作者：夏春
By: Summer Spring & nbsp;
核心观点 1、比特币对传统货币体系的批评并不正确，对社会而言比特币本身的缺点可能大于优点，比特币会继续演化并具备存在价值，未来将主要面对来自央行法定数字货币的竞争。2、维持今年美元兑人民币汇率在6.3-6.7之间波动的观点，未来，影响汇率的市场因素和政策因素很多，人民币既可能升值，也可能贬值。3、建议大家理性投资，应该以长期投资的预期收益，进出口的成本和预期收益，以及生活实际需要来引导外汇交易。现在我们知道，比特币的产生基于对传统货币中心化体系的批评，以及对量化宽松带来通胀的担忧，但实际上，传统货币中心体系作为人类经济金融发展不断演化的产物，其优点远远大于缺点，而量化宽松并没有带来高通胀。
Core view 1, Bitcoin’s criticism of the traditional monetary system is incorrect, and the shortcomings of Bitcoin itself may be greater for society than their merits, and Bitcoin will continue to evolve and have value, and will face future competition mainly from the central bank’s statutory digital currency. 2, Maintaining the view that the dollar’s exchange rate fluctuates between 6.3 and 6.7 per cent this year, with many market and policy factors affecting the exchange rate in the future, the renminbi may both appreciate and depreciate. 3, It is suggested that rational investment should lead to foreign exchange transactions with the expected return on long-term investment, the cost of imports and exports, and the actual need for life. We now know that Bitcoin’s generation is based on criticism of the traditional system of centralization of currencies and concerns about inflation arising from quantitative easing, but in fact, the traditional monetary centre system, as a product of the ongoing evolution of human economic finance, has far greater advantages than its disadvantages, while quantitative easing does not lead to high inflation.
核心观点
Core perspectives
1、比特币对传统货币体系的批评并不正确，对社会而言比特币本身的缺点可能大于优点，比特币会继续演化并具备存在价值，未来将主要面对来自央行法定数字货币的竞争。
1. Bitcoin’s criticism of the traditional monetary system is incorrect, its own shortcomings may outweigh its advantages for society, it will continue to evolve and have value, and it will face competition mainly from the central bank’s statutory digital currency in the future.
2、维持今年美元兑人民币汇率在6.3-6.7之间波动的观点，未来，影响汇率的市场因素和政策因素很多，人民币既可能升值，也可能贬值。
2. In the future, there are many market and policy factors affecting the exchange rate, and the renminbi may either appreciate or devalue, maintaining the view that this year's exchange rate between the United States dollar and the renminbi fluctuates between 6.3 and 6.7.
3、建议大家理性投资，应该以长期投资的预期收益，进出口的成本和预期收益，以及生活实际需要来引导外汇交易。即使配置比特币这类高风险资产，也要限制仓位，回避杠杆。
3. It is suggested that rational investment should guide foreign-exchange transactions with the expected return on long-term investments, the costs of imports and exports, and the actual needs of life. Even if high-risk assets such as Bitcoin are configured, it should limit storage and avoid leverage.
比特币的产生是货币演化，经济思想，技术储备发展到一定阶段之后，因为2008年金融危机爆发，美联储救市启动后反华尔街，反建制，反通胀思潮的兴起，在中本聪的天才发明下产生的。
Bitcoin emerged after a period of currency evolution, economic thinking, and technological reserves, as a result of the financial crisis that broke out in 2008 and the rise of anti-Wall Street, anti-inflationary thinking following the launch of the Federal Reserve.
尽管过去12年比特币的价格涨幅远超人类所知的一切资产，但同时它的波动性恐怕也远超同期所有的资产。比特币自2009年诞生后经历了四次价格的暴涨暴跌，每次暴涨都与货币宽松，名人明星推动有关，而每次暴跌都与比特币的内在缺陷以，金融条件收紧与强化监管密切相关。
Although the price of bitcoin has increased far more than any asset known to mankind in the last 12 years, it is also more volatile than all assets in the same period. Bitcoin has experienced four price surges and falls since its birth in 2009, each related to monetary easing, celebrity star-driven, and each to Bitcoin’s inherent flaws, with tight financial conditions closely linked to strengthened regulation.
现在我们知道，比特币的产生基于对传统货币中心化体系的批评，以及对量化宽松带来通胀的担忧，但实际上，传统货币中心体系作为人类经济金融发展不断演化的产物，其优点远远大于缺点，而量化宽松并没有带来高通胀。
Now we know that Bitcoin is generated on the basis of criticism of the traditional monetary centralization system and concerns about inflation associated with quantitative easing, but in fact, the traditional monetary centre system, as a product of the evolution of human economic and financial development, has far greater advantages than its shortcomings, and quantitative easing has not brought about high inflation.
