很多朋友对于币圈行情最新消息和今天币圈大盘下跌原因不太懂，今天就由小编来为大家分享，希望可以帮助到大家，下面一起来看看吧！
A lot of friends don't understand the latest news about currency circles and why they're falling today. We'll share it with the editor today. I hope it will help us all. Let's take a look.
通膨来了，这一次真的来了。也许我们在消费市场上现在感觉还不强烈，但这只是开始。就像财经网对电子工厂的采访：“我做工厂十几年，没有这么涨过，不是一个品类涨，而是大部分品类都在涨；不是涨3~5个点，而是10%、20%地涨”。现在的通膨第一波，上涨的主要是原材料和大宗物资，在我们不知不觉之中，从去年6月开始，铜涨38%，纸涨50%，塑料涨35%，铝材涨37%，铁涨30%，玻璃涨30%，锌合金涨48%，不锈钢涨45%，而IC则涨了超过100%。2月底以来，据说不少品类的上涨幅度可以称之为“失控”，疯狂上涨，例如有特种纸一次性跳涨3000元/吨！无论是化工原料、工业金属还是纺织，都在不停地上涨，不少工厂生产因此停工，也许部分在工厂工作的读者已经感受到这波通膨的犀利。
Inflation has come up, and this time it's really happening. Maybe we don't feel strong in the consumer market, but it's just the beginning. It's like an interview with an electronic factory by the financial network: “I've been a factory for 10 years, not so much up, not a product increase, but a majority of the goods increase; not three to five points, but 10 per cent, 20 per cent.” The first wave of inflation is now known to be a rise in raw materials and bulk goods, and, unwittingly, 38 per cent in copper, 50 per cent in paper, 35 per cent in plastic, 37 per cent in aluminium, 30 per cent in iron, 30 per cent in glass, 48 per cent in zinc alloy, 45 per cent in stainless steel, and more than 100 per cent in IC. Since the end of February, it has been reported that a lot of product increases can be described as “out of control”, and a crazy rise, such as a one-off of 3,000 tons in special paper.
通膨的根本原因，大家都清楚是因为新冠疫情后，全球法币流动性泛滥的结果，全球超发了19.5万亿美元的各国法币（美国大约是5万亿美元），我们国家的M2货币也在一年中为了扶持经济而增加了超过10%，这是平常3年的量。所以全球的经济学家们早就在担心恶性的通膨的来临，现在通膨开始真的来了。
The underlying causes of inflation, as we all know, are the effects of global French liquidity in the wake of the new crown epidemic, with a global excess of 19.5 trillion dollars in national French (about $5 trillion in the United States) and an increase of more than 10% in our national M2 currency in order to support the economy in one year, which is the usual three-year amount. So global economists are already worried about the onset of bad inflation, and inflation is beginning to happen.
当然目前通膨有“虚火”的成分，不少涨价是材料厂商与资本联合借势的结果，这种行为恐怕会遭到国家的调控管制。但无论如何也必须清醒地认识到，现在的基础就是“过多的货币追逐过少的物资”，法币流动性泛滥已成事实，无论各种汇率如何，法币相对于物质只能是贬值，通膨无可避免地随着各国经济复苏而到来，政府们可以通过种种政策来降低通膨的影响和调控通膨过于膨胀，但绝对难以消灭，现在指望的，不过是能够管控以免发展为恶性通膨而已。
Of course, the current inflation has a “flash” component, and many of the price increases are the result of a combination of materials and capital borrowing, which is likely to be regulated by the state. But it must also be clear that the basis now is “excessive currency pursuits of too few goods,” and that the proliferation of French currency liquidity is a fact. Whatever the exchange rate, French currency relative to material depreciation, inflation inevitably comes with economic recovery, governments can adopt policies to reduce the impact of inflation and to regulate inflation inflating, but it is absolutely impossible to eliminate it.
