前言
Foreword
因为本文涉及到一些比较敏感的话题，因此做付费阅读处理，想在币圈玩赚钱又担心风险的，这篇文章具备很高的参考价值。
has a very high reference value because it deals with more sensitive topics and therefore pays to read and to play in currency circles for money and risk.
在打开本文链之后，首先你要确定一个问题，那就是：
确定玩，而不是不玩 既然你点击进来，那就表明了你的态度，就是”我要玩“！ If you click in, it shows your attitude, "I'm going to play!" 那么接下来要怎么玩? So what's the next game? 先来让我们盘点一下近期的ZC方向，我从几个方面来谈： 国内ZC层面； Domestic ZC level; 全球动向； Global movement; 新资本、新玩法、新逻辑 New Capital, New Play, New Logic 1）国内方面： 1) At the domestic level: 9月初，发布了十个部委的红头文件，也就是”9.24“文件的落地； , in early September, 10 ministerial redhead papers were released, i.e. "9.24" documents landed; 税务系统对虚拟货币征税； Tax system taxes virtual currency; 央行认定虚拟币交易属于非法金融活动； Central Bank considers virtual currency transactions to be illegal financial activities; 公安部门严厉打击数字货币新型犯罪； Public security services severely combat new forms of digital currency crime; 发改委将挖矿列入淘汰落后产能； ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; 以上是不同监管部门对同一个行业的不同监管政策。 above is the different regulatory policies of different regulators for the same sector. 对我们普通投资者的影响： Impact on our ordinary investors: 1）出入金变的麻烦了； 1) Trouble with access to gold; 2）一些常用软件比如非小号，aicoin看盘软件都不好用了； 2) some of the most commonly used software, such as aicoin viewing software, are not working well; 3）微信群等社交软件高度风控，被封号的微信群、微信号； 3) Social software such as micro-message with high wind control, sealed micro-message, micro-signals; 4）支付手段受限（支付工具，交易所）； 4) Restricted means of payment (payment instruments, exchange); 5）矿工被迫出海（去美国，哈萨克斯坦，新加坡等等） 5) Miners forced to go to sea (United States, Kazakhstan, Singapore, etc.) 6）国内明面上不存在数字货币生存土壤。 6) There is no digital currency survival soil in the country. 其实以上政策对交易所的影响很大，不管海外还是海内的公司都不可以对国人开展业务了；对于普通投资者来说还说，虽然矿工出海，无非是成本增加，象一些财经类媒体也做不下去了。但对于普通投资者来说基本影响不大，因为国家对数字货币定性是商品，持币无罪，你可以收藏，可以交换。其实过去我们国家对一些事务的整顿一直针对从业者而不是参与者，例如之前的P2P，不管你赚钱还是亏钱，都不去追究。 In fact, the above-mentioned policy has had a great impact on the exchange, as companies abroad and in the sea can no longer operate against nationals; for ordinary investors, it is also said that although miners go out to sea, there is no more cost than some financial media can do. But it has little impact on ordinary investors, because the country characterizes digital money as a commodity and has no money, so you can collect it, and you can exchange it. In fact, in the past, our country's reorganization of some matters has been directed against practitioners rather than participants, such as the previous P2P, whether you make money or you lose money. 那么我们普通的投资人到底该如何呢？ What about our ordinary investors? 1）出入金变的麻烦了；交易所出入金被卡怎么办？ 1) Trouble with access to gold; what about exchange entry and exit cards? 我们知道火币发的公告是12.31之后不再对中国大陆提供服务，包括衍生品，刚刚过去的10.28合约已经停止了，现在的都是现货交易。 时间充足，不必过分恐慌： Enough time to panic too much: 现在市场上很多人有点过于恐惧，其实还有充足的两个月，到时候你是放钱包还是继续放交易所，都没有必要那么着急。 There's a lot of people in the market right now who are a little too scared, and there's a lot of two months left, and there's no need to be in such a hurry if you keep your wallet or if you keep the exchange. 从业者更关心这一块市场 practitioners are more interested in this market 事实上从业者更关心这一块业务，象赵东，几次玩合约爆仓，最终都是靠otc翻身，这块的市场很庞大，每年的交易额至少有几万亿美元。这也类似银行家的业务，火币不做，币安不做，自然有人来做。只是现在还没有到时间，技术这些都要进行处理。到时候自然会有人来做这块市场。 