事实上，今年以来市场关于通胀的争论，很大程度上仍然停留在货币超发必然带来通胀的传统思维上，我已经多次撰文指出这种观点的不足。
In fact, the debate on inflation in the market since this year has largely remained in the traditional mindset that over-epidation of currencies necessarily leads to inflation, and I have written many times about the inadequacy of this view.
反过来，比特币所宣称的“去中心化“的优点反而带来交易成本高，耗能高，定价权集中带来价格暴涨暴跌等缺点，目前的共识是，对社会来说，比特币的缺点可能大于其优点。
Conversely, the “decentralized” advantage claimed by Bitcoin has brought down such disadvantages as high transaction costs, high energy consumption and a sharp price boom and drop in the concentration of pricing power, and the current consensus is that for society the shortcomings of Bitcoin may outweigh their advantages.
不过，这并不代表比特币没有存在的价值（巴菲特对比特币的判断也同样是情绪化的），随着虚拟世界的兴起，在我们的生活中扮演越来越大的角色，比特币以及其他加密货币已经发展出一整套类似股票，债券，黄金等资产的交易生态系统。尽管加密货币的总市值相对于金融市场和黄金还很小，但是比特币在高点的市值可以排到全球第六大上市公司。加上人类这种动物与其他动物最本质的区别在于前者相信“故事”，有“创意”和“信仰”，即使严监管下，少数几种加密货币有生存的空间。
This does not mean, however, that Bitcoin does not exist (Bafit's judgement is emotional as well), that, with the emergence of the virtual world, playing an increasing role in our lives, bitcoin and other encrypted currencies have developed a trading ecosystem of assets like stocks, bonds, gold, and so on. Although the total market value of encrypted money is still small relative to financial markets and gold, Bitcoin’s high market value can rank as the world’s sixth largest listed company.
比特币在过去12年也展现出顽强的生命力，具有反脆弱性的特点。因此，我认为比特币未来发展有三种可能：
Bitcoin has also shown tenacity and anti-vulnerability over the past 12 years. So I think there are three possibilities for Bitcoin to develop in the future:
1、成为虚拟世界一种具有虚拟货币和虚拟商品双重功能的定价之锚，对应黄金在目前法定货币的作用；
1. Become the anchor of a virtual world with a dual function of virtual currency and virtual goods, corresponding to the role of gold in the current legal currency;
2、可能成为机构投资者的资产配置和对冲通胀或美元风险的一种有自身回报和风险特征的资产；
2. An asset with its own returns and risk characteristics that may be an institutional investor's asset allocation and risk against inflation or the United States dollar;
3、成为大额商品跨国和跨境交易的中介，因为这类交易传统上依赖银行，交易时间较长，成本也相对较高。
3. Intermediary between cross-border and cross-border transactions involving large quantities of commodities, as such transactions have traditionally been bank-dependent, with longer transaction times and relatively higher costs.
未来比特币的发展将与监管的态度，以及各国央行法定数字货币的发展密切相关。实际上，比特币支持者对传统的货币体系的批评，可以通过法定数字货币得到很好的解决，进一步优化现有的货币体系。
The future development of bitcoins will be closely linked to regulatory attitudes, as well as to the development of central banks’ statutory digital currencies. Indeed, the criticism of traditional monetary systems by bitcoins’ supporters can be well addressed through legal digital currencies to further optimize the existing monetary system.
近期针对比特币方面的严监管规定很多，除了众所周知的以外，本周三，美国新任证交（SEC)会主席Gary Gensler在出席美国众议院听证会时表示：
There have been a number of recent tight regulations on bitcoin, and, apart from what is well known, this Wednesday, Gary Gensler, the new President of the United States SEC, stated at a hearing in the United States House of Representatives:
“加密货币市场在投资者保护方面存在许多挑战和差距。目前市场上的代币可以在不遵守联邦证券法的情况下发行、出售和交易。此外，还没有一家交易加密代币的交易所在SEC注册为交易所。相比于传统证券市场，这都大大减少了对投资者的保护，也相应地增加了欺诈和操纵的机会。SEC已经将设计欺诈或其他重大损害的代币相关案例列为优先事项。
There are many challenges and gaps with respect to the protection of investors in the crypto-currency market. In the current market, tokens can be issued, sold and traded without complying with federal securities laws. Moreover, there is no exchange for the crypto-demonstration of transactions registered as an exchange in SEC.
总结来说，就是Gensler领导的证交会期待与其他监管机构和国会合作，填补加密货币市场在投资者保护领域的空白。这对于比特币等加密货币的支持者来说算不上好消息。
In conclusion, the SEC, led by Gensler, looks forward to working with other regulators and Congress to fill the gaps in the crypto-currency market in the area of investor protection. This is not good news for supporters of encrypted currencies like Bitcoin.
