比特币最新行情分析下半年是否还能走牛再创新高

我们先从大周期来看，BTC周线，在21年11月出现新高之后，目前已经回调了5个月，最大跌幅52％

Let's start with the big cycle, the BTC perimeter, which, after a new high in November 21, has now returned for five months, with a maximum drop of 52 per cent.

自前顶69000到目前仍是长期下降趋势通道内运行，同时也是前期二底32950和34300构筑的中期上行通道内运行，两者形成夹角姿态，在做一个三角收敛

From the top of 69,000 to the present, it operates within a long-term downward trend corridor, as well as a medium-term uphill corridor built on 32950 and 34300 at the end of the previous period, both of which form a punctuated posture and are undergoing a triangulation process.

从历史上来看BTC一旦死叉破位，后面往往将进入一轮较长周期熊市或者阶段性熊市，每波跌幅都是比较大，2014年和2018年是全年熊市，前期缓跌后期加速回落，2020年3月则是短时间内大力下杀，强势洗盘后重新站上，后面启动新一轮牛市行情，所以目前在死叉破位的情况下，应以观望为主，谨防后续调整力度加强，等待重新突破站稳趋势压力。

Historically, when BTC has fallen, it has tended to enter a long cycle of bear or stage bear markets, with each wave falling more sharply, with the first slow fall accelerating its fall in 2014 and 2018, a short period of intensive killing in March 2020, and a new cycle of cattle in the back, so that, in the current situation of dead fork-breaking, it is important to guard against the intensification of follow-up adjustments pending a return to steady trend pressure.

研究历史可以发现，一旦两线高位死叉，往往说明前期这一轮牛市已经结束，后面一般就要进入维持数月之久的熊市行情，熊市行情不是只跌不涨，大大小小的超跌反弹有很多次，不过整体维持震荡向下的姿态。

The history of research shows that once the two-line high fork is over, it is often the end of the previous period, followed by a few months-long bear market, which has not only fallen, but has rebounded many times over a large and small number of times, although the overall position has been maintained downwards.

最终见真正大底区域一般需要快线修复至0轴一带，比如2014年熊底和2018年熊底，而目前两线依旧向下也未见拐头迹象，后面将有可能继续回落向0轴一带贴近。

Ultimately, the real bottom zone usually requires fast-line restoration to axis zero, such as the bear base in 2014 and the bear base in 2018, while the two lines are still down and there are no signs of turning around, with the possibility that they will continue to fall closer to axis zero.

如图所示最近一轮从高点48000下落至35500附近跌幅已达26％

The most recent drop from a high point of 48,000 to close to 35,500 has reached 26 per cent, as shown in the figure.

从技术面基本面来看极限变盘会在5月末，当然可能会提前变盘，关注后市方向选择。向下跌破大概率将测试前期二底支撑，注意风险，向上突破目前看可能性不大，月线级仍是空头趋势，周线20线死叉50线也是偏空行情 又一点点走向不太乐观的方向。这个月我们要继续追踪周线这个级别5月如果不能收复42500的话，下半年就比较难看到牛市了。也就是说，真正的下跌还未开始。

In terms of technical fundamentals, the capricious shift will be late in May, of course, with an early shift in focus on the post-market orientation. The drop-down margin will support the first two months of the pre-optimal period, pay attention to the risks, the up-front break is not likely, the lunar line is still empty, the 20-line dead-end 50 line is still an ablution, and a little less optimistic. This month, if we continue to track the level of the perimeter if we fail to recover 42,500 in May, it will be difficult to see the bull market in the second half of the year. That is, the real decline has not yet begun.

最后走过路过的帅哥美女们点点关注点点赞，祝大家遂心如意！

At the end of the trip, the good boys and girls pay attention and wish you all the best!