中新财经6月22日报道，“人在币圈混，三天饿九顿。”这句调侃正在虚拟货币投资圈应验。
On June 22, China's new bank accounts reported that “people are mixed up in currency circles and are hungry for nine meals for three days.” The quote is being read in the virtual currency investment circle.
近日，世界第一大虚拟货币比特币一路暴跌，至6月19日跌破1.8万美元关口，并探至两年来最低。尽管21日币值小幅回升至2.1万美元附近，但与去年11月6.9万美元的峰值还有很大差距。
In recent days, the world’s largest virtual currency, Bitcoin, has plunged all the way down to the close of $18,000 on 19 June, and has found its lowest in two years. Despite a small recovery in the value of the 21st yen to around $210,000, there is still a significant gap with the peak of $690 million last November.
有网友表示，钱比水蒸发得都快，虚拟货币就是一场击鼓传花的“降智游戏”。真是这样吗？
Some online users say that money evaporates faster than water, and virtual currency is a game of mind that beats flowers. Is that so?
比特币近一月价格走势。数据来源：Investing.com
Bitcoin's price trends in the month of January. Data source: Investing.com
“华人首富”身家蒸发5800亿人民币
<580 billion yuan > >. >.............................................................................................................................................
“如果现在抛售一枚在最高值6.9万美元买入的比特币，要亏4.9万美元（约合人民币32万元），够买一辆特斯拉Model3了。”有人惊叹。
“If a bitcoin purchased at a maximum value of $69,000 is to be sold now, $490,000 (approximately $320,000) would be enough to buy a Tesla Model3.” It was astonished.
历史级的亏损率导致玩家损失惨重，有人戏称比特币富豪们正“一夜返贫”。据彭博亿万富翁指数，从去年11月比特币价格的“高光时刻”到如今，与加密货币有关的七位亿万富翁总共损失了1140亿美元。
History-class losses have led to heavy losses for players, with some claiming that the Bitcoin billionaires are “one night back from poverty.” According to the Bloomberg Billionaire Index, seven billionaires associated with encrypted currencies have lost $114 billion from the “high light hour” of Bitcoin prices last November to the present day.
身家“瘦身”最明显的就是去年底以近960亿美元身家登顶华人首富的世界最大加密货币交易所币安（Binance）创办人赵长鹏。随着比特币大溃退，截至6月15日，赵长鹏身家今年已经暴跌89.3%，蒸发了856亿美元（约5800亿人民币）。
One of the most obvious examples of “skinners” at the end of last year was the founder of the world’s largest encrypted currency exchange, Binance, with nearly $96 billion in top Chinese. With the collapse of Bitcoins, Zhao’s family fell by 89.3% this year, evaporating by $85.6 billion (approximately RMB 5800 billion).
作为比特币的知名持有者，特斯拉也在这波行情中亏损严重。数据显示，特斯拉目前持有43200个比特币，价值9.68亿美元，投资比特币已经亏损约5.3亿美元。
As a well-known holder of Bitcoin, Tesla also suffered significant losses in this wave. The data show that Tesla currently holds 43,200 bitcoins valued at $968 million, and that the investment in bitcoins has already lost about $530 million.
更有甚者，将比特币作为法定货币的国家——萨尔瓦多因比特币币值缩水面临巨大的金融风险。萨尔瓦多政府此前陆续买入了2301枚比特币。
Moreover, El Salvador, a country that has adopted bitcoin as the legal currency, faces a huge financial risk of contracting bitcoin. The Salvadoran government has purchased 2301 bitcoins.
nayibtracker.com数据显示，萨尔瓦多的购币总成本为1.05亿美元，平均购买价格近4.6万美元/枚。按照最新的币价（20453.57美元），萨尔瓦多持有的比特币已经浮亏55.45%。
Data from Nayibracker.com show that El Salvador has a total purchase cost of $105 million, with an average purchase price of nearly $46,000/me. At the latest currency price (US$ 20453.57), El Salvador has already lost 55.45 per cent of its currency.
谁让加密货币“掉落神坛”？
Who made the encrypted currency drop the altar?
事实上，经历暴跌浩劫的不仅是比特币，多种加密货币都不乐观。如，第二大加密货币——以太坊在6月18日跌破1000美元，回到了“三位数”时代，最低触及880美元。市值曾高达410亿美元的luna币，此前也出现跳水式贬值，价格从近90美元跌至不足0.0001美元。
In fact, it is not just bitcoins that have been devastated, but a number of encrypted currencies that are not optimistic. For example, the second largest encrypted currency – the Ethernos fell by $1,000 on June 18 – returned to the “three-digit” era, touching at least $880.
多方分析指出，通胀居高不下和多国央行加息激发了投资者对经济衰退的担忧，金融市场避险需求上升，大量资本流出比特币等加密货币市场，导致价格近期大幅下跌。
According to multiple analyses, high inflation and interest hikes by multinational central banks have raised investor concerns about the recession, rising demand for bailouts in financial markets and large capital outflows out of encrypted currency markets, such as Bitcoin, have led to a sharp fall in prices in the recent past.
