本周美股再度上涨，全球股市都陷入2024年的牛市气氛中，随着降息预期越来越强，新一年股市行情还是非常让人期待的。近期人民币资产持续升值，会不会再度刺激A股走强一起实现2024年大牛市狂欢？
This week’s US share has risen again, the global stock market has been mired in a 2024 cattle-market climate, and, as interest-reduction expectations have grown stronger, the new year’s stock market has been very much expected. Will the recent rise in the renminbi’s assets again spur A’s strong move toward a 2024 Big Cow Carnival?
先回顾本周的市场行情，上证指数上周五收盘3038.97点，周五收盘3054.27点，区间涨幅0.51%， 创业板指上周五收盘2005.24点，周五收盘1986.53点，区间涨幅-0.93%，美股道琼斯指数本周报收34947.28点上涨1.94%，标普500本周报收4514.02点上涨2.24%，纳斯达克本周报收14125.48点上涨2.37%。从数据上看，创业板成为本周唯一调整的指数，上证指数虽然上涨，但还是远弱于美股涨幅，与创业板结合起来，活生生的减量博弈震荡市。上周说美股牛市来了估计很多人还不相信，现在呢？如果在美股与A股之间选一个，我觉得美股表现会更稳一些。
After reviewing the market performance of this week, the above-mentioned index closed last Friday at 3038.97, Friday at 3054.27, with an increase of 0.51 per cent, and the start-up board refers to last Friday at 2005.24, Friday at 1986.53, with an increase of 0.93 per cent, the US-Secret Jones Index, with an increase of 1.444 per cent, the US-Secret Jones Index this week at 4514.02, with an increase of 2.24 per cent for the 500-week period and an increase of 14125.48 per cent for the Nasdak current week. From the data, the start-up panel is the only index adjusted for the week.
复盘一下本周市场的主要表现。资金进出情况是这样的：【备注：这是板块均涨幅，不是板块指数涨幅】
Let's take a look at the main performance of the market this week. Here's the financial access: [Note: This is an increase in the size of the plate, not an increase in the size of the index]
从本周市场运行情况看，成交量较大（1000亿以上）的领涨板块是汽车（3275亿）、软件服务（4716亿）、IT设备（1173亿）、通信设备（2459亿）、互联网（1610亿），换手率靠前（10%以上）的上涨板块是软件服务（20.14%）、互联网（19.65%）、IT设备（15.78%）、通信设备（15.75%）、文教休闲（14.69%）、汽车（12.47%）、传媒娱乐（12.11%），资金明显集中在TMT行业与汽车行业中，其中TMT行业上周也是资金关注的焦点，很明显，进入四季度，市场对科技行业的关注度明显提高，如果四季度还有行情，大概率还是围绕这个方向展开。成交量较大（1000亿以上）的领跌板块没有出现，也没有换手率靠前（10%以上）的下跌板块，因此本周并没有明显的资金流出现象，但创业板在几乎会板块上涨的情况下出现回调，权重类个股拖累市场非常明显，为什么会出现这个情况呢？难道又是北向资金流出影响吗？
In view of the performance of the market this week, the larger upturns (over 100 billion) are cars (over 327.5 billion), software services (over 47.1 billion), IT equipment (11.7 billion), communications equipment (24.5 billion), the Internet (16.1 billion), the previously high turnover (10 per cent), software services (20.14 per cent), the Internet (19.65 per cent), IT equipment (15.78 per cent), communications equipment (15.75 per cent), recreation (14.69 per cent), cars (12.47 per cent) and media entertainment (12.11 per cent), with the TMT sector being the focus of financial attention last week. It is clear that the market's interest in the science and technology sector has increased significantly in the last four quarters. If there is still a movement in the fourth quarter, probably around this direction.
再从公开可查询到的资金面情况看，北向资金本周净买入-49.75亿，融资余额（借钱炒股）全周以净流入为主，净流入164.34亿；融券余额（卖股做空）比上周增加9.81亿。整体来说本周资金面以净流入为主，其中国内资金流入约170亿（上周流入约240亿），北向资金流入-50亿左右（上周流入-80亿左右）。从北向资金流入的力度看，本周其实是少于上一周的，周创业板在北向资金流出的情况下还能上涨，本周流出幅度偏少，但变成下跌，这明显不是北向资金导致的。此外大家发现没有，近一个月两融资金直线流入，斜率很陡，但并没有对市场有任何刺激作用。很明显，资金面已经不是决定市场走势的关键。否则无法解释，如此多的两融资金进场，指数还是一动不动的躺着。
On the other hand, from the publicly available financial landscape, North is buying up to 4975 million dollars this week, and the financing balance (lending shares) is moving up to 16,434 million dollars on a full week-long basis; and the balance of coupons (selling shares) is increasing by 981 million more than last week. On the whole, this week is dominated by net inflows, with domestic flows of about 17 billion (about 24 billion last week), and North inflows - about 5 billion (about 8 billion last week). From the strength of North-to-North inflows, this week is actually less than the previous week, with the start-up board rising in the case of North-to-North outflows, but falling, apparently not as a result of North-to-South flows.
