本文共字，预计阅读时间。
回首2016年，比特币的发展可谓精彩纷呈。2016年初比特币最低价到了2351元，到2017年初在火币网创下了历史最高价格8895元人民币，我们看到在整个2016年比特币进入了上升通道。
Back in 2016, the development of Bitcoin was remarkable. By early 2016, the lowest price was $2351, and by early 2017, the highest price in history was 8895 yuan in the currency network, and we saw Bitcoin enter the upward path throughout 2016.
虽然在6月、8月以及今年的年初分别有几次大的下跌，但是没能阻止比特币整个上升的趋势。除了复盘2016年的比特币行情外，本期“火币大家说”中，火币分析师高强结合行情为刚接触比特币的用户讲解了K线的基本分析、止盈止损的知识点。
Although there have been several major declines in June, August and early this year, it has not been possible to stop the overall rise in bitcoin. Apart from the redisk's 2016 bitcoins, in the current period, "the coins say", the gun price analysts combined their behavior to explain the Kline's basic analysis and knowledge points for users who have just come into contact with bitcoin.
以下为分享实录：
for shared recording:
K线图对新用户来说，可能会比较复杂，接下来我们就从单根k线和技术分析的本质来分析比特币走势！
K-lines may be more complicated for new users, and then we'll analyze the movement of bitcoin from the very essence of single k-line and technical analysis!
今天我们主要从什么是技术分析？、技术分析入门简介、仓位管理和止盈止损的概念、交易纪律等四部分来介绍。
Today we are going from four parts, namely, technical analysis, introduction to technical analysis, concept of position management and closure, and trade discipline.
第一部分，讲什么是技术分析，其实技术分析是指以市场行为为研究对象，以判断市场趋势，并跟随趋势的周期性变化来进行比特币或者股票以及一切其他金融衍生品交易决策的方法的总和！
然而技术分析有三大基础，第一，市场行为包容和消化一切信息，第二就是价格以趋势的方式波动，第三就是假定历史会重演。当然这个重演也是要根据不同的环境做不同分析，因时制宜！
But there are three main bases for technical analysis: first, market behaviour is inclusive and digestive of all information, second, prices fluctuate in a trended manner, and third, the assumption that history will repeat itself. Of course, this repeat will also be analysed differently, depending on the circumstances.
在K线图中看到的市场中的价格由哪些因素来决定？市场中的价格是由买卖双方进行博弈决定的，而历史成交的价格是由买卖双方形成价格共识的一个过程，我们研究K线就是研究买卖双方的行为。
What factors determine the price in the market that is seen in the K-line chart? The price in the market is determined by a game between the seller and the buyer, whereas the price of the historical deal is a process by which the seller and the buyer agree on the price, and we study the K-line by looking at the behaviour of the seller and the buyer.
第二部分，技术分析分析什么？
技术分析是一个市场行为，不是具体商品，只要充分竞争的市场都适用，同时适用于股票、商品期货等，而比特币的优势在于k线图上是连续性的，因为它是t+0，24小时交易的。
Technical analysis is a market act, not a specific commodity, as long as a fully competitive market applies to stocks, commodity futures, etc., while Bitcoin has the advantage of continuity on the k-line chart, as it is t+0 for 24-hour transactions.
那么它的前提是说在一个充分竞争的市场，所谓充分竞争的市场，即市场流动性足够好，深度足够深，交易量足够大，且不易被其他人为因素控制，这时才能体现技术分析有效性！
It then presupposes that in a fully competitive market, the so-called fully competitive market, where market liquidity is good enough, depth is deep enough, the volume of transactions is large enough and is not easily controlled by others, the validity of technical analysis is demonstrated.
上图为商品期货豆指数的日K线图，技术分析适用于各类有深度的市场。
The above figure is a Japanese-K-line map of the commodity futures bean index, and technical analysis applies to a variety of deep markets.
