重要提示:本文内容仅供信息参考,不构成任何投资建议。请读者理性看待。
Important reminder: This text is for information purposes only and does not constitute an investment proposal. Readers should be reasonable.
精彩不容错过!一文带你穿越时空,探寻比特币自2008年以来十年间的价格风云变幻。
Let's not lose sight of that! A piece of paper takes you through time and explores how the price of Bitcoin has changed over the past 10 years since 2008.
2008年11月1日(美国时间10月31日),中本聪发布了比特币开创性的白皮书——《比特币:一种点对点的电子现金系统》。自此,源自2008年金融危机的比特币,逐步从极客的小圈子迈向大众视野,开辟了继股票、债券、商品、房产之外全新的资产交易领域。更深远的意义在于,其背后的区块链技术和相关应用一旦与实体经济融合,将为我们揭示一幅前所未有的数字经济发展蓝图。尽管尚未普及,但毋庸置疑,比特币的诞生已成为21世纪最具震撼力的重大事件之一。适逢比特币诞生十周年,火星财经(ID:hxcj24h)特别策划了一系列深度报道,包括《比特币十年:变革已现与未来可期》、《比特币十年:激情燃烧的技术革新之路》、《十年激荡:比特币行情全景回顾,从0跃升至3000亿美元》、《前瞻视界:区块链将重塑的十大行业》、《链圈币圈群英谱:区块链世界的多元面孔》等文章,全面梳理比特币及其孕育的区块链所带来的深刻变化。
On November 1, 2008 (October 31, U.S. Time), China’s hearing published a seminal White Paper on Bitcoin – Bitcoin: An Electronic Cash System for Point-to-Points. Since then, the birth of Bitcoin, which originated from the 2008 financial crisis, has gradually moved from the elite to public view, opening up a whole new area of asset trading outside of stock, bonds, commodities, and real estate. More far-reaching is the fact that the technology and related applications behind it, once integrated with the real economy, will reveal an unprecedented blueprint for digital economic development. Although not universal, the birth of Bitcoin has undoubtedly been one of the most powerful events of the twenty-first century.
比特币于2008年11月1日正式发布,最初一年并未在市场上体现价值,更像是技术发烧友之间的玩物。直到2009年1月3日,中本聪在芬兰赫尔辛基的一个小型服务器挖出了首批50枚比特币,此后“挖矿”渐成风尚,但当时主流市场仍未充分认识到其价值。
Bitcoin was officially released on 1 November 2008 and did not represent its value in the market for the first year, more like a game between a friend with a technology fever. As of 3 January 2009, the first 50 bitcoins were discovered by a small server in Helsinki, Finland, after which the “mining” became popular, but its value was still not fully recognized in the mainstream market.
真正的转折出现在2010年5月21日,美国程序员Laszlo Hanyecz以1万个比特币换取了两个披萨,约为30美元,从此比特币的初始价值被锚定在0.3美分。
The real turn occurred on 21 May 2010, when the United States programmer Laszlo Hanyecz exchanged 10,000 bitcoins for two pizzas, about $30, from which the initial value of bitcoins was anchored at 0.3 cents.
价值显现后,挖矿热潮汹涌澎湃,Mt.Gox交易所应运而生,并在2010年7月引领比特币价格首次剧烈波动,五天内价格飙升10倍,由0.008美元升至0.08美元。公众对比特币的关注度日益高涨,衍生出诸如便携设备挖矿、期权合约及矿池等一系列创新产品。到了2010年11月,比特币市值突破100万美元,单价首次突破0.5美元,较初始价格上涨逾167倍。
The value showed, the boom in mining, the Mt. Gox exchange came into being, and led to the first sharp swing in Bitcoin prices in July 2010, with prices skyrocketing 10 times in five days, from US$0.008 to US$0.08. Public interest in Bitcoins has increased, giving rise to a range of innovative products, such as portable mining, options contracts, and ponds. By November 2010, Bitcoins had a market value of US$ 1 million, a unit price of US$ 0.5 for the first time, and an initial price increase of more than 167 times.
2011年2月,比特币价格首次与美元持平,标志着一个重要里程碑。紧接着,相继出现了比特币与英镑、巴西币、波兰币的兑换交易平台。
In February 2011, for the first time, the price of Bitcoin was equal to the dollar, marking an important milestone. This was followed by a platform for currency exchange with the pound sterling, the Brazilian currency, and the Polish currency.
