作者邹传伟，万向区块链首席经济学家
以下观点整理自邹传伟在中国宏观经济论坛（CMF）宏观经济热点问题研讨会（第20期）上的发言。
The following is a compilation of the contributions of Zou Wei Wei to the China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF) Workshop on Macroeconomic Hotspots (No. 20).
对央行数字货币的界定？
Definition of Central Bank Digital Currency?
央行数字货币（CBDC）有批发型和零售型之分。批发型的央行数字货币普通民众在现实里感受不到，因为它只用于中央银行和商业银行之间，且解决的是中央银行管理下批发支付系统的效率提升问题；它的应用场景也都是批发性的金融交易，如券款对付和跨境同步交收等。因此，它对目前的货币体系不会产生较大影响，新加坡的Ubin和加拿大的Jasper项目等已为此做过多轮测试。数字人民币等可以被普通民众感受到的属于零售型央行数字货币，由民众在日常生活中使用。
Central banks’ digital currencies (CBDCs) are wholesale and retail. Whole-sized central banks’ digital currencies are not felt by ordinary people in reality, because they are used only between central banks and commercial banks, and address the efficiency enhancement of the wholesale payment system managed by central banks; their applications are also wholesale financial transactions, such as bond processing and simultaneous cross-border payments.
简单来说，法定货币的未来形态，除了民众钱包里的钞票，未来还会出现手机钱包里的数字人民币。它是货币形态的变化，但背后的信用仍是中央银行的信用，其价值和目前的现金是完全等价的。对于使用范围，凡是能用现金、银行卡或第三方支付的地方，理论上都可以使用数字人民币。除此之外，数字人民币具有更好的金融普惠特征，即可以不依托于银行账户存在，开放性更好。现在我国还有很多人没有银行账户，成为所谓的“不被金融体系服务的人”，而数字人民币不需要银行账户作为载体，实现更好的金融普惠效果。理论上，它还可以被方便地用于跨境支付中，如境外用户使用数字人民币支付会比开设人民币存款账户方便得多。
In short, the future shape of the legal currency, in addition to the banknotes in the purses of the people, will be followed by a digital renminbi in the wallets. It is a change in currency patterns, but the credit behind it remains the credit of the Central Bank, whose value and current cash are fully equivalent. For the scope of use, digital renminbi is theoretically available wherever cash, bank cards, or third parties can be used. In addition, digital renminbi has a better financial inclusion, i.e. it can be made less dependent on bank accounts and more open. There are now many people in the country who do not have bank accounts and become so-called &ldquao; those who are not served by the financial system & & rdqua; and the digital renminbi does not need a bank account as a vehicle to achieve better financial inclusion.
央行数字货币对现有货币政策、金融稳定和宏观经济的影响？
The impact of the central bank's digital currency on existing monetary policy, financial stability and macroeconomics?
这个问题非常复杂，国际上也有长期讨论。从全球研究和实践看，对央行数字货币的共识已逐渐浮现。
The issue is complex and has been discussed internationally for a long time. From global research and practice, consensus on central banks’ digital currencies has emerged.
央行数字货币属于中央银行货币范畴，其中零售型央行数字货币替代现金，批发型央行数字货币和存款准备金是同等地位的。央行数字货币的发行模式是一个关键问题，包括我国在内的主要国家的央行数字货币都属于“按需兑换”的方式，即基于100%准备金发行，发行过程中对中央银行的资产负债表仅有内部结构调整，并不会有扩表发行的效果。我认为，不论从理论上还是从实际操作上，央行数字货币将来延伸到M1、M2的可能性非常小。
Central bank digital currencies fall within the category of central bank currencies, in which retail central bank digital currencies replace cash, with wholesale central bank digital currencies and deposit reserves on an equal footing. The distribution model of central bank digital currencies is a key issue, with the central bank digital currencies of major countries, including my own, falling into “ conversion to & & rdquo on demand; and in a way that, based on 100% of reserves, the distribution process involves only internal restructuring of the central bank’s balance sheet and does not have the effect of expanding it. I think that, theoretically or operationally, it is very unlikely that the central bank’s digital currency will extend to M1 and M2 in the future. & nbsp;
央行数字货币对金融稳定和货币政策的影响是一个很复杂的问题，主要取决于它是一元模式还是二元模式。一元模式是指中央银行直接向公众发行央行数字货币，这对商业银行的影响非常大。目前看，各国央行数字货币发行基本上都收敛到了二元模式，即从中央银行到商业银行，再到公众。这里面可能有“批发—零售”关系，也可能没有。总而言之，中央银行在试图降低央行数字货币对商业银行的冲击。
The impact of central banks’ digital currency on financial stability and monetary policy is complex, depending mainly on whether it is a monist or a binary model. The monist model refers to the direct distribution of central banks’ digital currency to the public, which has a very strong impact on commercial banks.