更令人担忧的是，在资本退场的阴霾下，近期，一些投资者无法从部分加密货币交易所提取资金，导致对于虚拟货币流动性的恐慌更为剧烈。
Even more worrying is the fact that, in recent times, some investors have been unable to draw funds from partially encrypted currency exchanges in the shadow of capital withdrawal, leading to heightened panic over virtual currency liquidity.
如，Binance上周暂停了几个小时的比特币提款，称是因为部分交易卡顿；拥有170万用户的加密货币借贷巨头Celsius也宣称，受“极端市场条件”影响，该公司将暂停账户之间的所有提款、互换和转账。
For example, Binance suspended its Bitcoin withdrawal for several hours last week, claiming that it was part of a deal with Carton, and Celsius, a condensed currency-lending giant with 1.7 million users, claimed that it would suspend all withdrawals, swaps and transfers between accounts, subject to “extreme market conditions”.
那么，低到冰点的比特币是抄底机会吗？比特币交易所Swan的分析师Sam Callahan认为，根据之前熊市的经验，比特币可能会从历史高点下跌80%以上。这意味着比特币将跌至13800美元。
So, is the bitcoin below the ice point a chance to copy it down? Sam Callahan, an analyst at the Bitcoin Exchange Swan, argued that, based on previous experience in Bear City, bitcoins could fall by more than 80% from historical heights. That means that bitcoins would fall to $13,800.
此外，按照历史经验，比特币大跌后常有大量资金进场试图抄底，但现在资金流动却是相反的，这些资金眼下也偏向于继续撤离加密币市场。
Moreover, based on historical experience, after the fall of Bitcoins, there are often large amounts of money entering the field in an attempt to cut the bottom, but now the flow of money is the opposite, and these funds are in favour of continuing to withdraw from the crypto-currency market.
不过，也有一些期待市场能恢复稳定的资深玩家们仍在摇旗呐喊，比如马斯克19日发文力挺其一直钟爱的狗狗币，狗狗币价格也应声拉升了8%。但是，算上反弹后，狗狗币年初至今累计跌幅仍超60%。
However, there are also senior players who are still calling for a return to stability in the market, such as Musk’s 19-day protagonists, who were able to raise the price of the dog price by 8%. After the rebound, however, the dog’s currency has fallen by more than 60% since the beginning of the year.
狗狗币联合创始人杰克森·帕尔默（Jackson Palmer）最近也在采访中表示，加密货币“纸牌屋”的底部已经“开始崩溃”。
In a recent interview, Jackson Palmer, founder of the dog-coins coalition, also stated that the bottom of the encrypted currency card house had “started to collapse”.
资料图：美元。中新财经 宫宏宇 摄
Source: United States dollars.
比特币是“搏傻”游戏？
"Strong" Bitcoin is a "dumb" game?
比特币本轮突然暴跌让其运行的底层逻辑再一次遭遇质疑。
The bottom logic of its operation was once again called into question by the sudden collapse of the Bitcoin wheel.
加密货币的“头号反对者”巴菲特曾表示，比特币不是一项生产性资产，也不会产生任何有形的东西。存在于虚拟世界的加密数字资产市场面对危机时往往弱不禁风，任何一个负面事件都会被放大。
Buffett, the “first opposition” to encrypted money, has said that Bitcoin is not a productive asset, nor does it produce anything tangible. The market for encrypted digital assets in the virtual world is often weak in the face of crisis, and any negative event is magnified.
巴菲特也直言，就算全世界所有的比特币总价只要25美元，他也不会买。
Buffett also said that even if all the bitcoins in the world were worth $25, he wouldn't buy them.
6月14日，微软创始人比尔·盖茨出席活动时称，加密货币项目是基于“博傻理论”（greater fool theory）的骗局。即只要找到一个更傻的人去接手投资者的资产，就算资产是分文不值的垃圾，投资者也能赚钱。
On June 14, Microsoft’s founder, Bill Gates, said that the encryption money project was based on a fraud based on the “greater fool theory.” Investors could make money by finding someone more stupid to take over investors’ assets, even if the assets were worthless garbage.
毋庸置疑，大多数比特币玩家入场时都怀揣着赚钱的想法，毕竟这个领域存在太多“造富”的神话。不过，比特币突如其来的大跌再度昭示着虚拟世界潜在的巨大风险。
There is no doubt that most Bitcoin players enter with the idea of making money, after all, and that there are too many “rich” myths in this area. But the sudden fall of Bitcoin once again brings with it the potentially huge risks of the virtual world.
中国政府明确禁止以比特币为首的加密货币交易活动。2021年7月，央行曾发布公告称，广大消费者应增强风险意识，不参与虚拟货币交易炒作活动，不盲目跟风虚拟货币相关投机行为，谨防个人财产及权益受损。
In July 2021, the Central Bank issued a circular stating that consumers should be more risk-aware, should not be involved in virtual currency transactions, should not blindly follow speculation related to virtual currency, and should guard against the erosion of personal property and interests.
编辑：张娟
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