第三部分，?我们从单K线来开始了解技术分析的入门知识。
一根K线由四个部分即四个价格组成——最高价、最低价、开盘价、收盘价，如果收盘价大于它的开盘价我们称之为阳线，反之，收盘价小于开盘价我们称为阴线。当然，一些K线不是由四个价格组成，例如收盘价和开盘价最终是一个价格形成十字星或者T字头，本质来讲还是有四个价格来组成的，只是价格相等而已。
A Kline consists of four prices – the highest price, the lowest price, the opening price, the closing price, the closing price – if the closing price is greater than what we call the opening price. Conversely, the closing price is less than the opening price.
上图为火币网专业版K线图，其中包含一些基础指标。最上面白线，我们称之为七日均线，七日均线代表着过去七日内一个收盘价之和除以7，将各个点链接形成均线。下面一条黄线，我们称之为30日均线，代表过去30天之内收盘价之和除以30，将各个点连起来形成的均线。均线本质是人们在过去的一段周期内的平均交易成本。
The figure above is a professional K-line map of the gunnet, which contains some basic indicators. The white line at the top, which we call the seven-day average, represents the sum of one rounded price over the past seven days and divides the links by seven points. The yellow line below, which we call the 30-day average, represents the sum of the rounded over the past 30 days, dividing them by 30 points.
再往下的柱状图是单根K线对应的成交量，如果该图是日k线图，那对应的就是一天的成交量。当然，还有各种指标包括MACD指标、kdj指标等，作为初学者关键要理解K线的核心在于量和价，一定要清晰的明白这些指标仅作为验证和辅助。
Further down, the column chart is the equivalent of a single K line, and if it is a Japanesek line, it corresponds to a single day. There are, of course, various indicators, including MACD indicators, kdj indicators, etc., which, as a key to beginners’ understanding of the core of the K line, are the quantity and price, and it is important that they be clear and clear only as a test and as an aid.
接下来我们来分析如何定义目前的趋势，即上涨趋势、下跌趋势，横盘整理等。
Let us then analyse how to define current trends, i.e. upward trends, downward trends, cross-cutting, etc.
上图为上涨趋势图，找出它的高点和低点。它的低点的集合称之为波谷，高点的集合称之为波峰，我们把波谷连接起来，波峰也连接起来，如果波谷越来越高，波峰也越来越高，我们称之为上涨趋势。波谷连接成上涨趋势线，波峰链接成通道线，代表现在是一个震荡上行的趋势。
The figure above shows the upward trend and identifies its heights and lows. Its low point is known as the valley, its high point is known as the peak, we connect it, we connect it, and we call it the upward trend, if the valley is higher and the peaks are higher. The valley is connected to the upward trend, and the link to the dome is known as the upward trend.
上图为下跌趋势图，将波峰和波谷分别连接起来，如果波峰和波谷同时在降低，我们称之为下降趋势！
The figure above is a downward trend that links the peak and the valley, respectively, and if the peak and the valley are decreasing at the same time, we call it a downward trend!
为什么会同时降低呢？因为波谷在降低而波峰抬高的情况下，我们将它定义为宽幅震荡的走势。
Why is it going down at the same time? Because the valley, when it's down and its peak rises, we define it as the direction of a wide-band shock.
下面来看横盘整理的过程，本质是价格在一个价格区间内来回波动而没有形成实质的上涨或者下跌，这时候我们称之为矩形整即横盘整理。在此情况下，我们想要去操作的话，可以选择在下边线做多上边线做空，将止盈和止损的价格分别设在这这条线的上一档和下一档就可以了。
Looking at the process of cross-cutting, the essence of which is that prices fluctuate within a price range without substantial increases or decreases, we call it rectangular or cross-cutting. In this case, if we want to operate, we can choose to do more than one side of the bottom line, and just place the excess and the stop price at the top and next of the line, respectively.
如果对横盘震荡的趋势把握性不够，可以耐心等待突破或者跌破之后再进行顺势操作。
If there is not enough certainty about the trend of cross-discussion, it can wait patiently for a breakthrough or for a break to be followed by a smooth operation.
下面讲支撑位和阻力位概念。
The concepts of support and resistance are described below.
上图为比特币周K线图，一根K线代表的一周的价格走势和相对应的成交量。此图是15年比特币在3000点时的价格走势，3000是一个有力的支撑位，遇到3000会反弹。
The figure above is a bitcoin week K-line, and a K-line represents a one-week price movement and a corresponding trade-off. It is a 15-year Bitcoin price movement at 3000, 3,000 being a strong support position, and 3,000 will rebound.