我们详细分析过Gensler的职业生涯，他是过去20年华尔街最严厉的监管者，没有之一。此前，币圈的人把Gensler出任证交会主席视为对比特币的利好，因为币圈发展确实到了需要监管的时候，比特币作为龙头，会因为监管带来的竞争对手减少而享受利好。不过，这样的观点只适用于比特币本身完全合规的情况，但事实恐怕并非如此。
We analyzed Gensler’s career in detail, he was one of the toughest regulators on Wall Street in the last 20 years. Previously, the currency circle considered Gensler’s appointment as Chairman of the SEC to be a bitcoin’s advantage, because the currency circle actually reached the point where regulation was needed, and Bitcoin, as the leader, would enjoy the benefits of regulation’s reduced rivals. However, such a view applied only to Bitcoin’s own full compliance, but that was not the case.
顺便说一句，Gensler在国会听证会上还指出要对SPAC加强监管。这其实也并不奇怪，我们之前的研究文章已经指出，SPAC形式的上市有利于SPAC的发起人和参与到首轮上市投资的机构，但是对于被SPAC合并的上市公司来说，更加快速的上市的代价是上市的成本其实要比传统IPO更高。
By the way, Gensler also pointed out at the congressional hearing that the regulation of SPAC should be strengthened. This is not surprising, as our previous research articles have pointed out, that the listing in the form of SPAC has been beneficial to SPAC sponsors and institutions involved in the first round of investment, but for the listed companies that have been merged with SPAC, the cost of listing is actually higher than the traditional IPO.
原因在于参与首轮的投资机构通常会提前退出，上市公司真正募集到的钱要比传统IPO更少。更加重要的是，Gensler也注意到研究发现，合并之后第二轮参与进来的散户，通常会遭受投资损失。
More importantly, Gensler also noted that studies had found that the second round of investors involved in the merger usually suffered investment losses.
近期，投资者特别关心的另外一个话题是A股和人民币走势。很显然，近期A股走势部分受益于政府出台了针对加密货币的严监管政策，以及抑制大宗商品价格上涨的措施。实际上，大宗商品近期价格回落，全球对通胀的担忧有所缓和也是全球股市回暖的外部因素。但归根结底，近期A股的走强最核心的因素是人民币走强，外资重新流入。
Another topic of particular interest to investors in the recent past is the trend in shares A and the renminbi. It is clear that the recent trend in shares has benefited in part from the government’s stringent regulatory policies against encrypted currencies, as well as measures to curb commodity price increases.
我们在年初的投资策略视频里清晰地指出今年美元兑人民币汇率应该会在6.3到6.7之间波动。从基本面看，美元进入贬值周期的可能性较大，但是技术角度分析，美元也不会像市场认为的那样快速并且大幅贬值。这是我们今年始终坚持的观点。
We clearly pointed out in the investment strategy video at the beginning of the year that the exchange rate of the United States dollar against the renminbi should fluctuate between 6.3 and 6.7. On the fundamentals, the dollar is more likely to enter a devaluation cycle, but from a technical point of view, the dollar will not fall as fast and sharply as the market sees it. That is what we have always maintained this year.
近期人民币的走强主要因为美元指数从4月以来的贬值，从93.3到现在跌破90。不过，大家也应该看到人民币相对于欧元，英镑和澳元并没有明显的涨幅。即使美元偏弱，我们也认为今年美元兑人民币跌破6.3的可能性不大。
However, one should also note that the renminbi has not increased significantly in relation to the euro, the pound sterling and the Australian dollar. Even if the dollar is weak, it is unlikely that the dollar will fall against the renminbi by 6.3 this year.
一方面，人民币走强不利于出口众所周知，有观点认为人民币升值有利于抑制大宗商品价格上涨，但这并非良方。如果未来全球真的出现了通胀，现在升值就会失去通过汇率政策降低进口通胀的空间。
On the one hand, the strengthening of the renminbi is not conducive to exports, as is well known, and the argument that the appreciation of the renminbi is conducive to curbing the rise in commodity prices is not a good solution. If there is real global inflation in the future, the appreciation will now lose the space to reduce import inflation through exchange-rate policies.
当然，如果美国通胀压力进一步上升，有可能取消部分针对中国进口商品的关税，这自然有利于人民币升值，但是美国通胀也意味着美国经济复苏强劲，美国国债收益率上升，而这也是有利于美元的。此外，在拜登的美国就业和家庭计划争取国会批准之前，美国政府不太可能撤销对中国进口商品的关税。
Of course, if the US inflationary pressure rises further, it will be possible to eliminate some of the tariffs on Chinese imports, which will naturally benefit the renminbi, but inflation in the US also means a strong recovery in the US economy and an increase in the rate of return on US national debt, which will also benefit the US dollar. Moreover, the US government is unlikely to lift tariffs on Chinese imports until Biden’s US employment and family program is approved by Congress.