最后看看成交量：本周日均成交量是8858.85亿（上周均量9767.39亿），本周成交量明显低于上一周，由于市场已经训练成：成交量增加看涨，成交量下降看跌的惯性思维，本周成交量只要是萎缩的，就代表市场没有赚钱效应，表现为连板个股天数增加，这种情况前期也出现过，这可不是市场走强的现象，正是因为市场不强没有承接资金，主力无法派发，只能硬生生的往上拉。还有一个小细节，近两周只要出现成交量明显萎缩，跌停板个股数会明显增加，也是这个现象的一个表现模式。总的来说，本周市场就是为炒而炒，既然非业绩改善导致的市场上行，也非市场回暖导致的价格收复，炒作过后很容易从哪里来，往哪里去，因此这种行情对指数没有意义，对大部分朋友也没有意义。
Finally, look at the volume of transactions: this Sunday averaged 88,588 million (compared to 97,67.39 million last week) and this week's turnover was significantly lower than last week. The market has been trained to learn that, as long as the volume of transactions has increased and the number of stocks falling has fallen, this week's turnover represents as long as it is shrinking, that there is no profit-making effect on the market as it is, and this has occurred before, because the market is not strong because the market is not strong and the main power is not available, it is hard to distribute and it is hard to pull up. There is also a small detail that, in the last two weeks, as long as the volume of transactions is clearly shrinking, the number of stocks falling is likely to increase, it is also a pattern of this phenomenon.
再分析一下美股，如果前两周还没有看清楚美股走势，这是经验不足导致缺火候，但纳指都涨了四周了，还没有看清楚下跌5浪结束，那就不应该了。当前纳指运行在去年大主升波段五浪调整后的修复浪，也可以说是2024年牛市上行的第一浪，由于第一浪结束后还有二浪调整，三浪上涨，四浪调整 ，最后才出现加速上行波段，无论是一浪上涨时参与，还是二浪调整时参与，对于2024年的美股来说，当前时间点都是启动点，都是机会。因此无论美股将来是否出现回调，2024年的行情其实已经展开了。如果以确定性说，当前美股会高于A股。
Analyzing the US share, if the first two weeks had not been clear about the performance of the US stock, which was a lack of fire due to inexperience, but the finger had risen by four weeks and the five-wave drop had not yet been clear, it should not have been. Currently, the finger is running after the five-wave adjustment of last year’s main lift, or the first wave of the cattle market in 2024, and the two-wave adjustment, the three-wave increase, the four-wave adjustment, followed by the acceleration of the upper wave, whether one-wave rise or the two-wave adjustment, is a start point and an opportunity for the US share in 2024.
还有一个让大家想不到的地方，本周离岸人民币兑美元涨幅扩大，一度升破7.2，本周累计上涨逾890点。离岸人民币汇率在近一个月的时间里，一度涨了1400点左右。人民币近期在升值，但无论是楼市还是股市，并没有感觉到人民币升值带来的影响。种种现象表现，当前股市属于对利好完全失效，只会对利空消息有反应，在这样的市场里博弈，往往会事倍功半。如果无法解决这个问题，我觉得市场还会这样震荡下去，继续跑输美股。
There is also an unexpectedly large increase in the offshore renminbi against the United States dollar this week, which rose by over 7.2 points, and by over 890 points this week. The exchange rate for the offshore renminbi rose by about 1400 points in almost a month.
在展望下周A股前，先重温上周的市场观点，当时是这样看的：
Before looking ahead to next week's A share, we would like to revisit last week's market view, as we observed:
资金没有合力，以存量博弈看待A股反弹，除非出现北向、国内资金一起持续流入三天以上（数据上两天已经行不通了），一旦出现指数冲高回落，题材接力断档，落袋为安可能符合当前行情节奏。上证指数虽然站上5周线，但并没有主动上涨动力，如果还像本周、上周只涨一天随后调整，请及时作出止盈落袋策略等待下一次机会。创业板指在反抽途中出现上影线已经遇上阻力，说明反弹动力并不充足，没有资金合力的情况下只要再发现走弱，先要保住获利果实，而不是继续盲目投入。题材方向，成交量是放大了，但题材接力热度反而低了，意味着资金在上涨途中更谨慎，由于是存量博弈，下周主线并不是科技方向，而是资金关注的另一面：医药板块。资金只敢围绕前期介入很深的板块来回博弈，从严格意义上说也是另一种防守抱团，打不开反弹格局的情况下其它板块别碰！
The above index, although on the five-week line, is not active, and if it is adjusted after only one day this week, it means that the money is more cautious on the way up, and that next time it waits for the next opportunity. The starting board means that the front line next week is not a scientific or technological direction, but another aspect of the money focus: the medical plate: it's just a little bit too much to focus on, but it's a little bit more on the front line than it is on the front line.
