为没有标准化的定义。
Standardization refers to the existence of standard specifications and forms of money that allow for free circulation, such as the exchange of goods in the original society, the exchange of cattle for horses in your home, and the non-monetaryization of cattle and horses, since there is no standardized definition.
有背书，说白了就是背后有大哥撑腰，古代直接用金银做货币，背书就是金银本身，现在各国超发货币，没那么金银背书，政府成了最大的背书工具。
There are endorsements, which are backed by a big brother, the ancient currency of gold and silver, the gold and silver itself, the currency of each country, not so much gold and silver, and the government is the biggest endorsement tool.
比如人民币，红的100块，绿的50快、黄的20块、蓝的10块，有统一标准，你在卫生纸上画一个肯定不行，而且有政府做背书，大家都认。
For example, the yuan, the red 100, the green 50, the yellow 20, the blue 10, there's a uniform standard, you can't draw one on a toilet paper, and there's a government endorsement, everybody says.
再看比特币，标准化没问题，电子货币全是标准产品。
And look at bitcoin, standardization is no problem, e-money is all standard products.
有背书更没问题，传统货币由某个国家政府背书，比特币由于它无法篡改的特点，相当于全球互联网帮它背书。
With endorsements, the traditional currency is endorsed by a national Government, and Bitcoin, because of its immutable character, is equivalent to a global Internet endorsement.
举个例子，哪天鑫哥被美帝消灭了，朝元很可能会变成废纸，但全球只要还有一个持有比特币的互联网终端存在，比特币就不会消失。
By way of example, one day he was wiped out by the American Emperor, the dynasty was likely to turn into scrap paper, but the world would not disappear as long as there was an Internet terminal with Bitcoin.
道理这么简单，为什么全球绝大部分国家还是不承认它的货币地位呢？
Why is it that the vast majority of countries around the world still do not recognize their monetary position?
因为，没人能掌控它的定价权。
男人都喜欢春花阁的小翠，但没人愿意娶回家，因为掌控不了。
Men like the little jade in the spring, but no one wants to marry home because they can't control it.
?比特币未来还能不能涨？
♪ Is Bitcoin ever gonna rise in the future? ♪
我持乐观态度，还是因为它的天然属性：总量固定，也就是稀缺。
I am optimistic, or because of its natural attributes: the volume is fixed, that is, the scarcity.
经济学有一个理论，决定任何东西价格的根本因素，不是价值，而是稀缺。
举个例子，空气有价值，但没有价格，因为它不稀缺，满地都是，一幅名画，能有什么价值，但价格昂贵，同样因为稀缺。
For example, air is valuable, but there is no price, because it is not scarce, it is full of a famous painting, but it is expensive, also because it is scarce.
很多人想不明白比特币有什么价值，其实大多数买比特币的人也想不明白，但因为稀缺，大家总觉得它应该值这个价。
Many people wonder what bitcoin is worth, and most people who buy bitcoin don't, but because it's scarce, it's always thought it should be worth it.
这种稀缺性的预期不改变，比特币就还会涨。
The expectation of such scarcity will not change, and bitcoin will rise.
也许几百年后看现在，比特币就是互联网时代伟大的艺术品，和达芬奇、毕加索这些大师的作品一样。
Maybe hundreds of years later, bitcoin is the great art of the Internet age, just like da Vinci and Picasso.
涨归涨，普通人最好别参与。
It would be better for ordinary people not to be involved.
一来比特币涨跌幅度太大，你心脏受不了；
It's a bitcoin up and down. Your heart can't stand it.
二来它现在终归是个金融品种，而对于不熟悉的金融品种，最好别碰。
Second, it is now a financial variety, and it is better not to touch that which is not familiar with it.
因为不懂股票而炒股已经吃了大亏，就别再吃个更大的亏了。
The stock market has already suffered a great deal because of lack of knowledge of the stock market, so let's not lose any more.
我们国家不承认比特币的货币地位，这点可以理解，而且严控比特币交易，这点我非常赞同。
> our country does not recognize the currency status of bitcoin, which is understandable, and I very much agree with strict control over bitcoin transactions.
这是对不明真相的围观群众最好的保护。
This is the best way to protect the public from the unknown.
当然，管理层也有自己的想法，严控比特币交易有几个原因：
Of course, the management has its own ideas, and there are several reasons why the Bitcoin deal is strictly controlled:
1、防洗钱
1 , prevention of money-laundering
老李贪污5000万，总怕这个钱被查到，可以跟境外的孙富贵商量好，买450个比特币，这5000万转移到了孙富贵手里，就变成合法的了。
Li embezzled 50 million dollars, and was afraid that the money would be found and could be negotiated with Sun Fung and buy 450 bitcoins from abroad, and the 50 million would be legalized when they were transferred to Sun Fukuk.
2、资金外流
2 , financial outflows
现在外汇管制很严，老李想把钱转成美元，但短时间转不了太多，于是他找到了境外的孙富贵……
Now the exchange controls are tight, Li wants to convert the money into dollars, but it won't be too much in a short time, so he finds Sun Fung-goe outside the country...
3、无法控制
3 , uncontrollable
今年比特币这波上涨行情，中国资本居功至伟，贡献了绝大部分买盘，当有巨量国内资本聚集的交易品种出现，而政府无法掌控的时候，管控交易是最有效的做法。
This year's surge in Bitcoin, China's capital has contributed the vast majority of its purchases, and it is the most effective way to regulate transactions when there is a variety of transactions with large domestic capital concentrations that the Government has no control over.
周五不讲股票，我详细普及了一遍比特币的知识，希望你们喜欢。
I'm not talking about stocks on Friday. I'm going to go over Bitcoin once and for all, and I hope you like it.
就酱！债见！?
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