随着《时代周刊》、《福布斯》等权威媒体报道,比特币知名度大增,投资者蜂拥而入。至2011年6月8日,比特币单价攀升至31.9美元的历史高点,相较于初始价格涨幅超过一万倍。
With authoritative media reports such as Times Weekly, Forbes, Bitcoin has grown in visibility, with investors rushing in. By 8 June 2011, Bitcoin had climbed to a historic high of $31.9, more than 10,000 times higher than its initial price.
然而好景不长,2011年8月,著名交易平台 Mt.Gox 遭遇“黑客事件”,超过7.8万枚比特币失踪,引发投资者对比特币安全性的广泛质疑。自此,比特币价格一路下滑,至2012年2月,单价跌破2美元,较前期高点跌幅竟达1395%。
In August 2011, however, Mt. Gox, a well-known trading platform, was hit by a hacking incident, with more than 78,000 bitcoins missing, raising widespread questions about investors’ security. Since then, Bitcoin prices have fallen all the way, with a single price falling by $2 as of February 2012, reaching a 1395% drop from the previous high.
然而随着公众对加密货币的认知加深,同年6月起,多个实体经济商家宣布接受比特币支付。至7月,比特币价格回升至8.77美元。与此同时,金融圈重量级人物纷纷看好数字货币前景,在下半年成立了比特币基金会;欧洲亦召开了首届比特币大会,比特币价格开始稳步回升。到2012年12月,比特币区块供应量首度进行减半调整,加上法国开设了世界上第一家比特币交易所,比特币价格重返高峰,触及13.69美元。
However, as public awareness of the encoded currency increased, several real economic firms announced that they would accept payment in bitcoin from June of the same year. By July, the price of bitcoin had risen back to $8.77.
2013年堪称比特币的快速发展之年。
The year 2013 is a fast-growing year for bitcoin.
今年3月,塞浦路斯爆发债务危机,政府试图通过冻结银行转账及向储户征税等方式应对,这一背景下,去中心化、超主权的比特币受到欧洲避险资金的追捧,价格在短短几日内从30多美元急升至265美元。
In the context of the debt crisis in Cyprus last March, in which the Government attempted to deal with it by freezing bank transfers and taxing depositors, decentralizing and ultra-sovereignive bitcoin was won by European hedge funds and prices rose sharply from more than $30 to $265 in just a few days.
这次价格飙升使全球开始关注比特币的重要性和实际价值。然而,短暂的狂热过后,市场回归理性,比特币价格回落至68美元。随后在2013年下半年,欧洲多个国家出台比特币相关政策,再度激发投资者热情。年底,比特币单价突破1147美元,历史上首次超越黄金价格。
The price hike brought global attention to the importance and real value of Bitcoin. After a brief period of fanaticism, however, the market returned to rationality and bitcoin prices fell to $68.
然而,2013年12月5日,中国人民银行等五部委联合发布《关于防范比特币风险的通知》,比特币自此进入了下行通道。
However, on 5 December 2013, five ministries, including the People's Bank of China, jointly issued a Notice on Protection against Bitcoin Risk, which has since entered the lower route.
经历了2013年的辉煌,2014年至2016年间比特币市场陷入了长期低迷。整体价格呈现稳中有降的趋势,主要原因是数字货币市场对外部干扰的敏感度降低,新入场投资者人数递减,发展空间受限。
After a remarkable performance in 2013, the Bitcoin market fell into a long-term depression between 2014 and 2016. Overall prices showed a steady downward trend, mainly because of the reduced sensitivity of the digital currency market to external interference, the declining number of new investors and the limited space for development.
2014年2月,曾风光一时的 Mt.Gox 交易平台宣告破产,比特币价格由600美元直线下滑至102美元,跌幅高达80%。直至2015年年初,比特币价格虽反弹至300美元,但在1月14日一度跌至170美元,两天内跌幅高达37%。之后12天内,比特币价格因 Coinbase 新一轮融资成功而反弹,再次站上300美元大关。
In February 2014, the one-time Mt.Gox trading platform went bankrupt, dropping bitcoin prices from $600 to $102, up to 80%. By early 2015, Bitcoin prices rebounded to $300, but fell to $170 on 14 January, reaching 37% in two days.