可否通过央行数字货币实现负利率，甚至把央行数字货币利率作为新的货币政策工具？从国际实践来看，不管是批发型还是零售型央行数字货币，普遍倾向于不付息。此外，即使有零售型央行数字货币，现金也会和它长期共同存在。这种情况下，如果对央行数字货币实现负利率，可能会出现严重的现金挤兑问题。
Could negative interest rates be achieved through central banks’ digital currencies, or even using central banks’ digital currency rates as a new monetary policy tool? In international practice, whether wholesale or retail central banks’ digital currencies are generally inclined to pay no interest.
以上讨论了央行数字货币的货币经济学的属性。央行数字货币还有技术上很多新属性。这些技术属性尽管在经济学界讨论得不多，但实际上是央行数字货币里面非常核心的问题，对货币和支付系统以及金融稳定和金融监管的影响都非常大。
The characteristics of the monetary economy of central banks’ digital currencies are discussed above. There are many new technical attributes to central banks’ digital currencies. These technical attributes, although not much discussed in the economics world, are actually very central to central banks’ digital currencies, with significant implications for monetary and payment systems, as well as for financial stability and financial regulation.
央行数字货币有Token型和账户型之分。Token型也被称为代币型或价值型。比特币、Libra（已改名为Diem）和很多国家的央行数字货币属于Token型，怎么理解这个概念？Token型本质是在数字世界里实现既类似于现金，又超越现金的特性。当然，Token型央行数字货币的价值基础是“基于100%的准备金发行”。接下来，从几个维度讨论账户型和Token型的区别。
The Token, Libra (renamed Diem), and the central bank’s digital currencies in many countries are the Token type. The Token character is to achieve a digital world that is both similar to and beyond cash. Of course, the Token value base of the central bank’s digital currency is & ldquo; a 100% reserve distribution & & rdquo; and next, the difference between the account and the Token type is discussed from several dimensions.
第一个维度是管理方式。无论是银行账户还是第三方支付账户货币都是中心化管理的，用户要自证身份，如提供身份证信息和手机号等。Token型实际上可以实现去中心化管理，用户只需证明自己知晓某些特定信息，比如密码学里面的私钥。这就是今天我们讨论央行数字货币用于金融普惠的基础，因为它可以和银行账户松耦合，开放程度更高。
The first dimension of is management. , whether bank accounts or third-party payment accounts, is centrally managed, and users are required to identify themselves, such as providing identification information and cell numbers. The Token type can actually be decentralised, and users simply need to prove that they know certain specific information, such as the private key in cryptography. This is the basis on which we are discussing the use of central bank digital money for financial inclusion today, because it can be looser and more open to bank accounts.
第二个维度是实名制要求。当前金融系统均实行实名制，尽管有ｌ类、Ⅱ类和Ⅲ类账户之分，但都在实名制的范畴。这就造成了互联网支付情境中，互联网平台可以通过支付获取用户信息，造成现在讨论比较多的数据垄断问题。Token型可以实现可控匿名特征，虽然它的匿名特征比现金要差一些，但比银行账户和第三方支付要好一些，这对普通民众是一种匿名性的保护。
The second dimension of is the real name requirement. The current financial system of has a real name system, and although there are accounts in categories I, II and III, it is in the real name category. This creates an Internet payment situation in which the Internet platform can access user information through payments, resulting in a greater degree of data monopoly being discussed. The Token type allows for controlled anonymity, although it is less anonymous than cash, but better than bank accounts and third-party payments, which is an anonymous protection for ordinary people.
