在探讨比特币这一数字货币巨头的寿命时，一个核心问题总是备受关注：比特币究竟能挖多久?根据比特币创始人中本聪精心设计的协议，比特币的挖矿活动预计将在2140年左右达到终点。这一预设的终结点标志着比特币总量达到其上限——2100万个，不再有新的比特币通过挖矿过程被创造。
When looking at the lifetime of a bitcoin, one of the core issues is always of interest: how long can bitcoin be dug? According to a carefully designed agreement among Bitcoin’s founders, bitcoin mining is expected to reach its end in 2140. This preset end point marks a total of bitcoin & mdash; & mdash; 21 million, no new bitcoins were created through the mining process.
比特币的发行遵循一种独特的减半机制，每挖出210,000个区块，矿工获得的挖矿奖励就会减半。这一机制确保了比特币的发行速度逐渐下降，直至趋于零。比特币诞生之初，矿工成功挖出一个区块可获得50个比特币作为奖励。自2009年以来，这样的减半事件已经发生了三次，分别在2012年、2016年和最近的一次在2020年，目前的挖矿奖励已降低至6.25个比特币。
The distribution of Bitcoin followed a unique mechanism of halving the incentive to mine for every 210,000 blocks. This mechanism ensured that the rate of distribution of bitcoin was gradually declining until zero. At the beginning of Bitcoin, miners successfully dug up a block with 50 bitcoins as an incentive. Since 2009, three such halving events have taken place, with the current incentive to dig down to 6.25 bitcoins in 2012, 2016 and the most recent in 2020.
按照当前的减半节奏，大约每四年发生一次减半，最终挖矿奖励将无限趋近于零，但永远不会完全等于零。当挖矿奖励不足以覆盖挖矿成本时，矿工的收益将主要来源于交易费用，这是在比特币网络上进行交易时支付给矿工的费用。因此，尽管2140年之后理论上不再有新比特币产出，比特币网络仍将继续运作，支持交易和转账。
When mining incentives are not sufficient to cover the cost of mining, miners will derive their revenues mainly from transaction costs, which are paid to miners when trading on the Bitcoin network. Thus, despite the theoretical absence of new bitcoin output after 2140, the Bitcoin network will continue to operate and support transactions and transfers.
比特币的总供应量上限为2100万个，这一设计模仿了贵金属如黄金的稀缺性属性，意在赋予比特币持久的保值能力。与政府可以无限制增发的传统货币不同，比特币的供应严格受限，这有助于对抗通货膨胀，维持其作为价值存储手段的吸引力。
Bitcoin’s total supply cap is 21 million, a design that imitates the scarce properties of precious metals, such as gold, and is intended to give Bitcoin a lasting preservation capability. Unlike traditional currencies that the government can increase without limits, Bitcoin’s supply is severely limited, helping to counter inflation and maintain its attractiveness as a value-storage tool.
随着比特币接近其供应上限，市场对于这种数字货币的长期价值预测变得更加复杂。一方面，有限的供应可能加剧比特币的稀缺性，理论上支撑其价值上升。另一方面，随着挖矿奖励的减少，维持网络的经济激励结构将发生转变，对矿工群体和整个比特币生态系统的稳定性提出挑战。
As Bitcoin approaches its supply ceiling, market projections of the long-term value of this digital currency become more complex. On the one hand, limited supply may exacerbate the scarcity of bitcoin and theoretically support its value rise. On the other hand, as incentives for mining are reduced, the structure of economic incentives to sustain the network will shift, challenging the stability of the miner community and of the entire Bitcoin ecosystem.
总之，比特币预计将在2140年左右完成其所有的挖掘，这标志着一个时代的终结，同时也开启了比特币作为成熟、稀缺资产的新篇章。这一里程碑事件不仅对加密货币领域意义重大，也将深远影响全球金融体系对未来货币形式的认知与接纳。
In short, Bitcoin is expected to complete all of its excavations in about 2140, marking the end of an era, and opening a new chapter in Bitcoin as a mature and scarce asset. This milestone is important not only in the area of encryption, but will also have far-reaching implications for the global financial system’s perception and acceptance of future monetary forms.
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