从上周的展望来看，谨慎没有大错，本周资金面的确没有连续三天北向净流入创业板也的确冲高回落，保住胜利果实的确是最好的策略。但上证指数走势比预期要强，题材方向依旧是科技方向，这两点是超预期的表现，也值得肯定，因此上周展望属于符合市场预期下的超预期表现，不能因为创业板走弱而全面看淡市场，所以下周的策略已经很清晰了：
From last week’s outlook, caution is not wrong, and it is true that there is no three consecutive days of net capital inflows northwards to the start-up board, and it is the best strategy to save the fruits of the victory. But the above-stated index is stronger than expected, and the subject is still in the direction of technology, both of which are over-expected and worthy of recognition, so last week’s outlook is an over-expected performance that meets market expectations and does not allow the market to be diluted as a result of weak start-up boards:
1、资金继续大幅流入但没有合力，市场或会进入结构化行情阶段，即指数归指数，个股归个股，只要不出现极端行情就不会齐涨齐跌，既然北向资金继续流出，那就回避这方向的板块与个股。
The market may be entering a phase of structuralization, i.e. indexing, share-sharing, which will not rise and fall as long as extremes do not occur. Since the flow of funds from the north continues, the block and the share in this direction should be avoided.
2、上证指数周线四连阳，但并没有产生超买信号，10周线的压力看起来并不大，但在北向资金流出的情况下，要向上突破也挺难的，估计还会在10周线附近震荡，直到出现转机。属于止跌不反弹的情况，应该以小盘个股博弈为准（中证2000指数近一个月涨幅挺好的）。【备注：造成不要与美股相比，美股已经是牛市信号了】
2. The upward index line is four-way, but it does not produce a super-buying signal, and the pressure on the 10-week line does not seem to be strong, but in the case of a north-to-south cash flow, it is difficult to break upwards, and it is estimated that it will tremor near the 10-week line until there is a turn-off. In the case of non-reaction, it should be based on a small disk of stock games (the middle certificate 2000 index has increased by almost a month).
3、 创业板指上周遇阻本周回落，但还在10周线上方。由于前期严重超跌，即使没有资金流入，在技术上也存在反弹修复的机会，指数上的反弹指望不了过高，依旧以反抽策略对待，下周如发现支撑信号加强，还可以再看涨一波，反弹目标定在20周线，如果连支撑的动力也没有，本轮反弹也就结束了。
Three, & nbsp; the start-up board was blocked last week, but it was still above the 10-week line. Because of the sharp pre-optimal collapse, even without the inflow of funds, there was a technical chance of a rebound, the rebound on the index could not be expected to be too high, it could still be treated as a counter-smoking strategy, and next week, if the support signal was found to be stronger, it could be increased by another wave, the target was set at 20 weeks, and if there was no back-up, the round would be over.
4、题材方向，由于科技方向出现了比较好的延续性，而中证2000涨幅明显强于上证与创业，下周炒作的方向应该是小盘+题材，由于TMT题材资金介入比较深，我觉得还会有机会，其它板块出现整体行情的可能性不高，暂时不建议分散注意力关注。
4. Because of the relatively good continuity in the direction of science and technology, and given that the increase in China 2000 is clearly stronger than that of certification and entrepreneurship, next week's campaign should be directed towards a small plate plus, and because of the relatively deep financial involvement in TMT issues, I think there will be a chance that other sections will be less likely to have an overall dynamic, and for the time being it is not recommended that attention be diverted.
省流：本周A股行情分歧，小盘股策略优于蓝筹股、白马股、成长股，由于资金面分歧，继续权重低迷题材唱戏的可能性更大。指数方面，美股已率先进入2024年牛市值得重点关注。
Stewardship: has a different agenda this week, and small holdings have a better strategy than blues, white horses, growth, and there is a greater likelihood that the power will continue to be low due to differences in funding. On the index side, the US share has taken the lead in the 2024 cattle market.
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特别提示：
Special reminder:
1，以上内容仅仅是个人的投资日记，不具有指导功能。
1 The above is a personal investment journal and does not have guidance functions.
2，观点仅供参考，是否跟随思路操作需要投资者自行判断。
2 For information purposes only, it is the investor's discretion to follow the line of thought.
3，创作不易，如果觉得喜欢的话，欢迎点赞、评论+关注我：风雨顺德人。
Three, creation is not easy, and if you like it, welcome a compliment, comment + focus on me: the wind is good.
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