另外一方面，我们要看到美元兑人民币6.3是过去几年美元汇率的一个低点，在2018初短暂跌破后就持续回升。2017年全球经济复苏下美元贬值，而2018年全球经济放缓美元升值，这些都符合历史上美元的规律。
On the other hand, we would like to see that the dollar against the renminbi 6.3 is a low of the dollar’s exchange rate over the past few years, which continued to rebound after a brief fall at the beginning of 2018. The depreciation of the dollar following the global economic recovery in 2017 and the slowdown in the dollar’s appreciation in 2018 are consistent with the historical pattern of the dollar.
目前来看，在疫情对全球的影响下，美国经济表现好于预期，同时也好于其他发达经济体，美元指数易升难跌。只有等到全球经济都进入到复苏状态，美元才会回归贬值周期。
At present, the US economy is performing better than expected in terms of the global impact of the epidemic, as well as in other advanced economies, and the dollar index is likely to rise and fall. The dollar will not return to depreciation until the global economy is in a state of recovery.
值得一提的是，近期投资者对人民币升值的预期很大程度上受到了央行官员在上个月莫干山会议的讲话观点鼓励，核心主张是将来人民币国际化，中长期里，人民币汇率会相对美元持续升值。随后，一位经济杂文家关于人民币汇率可能在2024年升值到3的观点广为传播，引发一些人考虑抛售美元。
It is worth noting that recent expectations of investors’ appreciation of the renminbi have been largely encouraged by statements made by central bank officials at last month’s meeting in Mohan Hill, the central argument being that the renminbi will be internationalized in the future, and that the renminbi’s exchange rate will continue to appreciate relative to the dollar in the medium to long term. Subsequently, the view of an economic scribe that the renminbi’s exchange rate could increase to 3 in 2024 was widely disseminated, prompting some to consider selling the dollar.
我已经在《为什么夸张的人民币汇率预测会广为传播？》一文点评了这个观点。我对“持续“两字有所保留，大家也要清楚“中长期”在经济和政策的语境下，可能是3-5年后，也可能是5-10年后。我特别强调了，在短期和中长期内，汇率都是难以预测的。
I have already commented on this point in "Why the Exaggeration of the renminbi Exchange Rate Forecasts? ". I have reservations about the word “continuing” and I want you to know that the “medium- and long-term” is in the economic and policy context, probably three to five years later, or 5 to 10 years later. I stressed, in particular, that exchange rates are difficult to predict in the short and medium- and long-term.
就在本周三，全国外汇市场自律机制第七次工作会议在北京召开。会议认为，
Just this Wednesday, the seventh working session of the National Self-Regulation Mechanism for Foreign Exchange Markets was held in Beijing.
“当前外汇市场总体平衡。未来，影响汇率的市场因素和政策因素很多，人民币既可能升值，也可能贬值。没有任何人可以准确预测汇率走势。不论是短期还是中长期，汇率测不准是必然，双向波动是常态，不论是政府、机构还是个人，都要避免被预测结论误导。
In the future, there are many market and policy factors affecting exchange rates, and the renminbi may either appreciate or depreciate. No one can accurately predict exchange rate movements.
以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度适合中国国情，应当长期坚持。在这一汇率制度下，汇率不能作为工具，既不能用来贬值刺激出口，也不能用来升值抵消大宗商品价格上涨影响。关键是管理好预期，坚决打击各种恶意操纵市场、恶意制造单边预期的行为。”
A system of managed floating exchange rates based on market supply and demand, regulated by reference to a basket of currencies, is appropriate to China’s circumstances and should be maintained for the long term. Under this exchange rate regime, exchange rates cannot be used as a tool to stimulate exports by devaluation or to offset the impact of commodity price rises by appreciation.
总而言之，我们始终坚持建议大家理性投资，应该以长期投资的预期收益，进出口的成本和预期收益，以及生活实际需要来引导外汇交易。即使配置比特币这类高风险资产，也要限制仓位，回避杠杆。对于通过SPAC上市的企业，不要单纯依靠合并前的价格走势判断未来走势，要回归到宏观和上市企业所属行业进行基本面分析，更关键的是理解上市企业自身的财务表现和未来发展前景。
To sum up, we have always insisted on rational investment that should guide foreign-exchange transactions with the expected returns on long-term investments, the costs of imports and exports, and the real needs of life. Even if high-risk assets such as Bitcoins are deployed, they should limit the position and avoid leverage.
（作者为诺亚首席经济学家）
(authored by Noah's Chief Economist)
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