As a matter of fact, practitioners are more concerned about this business, like Zhao Dong, with several contract busts, all of which end up on otc, a huge market with at least a trillion dollars a year. It's also like bankers' business where the gun doesn't do it, money doesn't do it, people do it. It's just not time, technology does it. Someone will do it. . 回归原始的第三方担保OTC returns to the original third-party guarantee OTC 先来回答一个问题： answers a question: 没有了中心化交易所的OTC,就交易不了虚拟货币了吗？ 各位可以回忆一下，在最早2017年之前大家怎么买加密货币？这个市场说白了就是买方，卖方和担保方。虚拟货币是个商品，你愿意拿现金去交换，又信得过对方，这就是之前的市场。 You can remember how people buy encrypted money before 2017 at the earliest? The market is the buyer, the seller, and the guarantor. Virtual money is a commodity. You're willing to exchange cash and trust each other. This is the previous market. 我一直反复跟一些伙伴讲，现在时间还早，即便到时候真的无法在那些中心化交易所OTC了，最多就回到比较原始的那种状态。只不过有了中心化交易所的OTC效率提升了很多，当大家习惯了高效率就不太愿意使用过去的低效率。 I keep telling some of my partners that it's still early, even if it's not possible to go back to the more primitive state of the central exchange OTC. It's just that the efficiency of the central exchange has improved a lot, and when you get used to it, you don't want to use the inefficiency of the past. 2）原来常用的软件都用不了了怎么办？ What if the original software doesn't work? mytokencap.com这个可以用来替代下，不用FQ就可以上去了。这个其实最早与非小号可以号称双雄，只不过后来老板把这个平台卖给了交易所，用心程度不如之前，现在倒是给其一个新机会。 mytokencap.com > could be replaced by an FQ instead. This was actually the first to be called a two-boy, but the boss sold the platform to the exchange and gave it a new chance now. 至于原来的那些自己去找个FQ软件还是没问题的。 3）微信群等社交软件高度风控，被封号的微信群、微信号； 3) Social software such as micro-message with high wind control, sealed micro-message, micro-signals; 钉钉相对来说还好、telegram、diccord基本这些都够用了。飞书也可以，字节跳动搞的。 nails are relatively good, telegram and diccord are basically enough. The flybooks can also, byte beat. 4）支付手段受限（支付工具，交易所）； 4) Restricted means of payment (payment instruments, exchange); 正常交易没有什么问题，不要去备注什么，控制好金额和出金方式。小额不要用银行卡，不然被封得不偿失，大金额走大客户方式。还有一些其他小技巧，比如直接还到信用卡什么的，不要与日常卡混用，单独一张卡来做这个事情。 There's nothing wrong with regular transactions. Don't worry about it. Don't use a bank card for a small amount, or it'll be closed for no loss or a large amount of money. There are other small techniques, such as a credit card or something. Don't mix it with a daily card. 5）矿工被迫出海（去美国，哈萨克斯坦，新加坡等等） 5) Miners forced to go to sea (United States, Kazakhstan, Singapore, etc.) 矿机这块分几种，能耗机比如比特币以太坊，这些比较耗电；宽带机比如Filecoin这些完全可以迁移到离国内比较近的地方。 The pieces of the mine are several, the power-consuming ones, like Bitcoin, are more electricity-consuming; the broadband machines, like Filecoin, can be moved closer to home. 6）国内明面上不存在数字货币生存土壤。 6) There is no digital currency survival soil in the country. 这块没有什么好说的，大家都懂得。 There's nothing to say about this. Everyone knows it. 2）全球层面： 2) Global level: 先来说下萨尔瓦多，这个国家的总统其实本来在国内的声望不是太高，经常有些反对派，但是经历了7，8月之后在国内的声望日隆。我之前也写过关于萨尔瓦多总统的的一些文章： Let's start with El Salvador, where the president of the country was actually not too prestigious in the country, often with some opposition, but after July, August, he was very popular in the country. I have also written a number of articles about the President of El Salvador: . 布克莱，年轻的80后国家总统，即将封神 Buclay, young 80-year-old president of the country, will be crowned . 对于这种弱主权的国家来说，实在忍受够了美元的无休止的收割。全球范围来说，每个国家有强弱，但是主权国家地位平等，这是全球第一个主权国家宣布把比特币列为法币。 endures an endless harvest of dollars for this weakly sovereign nation. On a global scale, each country is strong and weak, but sovereign states are equal, the first sovereign nation in the world to declare bitcoin as French coins. 