说实话，目前在消费市场上我们感觉还不强烈，是因为通膨的传导是有一定滞后性的，先是基础原材料（金属、化工、化肥、纸涨等），然后才是工业制成品，最后才是农产品（例如大米现在3月播种到11月收割，届时才会反映暴增的成本）。对于我们这些普通消费者来说，这种通膨的威力，大致会在下半年开始体会，而到年底则开始全面体会。最近蓝调阅读美国的财经文章，经常看到还有“学者”或“财经媒体”在说目前美国的通膨预期并不强烈，每次看到蓝调都想笑，美国的“社会必需品”大多数仰赖中国和其它国家，一直算是“最终消费国”，所以现在全球生产国开始的通膨还没有传导到最终消费市场而已，下半年他们就知道什么叫真正的通膨预期了，其实那时候就不是通膨预期，而是通膨的实质了。当然，这其中确实有些学者或媒体是不专业，但有些则不过是配合美联储稳定市场而已，遵循金主的意志故意扭曲而已。
To be honest, we do not feel strong at the moment in the consumer market because there is a certain lag in the transmission of inflation, starting with basic raw materials (metals, chemicals, fertilizers, paper rises, etc.), followed by industrial manufactures (e.g. rice now sows in March until harvests in November, when the cost of such inflation will not be reflected). For us ordinary consumers, the power of inflation will probably begin in the second half, but will begin at the end of the year. The recent blue reading of America’s financial writings, often seen as “students” or “fiscal media” is saying that inflation in the United States is not very strong, every time they see it, they laugh at the fact that most of America’s “social necessities” have been “final consumers” in China and other countries.
所以一次缓释的大地震已经开始，目前发生在基础层（基础原材料），很快会传导到工业产品层，最终影响农产品和所有消费。虽然通膨的发展不像地震那么快，但其对经济的效应是一样的。这是2021年经济也好，投资也好，都必须面对的残酷事实。
So a slow major earthquake has begun, and it is now taking place on the ground floor (basic raw materials) and will soon be passed on to the industrial product layer, ultimately affecting agricultural products and all consumption. Although inflation is not growing as fast as the earthquake, its effects on the economy are the same. This is the cruel fact that the economy was better in 2021, and investment was better.
对于比特币来说，这场大地震是双层的效应，将导致今年比特币行情的相对不稳定，恐怕会发生若干次的大跌大涨，传导之下整体币圈也会因为比特币的涨跌而动荡。为什么呢？
For Bitcoin, the earthquake was a double-storey effect that would lead to relative instability in bitcoin performance this year, and there would be a number of major drops, and the entire currency circle would be disturbed by bitcoin up and down. Why?
第一层效应是宏观经济和政策的不稳定性。以美国为例，在通膨面前政府是两难，形成了一对矛盾，如果提高利率减少资本流动来控制通膨发展速率，那就是压制经济和消费复苏，而如果为了经济复苏继续扩张美元投放量，流动性泛滥之下通膨自然会快速发展。在过去的一年虽然法币泛滥，但是新冠疫情压制了消费和投资，消费低迷之下通膨暂时被压制，但现在不同，新冠疫情效应开始减小，开始追求经济复苏，消费和投资开始复苏之下，流动性泛滥的问题就开始爆发出来。所以政府们对于通膨都是在走钢丝，不能没有，不能太高。这大概率会导致今年的政策很敏感和多变，因为政府们也只能走一步看一步。这种经济发展上和相应政策的不确定性为今年的投资市场投下了阴影。坦白说，就是可能会有若干次的大跌，又会有若干次的大涨，在行情图表上形成若干次深V走势。
The first layer of effects is macroeconomic and policy instability. In the United States, for example, the government’s dilemma in the face of inflation is a paradox. If interest rate increases reduce capital flows to control inflation’s growth rate, the economy and consumption recovery will be stifled, and if dollar spending continues to expand in the interest of economic recovery, liquidity inflation will grow rapidly.
第二层效应是比特币的抗通膨性。这个效应现在很不显著，显著的是比特币的风险资产属性即“涨服效应”。但随着通膨的发展和深化，比特币的抗通膨性应该会逐渐得到重视。例如一种可能的情形是，在经济和政策动荡之下，股市和其它全球投资市场发生脉冲式大跌，比特币作为风险资产也会跟跌，但每一次下跌之后，其抗通膨性又因为通膨的存在和发展而得到重视，吸引资本买入。这样的一跌一涨的V型波浪起伏，可能形成比特币未来一年内行情发展的一个显著特点。
The second layer of effects is the anti-inflationary nature of Bitcoin. The effect is not significant now, with Bitcoin’s risk-asset attributes being “uplifting effects.” But, as inflation grows and deepens, Bitcoin’s anti-inflationaryness should be given increasing attention. One possibility, for example, is that, in the midst of economic and policy turmoil, the stock market and other global investment markets will experience a pultic collapse, and that Bitcoin, as a risk asset, will fall, but each time it falls, its anti-inflationaryness is valued for the existence and development of inflation, attracting capital.