2016年,受益于比特币产量减半、英国脱欧、美国总统选举及亚洲市场的强劲表现,比特币价格开始反弹并持续上升态势。至12月底,比特币单价重回1000美元上方。
By the end of December, Bitcoin’s unit price was back above $1,000.
2017年是比特币书写历史的一年,比特币价格从年初的970美元一路狂飙至12月底的近2万美元,全年涨幅惊人地达到了1700%。年内日交易最高点达556.59亿美元,甚至超过了纽约股票交易所当年的日均交易额。
The year 2017 was one of Bitcoin’s writing history, with Bitcoin prices soaring from $970 at the beginning of the year to nearly $20,000 at the end of December, a staggering 1700 per cent increase throughout the year. The trading peak of the year reached $55,659 billion, even exceeding the average daily turnover of the New York Stock Exchange for the year.
今年1月至5月,比特币价格温和上涨,至5月25日突破2730美元,吸引更广泛的投资群体。不过,在6月和7月间,比特币价格一度受比特币分叉消息影响,导致市场出现恐慌性回调。
Between January and May of this year, Bitcoin prices rose mildly, reaching US$ 2730 on 25 May, attracting a wider group of investors. However, between June and July, Bitcoin prices were affected by bitcoin splits, leading to a panic swing in the market.
8月中旬,比特币价格强势突破4000美元大关。然而,随后中国央行宣布将ICO定义为非法金融活动,暂停境内交易,比特币价格短期内剧烈震荡,跌幅高达28%。然而随着日本、韩国等国投资者的涌入以及期货交易的推出、金融媒体的密集报道,比特币价格很快触底反弹,12月17日创下了19800美元的历史新高,市值一度超过3000亿美元,随后开始下跌,至12月31日收于低于11000美元的位置。
By mid-August, Bitcoin prices were strong enough to break the $4,000 mark. However, the Central Bank of China announced that it had defined ICO as an illegal financial activity, suspended domestic transactions, and suffered a sharp short-term shock of the Bitcoin price, which had fallen by 28%. But, with the influx of investors from Japan, South Korea, and the introduction of futures transactions, and intense financial media coverage, Bitcoin prices quickly rebounded, and on 17 December reached an all-time high of $19,800, with a market value of over $300 billion, and then began to fall to below $11,000 on 31 December.
迈入2018年,受全球监管趋严以及加密货币交易所频发被盗事件的影响,加密货币市场整体行情大幅下滑。比特币价格自1月份开始崩盘,1月18日跌至10396美元,尽管后期有所反弹,但依然难挽颓势。至2月7日,比特币价格进一步降至7053美元。
Towards 2018, as a result of increased global regulation and the frequent thefts of encrypted currency exchanges, the market for encrypted money as a whole fell sharply. Bitcoin prices fell from January to $10396 on 18 January, and, despite a rebound in the later days, remained difficult to reverse. By February, Bitcoin prices fell further to $7053.
自2月以来,比特币价格一直在震荡下跌,目前徘徊在6300美元附近,较历史峰值已缩水近三分之二。
Bitcoin prices have been falling since February and are currently hovering around $6,300, with the historical peak shrinking by almost two thirds.
对于此轮下跌的原因,业界普遍认为主要包括:
For the reasons for this round of decline, the industry is generally of the opinion that the main factors include:
ICO泡沫破裂。2017年ICO项目过度狂热,推高了加密数字货币的整体市值,但进入2018年后,投资者发现许多项目无法落地,市场悲观情绪加剧,大量抛售行为涌现。
The ICO bubble burst. In 2017, the ICO project was too fanatical to push up the overall market value of encrypted digital currencies, but after entering 2018, investors discovered that many of the projects could not land, that market pessimism had increased and that a large number of sales had taken place.
全球监管收紧。世界各国对数字货币的监管力度不断加大,一方面引起市场恐慌情绪,另一方面也给数字货币交易带来不小的压力。
Global regulation has been tightened. Increased regulation of digital money around the world has caused market panic on the one hand, and considerable pressure on digital currency transactions on the other.
劣质币种遭遇淘汰。不少项目ICO后流动性不足,进展缓慢,其代币遭到各大交易所的陆续清退。
Poor-quality currencies have been eliminated.
矿工与项目方选择套现。鉴于市场环境,部分矿工和项目方转而选择将持有的币种卖出,
The miners and projecters choose to sell the currency they hold, given the market environment.
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