第三个维度是交易层级。在账户型中，交易是分层级的。比如，跨行转账涉及两家商业银行之间的交易，而这要通过调整它们在中央银行的账户来进行。但在Token型中，理论上任何两个人之间都可以直接点对点交易，交易是天然跨境的，这是今天讨论Token型央行数字货币用于跨境支付的基础。
For example, cross-line transfers involve transactions between two commercial banks, which are carried out by adjusting their accounts in the central bank. In the Token type, however, any two people can theoretically deal directly at the point where the transaction is natural across borders, which is the basis for today’s discussion of the Token-type central bank digital currency for cross-border payments.
以上这些技术属性会影响央行数字货币作为金融普惠工具，作为隐私保护工具，以及作为跨境支付工具等方面应用。技术上的变化会带来非常丰富的政策意义，值得高度重视。
These technical attributes affect the application of central banks’ digital money as a financial inclusion tool, as a privacy protection tool, and as a cross-border payment tool. Changes in technology bring a very rich policy significance that deserves great attention.
目前来看，批发型央行数字货币不会对货币政策和宏观政策造成很大的问题。目前世界上试验的批发型央行数字货币都应用了联盟链技术，一个主要目标是测试能否改进当前批发支付的实时全额结算系统（RTGS）。试验结果证明批发型央行数字货币能够支持实时全额结算，能够在去中心化环境里实现流动性节约机制（LSM）。如果将来证券也应用区块链技术，批发型央行数字货币在一定情况下也能够实现券款对付（DvP），以及两家中央银行之间的同步跨境转账（PvP）。如加拿大央行和新加坡金管局都使用批发型央行数字货币，它们联合实验表明，在一定情况下能够实现同步跨境转账。但跨境支付未来到底走批发型还是零售型央行数字货币方向，目前没有定论。我国的数字人民币也面临这个问题，相关问题还没有开始讨论。
Now, wholesale central bank digital money does not pose a major problem for monetary policy and macro-policy. The current world-tested wholesale central bank digital currency has applied alliance-chain technology. One of the main objectives is to test the possibility of improving the current wholesale total real-time settlement system (RTGS). The results of the tests prove that wholesale central bank digital money supports full-time settlements in real time, and that liquidity savings mechanisms can be achieved in a decentralized environment (LSM).
零售型央行数字货币有一个核心问题：中央银行、商业银行以及以第三方支付机构为代表的市场机构之间是什么样的关系？这个问题比较复杂，涉及到零售型央行数字货币清结算的制度安排，如何发挥私人部门的作用，以及境外用户将来如何持有和使用零售型央行数字货币等问题，有非常丰富的政策意义。
There is a central issue for retail central bank digital money: what is the relationship between central banks, commercial banks, and market institutions represented by third-party payment agencies? The issue is more complex, involving institutional arrangements for retail central bank digital currency clearing, how to play the role of the private sector, and how foreign users will hold and use retail central bank digital currency in the future.
目前批发型央行数字货币的研究测试较为充分，不会涉及特别复杂的货币经济学问题。相比之下，零售型央行数字货币是国际上研究热点，涉及的问题更复杂一些。根据国际清算银行的研究，零售型央行数字货币主要分为直接型、间接型和混合型，现在讨论比较多的是间接型或混合型，即商业银行直接面向公众，商业银行开展KYC（“了解你的用户”）审查，并处理零售支付，而批发支付环节由中央银行处理。这主要是为了缓解中央银行直接面对公众提供支付和清结算服务的系统压力。要在现实里推行零售型央行数字货币，必须要发挥市场机构的作用。
According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), retail central bank digital currency is divided mainly into direct, indirect, and hybrid types. Much is now discussed now, i.e., commercial banks are directed to the public, commercial banks conduct KYC (& ldquo; know your user & rdquo;) review and process retail payments, while wholesale payments are handled by central banks.