巴西也在随后宣布成立主权国家基金，持有比特币；俄罗斯总统也说比特币可以用于结算，欧洲、美国都在拥抱数字货币，还有20几亿的Facebook改名。 Brazil subsequently announced the establishment of a sovereign state fund with bitcoin; the Russian President also said that bitcoin could be used for settlement, Europe and the United States were hugging digital currency, and there were 20 billion Facebook changes. 一场席卷全球的数字货币风暴已经来临，这也就是我们开头先说的你要确定自己还玩不玩？你不玩还有其他人玩，不差你一个。 3）新资本、新玩法、新逻辑： 3) New capital, new game, new logic: 以上种种变化是过去几十年所没有的，对于每一个加密货币市场的玩家来说要以更加开放的心态与全球玩家共舞，与全球玩家保持同频，积极融入社交渠道，比如telegram、discord、推特等等。这也要求我们每一个玩家保持学习心态。 The changes described above have not been made in the last few decades. For every player in the crypto-currency market, dance with a global player with a more open mind, keep the same frequency as a global player, actively integrate into social channels such as telegram, discord, Twitter, etc. 很多币圈的玩家还整日研究K线+消息面，其实这是很低端的“炒币思维”；现在的玩法已经变成了投研思维，这是一种更高维度的，不同赛道、经济模型、行业地位去做专业分析。 players in a lot of currency circles study K-line plus news all day, which is actually a low-end “fiction thinking”; now the game has turned into an introspection, a higher dimension, with different paths, economic models, industry positions for professional analysis. 比如Dex平台币，uni、sunshi、dydx等，这些早期参与投研的都收获颇丰。 such as Dex Platform Currency, uni, sunshi, dydx, etc., all these early participants have been very successful. 投研要求较高，英文水平不差，对行业赛道分布有深刻认知，对前沿项目有一定的前瞻性、在相对早期去介入。这种是用行业底层逻辑去看待项目，而不是用赌的心态。 is highly demanding, English is not bad, there is a deep understanding of the distribution of trade tracks, and there is some forward-looking, relatively early intervention in front-line projects. This is a bottom-of-the-industry logic rather than a gambling mentality. 投研这块我们普通人也可以简单判断下，具体可以看我的文章： "Font" is a piece that we ordinary people can judge simply by reading my article: . 如何修炼具备捕获百倍币的火眼金睛？ How can refine fire-eye gold with a hundred-dollar catch? 钱包的使用都要学会，比如metamask、imtoken、tokenpocket、bitkeep、麦子、币信、比特派等等，切记一定要用官方网站下载，不要轻易玩来路不明的dapp，不要轻易给未知的dapp授权，授权之后不用即时取消，扫码转账的时候，要重复确认对方地址而非第三方链，不要轻易相信送上门的空投。保存好助记词和私钥，只有你自己能知道。 The use of 还有专家，老牌的庄家比如ICO、项目盘圈、交易所也算，公链还有各种矿币；新的庄家比如NFT、元宇宙、DeFi等，最NB的是SOL这个公链，配置了中心化的交易所FTX，做的风生水起。 also includes experts, old-fashioned dealers like ICO, project circles, exchanges, public chains and various mineral coins; new dealers like NFT, Yuan cosmos, DeFi, and, most importantly, SOL, a public chain with a centralized exchange FTX. 其实对于庄家来说，给市场送钱是最好的造热度，拉盘也是最好的营销。这有点象传统行业厂商，省掉了产品投放的环节，专门用钱去做营销渠道。 "font" is actually the best heat for the dealer to send to the market, and the best marketing. It's kind of like a traditional trader, saving the product's input and using it for marketing channels. 爆炸头的SOL+FTX做的比较成功，生态起来了。这也就是新资本用巨额资金投入，点燃存量市场，炸响增量市场，以谋求在行业内的生态位置。 SOL+FTX, the explosive head of the , is relatively successful and ecologic. This means that the new capital is invested in huge amounts of money to light up the stock market and blow up the incremental market in order to find an ecological position within the industry. 资本，机构都在进场，牛市不会象过去几年前的2017年一阵风似的风消云散，这点是没有什么可怀疑的。 There's nothing to doubt that the capital of , the institutions are on the field, and the cow market will not dissipate like it was in 2017, just a few years ago. 
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