最后说一下，蓝调知道现在多数人并不会太重视通膨，因为这一代人几乎都没有什么高通膨状态下生活和投资的经验，前几年美国很多人甚至认为通膨已经永久不会再见。美联储当下还在大谈控制在2%左右有利于经济的温和通膨，但有些美国机构在他们致重要客户的函件中却已经估测2021年美国的通膨水平为10%左右，对于大国来说这是一个可怕的数字，例如主粮关乎人命，政府可能通过管制能控制住使之不涨价或者少涨价，但很多其它生活和社会必需品就会涨30%甚至40%，这将导致非常大的冲击。
Finally, the Blue Note knows that most people now do not attach much importance to inflation, because almost none of this generation has much experience in living and investing in inflation, and many in the United States have thought inflation would never happen again in the past few years. The Fed is still talking about controlling moderate inflation that benefits the economy by around 2%, but some United States agencies have estimated in their correspondence with important clients that the inflation level in the United States in 2021 is around 10%, which is a terrible figure for large countries, such as the life-threatening nature of staple foods, the possibility that governments can control it by regulation, but that many other necessities of life and society will rise by 30 or 40%, which will cause a very large shock.
以上就是蓝调对当下全球通膨发展情况的解析以及对通膨发展影响比特币和币圈行情的一些思考。一家之言，仅供参考。
These are some of the analyses of current global inflation developments in the blues, as well as some reflections about the impact of inflation on bitcoin and currency circles.
站在未来看现在，蓝调与你一起感受时代之风！
Stand in the future and now, the blues will feel the wind of the times with you!
这里有个前提，全球疫情导致资本大量释放。
There is a premise that the global epidemic has led to a massive release of capital.
在美国，综合多方数据来看，本轮疫情期间美联储放水总量已超过30万亿美元。如果你只看美联储的资产负债表，你无法得到这些数据。因为美联储的资产负债表才3万亿多美元，这次放水是史无前例的，对美元的信用或美元的根基产生了巨大的影响，但美元会被救市，所以崩盘比较难，因此2022年加息一定要雷厉风行，才能延缓美元危机的爆发。在加息的消息放出之前，资本市场发生的变化：
In the United States, a combination of multiple data shows that the Fed released more than $30 trillion during the current round of the epidemic. If you look only at the Fed’s balance sheet, you will not be able to get it. Because the Fed’s balance sheet is more than $3 trillion, this release has an unprecedented impact on the dollar’s credit or the dollar’s foundation, but the dollar will be rescued, so it will be difficult to crash, so that in 2022 the interest increase will have to be sharp enough to slow the US dollar crisis.
1，加密资产市场：冰糖橙从 6.9万美元跌至 3万美元（当然现在涨到了 4万多美元）。
1. Encrypted asset markets: Iced oranges dropped from $69,000 to $30,000 (which, of course, has now risen to over $40,000).
2，传统的资本市场：社交第一巨头meta（也就是之前的facebook），跌幅接近50%；腾讯下跌接近50%；元宇宙中最强大的谷歌，已经陷入滞涨六个月了；即便是数据库甲骨文也下跌了30%以上。仅仅一些消息就大跌这在美国资本市场上是很少见的。
Traditional capital markets: the social first-largest meta (the previous facebook) fell close to 50 per cent; the tether fell close to 50 per cent; the most powerful Google in the Woncosmos has been stagnating for six months; even the database's Oracle has fallen by more than 30 per cent.
这些互联网巨头，它下跌有多个原因：一是传统互联网发展已到顶峰，业绩难以进一步增长。
These Internet giants have fallen for a number of reasons: first, traditional Internet development has reached its peak and performance is unlikely to grow further.
二是这些传统互联网巨头获得了很多本不应该获得的权利（比如数据权）
Second, these traditional Internet giants get a lot of rights (such as data rights) that they shouldn't have.
三是美元加息预期十分明确。在过去的加息过程中，伴随着争议和对抗，而2022年的加息已经在全球资本市场基本形成共识，因此加息的格局几乎不会改变。
Third, the expectation of an increase in the dollar is clear. In the past, the increase was accompanied by controversy and confrontation, and the 2022 increase was largely agreed in the global capital markets, so that the pattern of interest increases will hardly change.