总体而言，零售型央行数字货币将带来零售支付的便利性，具备类似于现金的点对点支付功能，开放普惠特征更加明显，理论上可更好用于跨境支付等情境。间接型或混合型的方案设计有助于缓解中央银行的压力，也有助于调动市场机构的积极性，以更好地推广央行数字货币的应用。
In general, retail central bank digital currency will provide retail payment conveniences, have a point-to-point payment function similar to cash, and open inclusive features are more visible, which can theoretically be better used in situations like cross-border payments. Indirect or hybrid program design will help to ease the pressure on central banks, as well as mobilize market agency incentives to better promote the use of central bank digital currency.
数字货币未来的发展前景？
第一，与Big Tech的关系。最近不管是欧洲、美国还是中国，都在加强对Big Tech的监管，特别对Big Tech的金融科技业务。这个问题有几个细分维度。首先，数字人民币作为零售支付工具，会怎样改变零售支付市场格局，特别是对支付宝和微信等大平台有多大影响，是否会促进零售支付市场的公平竞争，这些都是很值得关注的问题。需要看到，目前我国的二维码收单体系和场景拓展前期主要由Big Tech公司建设，数字人民币在应用推广中需要充分利用这些基础工作。其次，如果未来数字人民币支付的全量数据只有中国人民银行才掌握，对基于大数据的信贷会造成什么样的影响，也尚待观察。
First, how the digital renminbi, as a retail payment tool, will change the pattern of retail payment markets, particularly with regard to large platforms such as payment treasures and micro-credits, and whether it will promote fair competition in the retail payment market. It is a matter of concern to see that the current two-dimensional billing system and the pre-scenario expansion of the country are largely built by Big Tech, and that the digital renminbi needs to be fully utilized in its application and promotion.
第二，数字人民币的钱包能否“从物”而不仅仅“从人”。目前数字人民币钱包由人来持有，但它是松耦合账户，理论上可以由物持有。中国人民银行已经在测试充电桩中数字人民币的使用。数字人民币的双离线支付功能和非接触式支付特点，比扫码支付更便于应用在物和物之间的支付中。未来数字人民币有没有可能在物联网或者各种智能设备网络里使用，进而形成一些新的经济学的问题，是有待观察的。
Second, whether the purse of the digital renminbi can “ from & rdquo; not just & & & rdquo; from person & & rdquo;. The wallet of the digital renminbi is currently held by people, but it is a pine-coup account, which can theoretically be held by objects. The People’s Bank of China has tested the use of the digital renminbi in charge posts.
第三，数字人民币有一定的可编程性。可编程性是现金不具备的优势。理论上，数字人民币可以加载一些智能合约应用，如在指定条件下向指定用户支付指定金额。这样的智能合约设定能够免除一些中介环节的影响。智能合约会对货币流通效率和货币完整性产生怎样的影响，也是一个值得研究的问题。
Theoretically, a digital renminbi can load a number of smart contract applications, such as the payment of specified amounts to specified users under specified conditions. Such an intelligent contract setting would avoid the influence of some intermediaries.
第四，人民币国际化问题。人民币国际化主要是制度问题，不是技术问题，但数字人民币会方便境外用户持有和使用人民币。将来，不同国家会推出各自的央行数字货币，再加上以Libra为代表的全球稳定币，它们都可以跨境流通，这就产生了标准协调和互联互通问题。国际清算银行牵头的几家中央银行已在开展这方面研究。
The internationalization of the renminbi is primarily an institutional, not a technical, issue, but the digital renminbi will facilitate the possession and use of the renminbi by foreign users. In the future, different countries will introduce their own central banks’ digital currencies, together with the global stable currency, represented by Libra, which will allow them to move across borders, creating problems of standard coordination and connectivity.
注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论