无论是传统资本市场还是我们的虚拟资产都是闻风先跌，这一轮跌势的威力都不容小觑，而现在世界对这些传统互联网的数据霸权非常警惕，并出台了各种限制数据的条款这些巨头的霸权。
Both traditional capital markets and our virtual assets were the first to fall, and the weight of this downward spiral cannot be underestimated, and the world is now very vigilant about these traditional Internet data hegemonics and has put in place various data-restrictive provisions, such hegemonic hegemonic powers.
今天币圈大盘下跌原因有：
The reason why the currency has fallen today is:
1、币圈需求减少。在疫情蔓延趋势下，全球交易量减少，人们变得保守，社会消费总量大幅减少。这时候用比特币结算的交易量大大减少，需求减少，价格就会下跌。
With the spread of the epidemic, global transactions have declined, people have become conservative, and total social consumption has declined significantly. At this time, the volume of transactions settled in bitcoin has been significantly reduced, and demand has been reduced, and prices have fallen.
2、价格暴跌风险高。受资本炒作影响，虚拟货币价格涨跌剧烈，普通投资者难以预测，极易造成爆仓损失。历史上，比特币等加密货币在高峰时突然暴跌十几次。狗币近期狂涨又暴跌的背后，是一场以“马斯克”为代表的资本大鳄收割普通投资者的“割韭菜游戏”。
Historically, encrypted currencies such as Bitcoins have suddenly plunged dozens of times at peaks. Behind the recent surge and collapse of dog coins is a “cooking game” for ordinary investors, represented by the “Mask” capital crocodiles.
3、虚拟货币没有内在价值，风险非常高。虚拟货币本质上没有货币交易功能，不被世界任何国家认可。目前，加密货币价格的大幅上涨主要是市场炒作造成的。一旦世界各国明确否认这些不受国家控制的虚拟货币的价值，虚拟货币将瞬间变得一文不值，广大投资者持有的虚拟货币也将被彻底锁定。
At present, the sharp rise in the price of encrypted currencies is largely due to market speculation. Once the value of these virtual currencies, which are not controlled by the state, is explicitly denied by the world, virtual currencies will suddenly become worthless, and virtual currencies held by a wide range of investors will be locked in.
拓展资料：
Outreach materials:
1）币圈，数字货币玩家自然形成的圈子。数字货币简称DC，英文是“digital currency”（数字货币）的缩写，是一种电子货币形式的替代货币。数字金币和密码货币都属于数字货币。数字货币是一种不受监管的数字货币，通常由开发者发行和管理，并为特定虚拟社区的成员所接受和使用。欧洲银行业管理局将虚拟货币定义为：价值的数字表示形式，不由中央银行或当局发行，不与法定货币挂钩，但由于被公众接受，因此可以作为支付手段或转移，以电子形式存储或交易。
1) Currency circles, naturally formed by digital money players. The digital currency acronym DC, in English, is the acronym “digital currency” and is an alternative currency in the form of an electronic currency. Digital gold and crypto-currency are digital currencies. Digital currency is an unregulated digital currency that is usually issued and managed by developers and accepted and used by members of a particular virtual community. The European Banking Authority defines virtual currency as a digital expression of value that is not issued by a central bank or authority and is not linked to a legal currency, but can be stored or traded electronically as a means of payment or transfer because it is accepted by the public.
2）币圈三退——虚拟货币交易平台OKEx的掌门人，已进军中国大陆市场。从暂停中国大陆注册的中国大陆用户到大陆，中国大陆用户一直受到监管部门的不断打击。国内的虚拟货币交易已经完全“凉”了。币圈、币圈、OKex等虚拟货币交易平台的三位负责人，均被中国大陆市场“官宣”。而且，据北京日报记者报道，截至10月14日，至少有10家虚拟货币交易所宣布召回中国大陆股票用户，部分中小机构直接宣布关闭。鉴于交易所切断交易通道已成定局，不少币圈用户也开始尝试在“截止日期”前寻找新的交易路径。
Second, the currency chain has been completely “cool” in China. The three heads of virtual currency trading platforms, such as the currency ring, the currency ring, and the OKex, have been “officially declared” by the mainland market. Moreover, according to the Beijing daily press, at least 10 virtual currency exchanges announced the recall of mainland Chinese stock users as of 14 October, with some small and medium-sized institutions directly declared closed, given that the exchange cut-off route has been finalized.
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