大概几种情况，第一种假如在3000的时候做多，价格由3000涨到3100的过程中就有盈利。将价格由3000涨到3100再降回3000的过程，就会形成一个有效的支撑。
In a few cases, the first, if more than 3,000 times, is profitable when the price rises from 3,000 to 3100. The process of increasing the price from 3,000 to 3100 and falling back to 3,000 again provides an effective support.
第二种情况，如果3000点做空，价格在上涨的过程中就有浮亏，在忍受浮亏过程中，投资者都希望价格回到3000点，回补空单。其实空单止损就是变相买入，这时候会在3000形成第二个支撑。
In the second case, if the 3000 do not, the price will fall in the way it rises. In the process, investors expect the price to return to the 3,000.
第三种情况，假如一直横盘没有操作，那就耐心等待一个实质性的突破，在价格上涨的过程中，投资者会感到价格的上涨趋势，此时投资者一般都会考虑进仓，此时你需要第一次进仓买入，构成了第三方力量的一个支撑。
In the third case, if the drive has not been operational, patiently wait for a substantial breakthrough in which investors will feel price increases in the course of price increases, when investors usually take into account warehousing, and when you need to buy it for the first time, it forms part of the support of third-party forces.
当然，所谓的支撑位和阻力位的概念并不是有仅仅简单的这几个因素来组成的，以上仅为部分因素，其他还包括心理因素等也会造成支撑位和阻力位的变化。例如1月5日，价格涨到8000的过程中，大众普遍认为8000就是前期的阻力位，因为历史的高点位8000。此时我们会在犹豫的过程中会先考虑卖出，大部分人卖出则形成一个有效的阻力位。
Of course, the concept of so-called support and resistance is not made up of just a simple set of factors, which are only part of the equation, but also psychological factors, which can cause a change in support and resistance. On January 5, for example, when prices rose to 8,000, it was widely believed that 8,000 was the pre-existing resistance, because the historical high of 8,000.
众多被证实有效的交易系统也是建立在支撑和阻力的基础之上的，了解支撑位和阻力位的本质在交易过程中会非常有帮助。
Numerous proven trading systems are also based on support and resistance, and it would be very helpful to understand the nature of support and resistance in the course of the transaction.
前面我们已经说过趋势，知道趋势由一系列的高点和低点组成，在这里高点就是阻力而低点便是支撑，一个趋势如果要延续就必须突破（跌破）前一个阻力（支撑），这个不容辩驳的事实使得支撑和阻力成为了每一个交易员最注重的技术分析方法。
The indisputable fact that we have already said trends, knowing that trends consist of a series of highs and lows, which are supported by resistance and lows, that a trend, if it is to continue, must break through the previous resistance (support), makes support and resistance the most focused method of technical analysis for every trader.
那么支撑位、阻力位、各种K线图如何结合到实际运用中去呢？
So how does the support position, the resistance position, the various K-line maps fit into the actual application?
第一种结合大小周期来看图形判断交易，所谓的大小周期结合就说大周期来确定趋势，然后去跟随这个趋势去操作。假如你是一个日线图交易者，它相对的大周期就是周线图，如果现在周线图是上涨局势，而日线图，是一个横盘的趋势，并没有一个明显的上涨和下跌，那我就可以去试着去顺应大周期去做，找一个低点做多。这样做最大的好处就是顺势弱化风险。假如你通过看小时图进行交易，就把日线图作为大周期，如果日线图是下跌趋势，最好按照下跌趋势做空！
The first is to read graphic transactions in conjunction with a cycle of size, the so-called large cycle is to determine the trend and then follow the trend. If you are a day map dealer, the relative large cycle is a week chart, and if the week map is an upturning situation, and the sun map is a trend across the board, and there is no obvious up and down, then I can try to adapt to the big cycle, looking for a lower one. The greatest benefit is to reduce the risk. If you trade with the hour map, you take the day map as a large cycle, and if the sun map is a down trend, it is better to empty it according to the down trend!
然后第二点就是利用好支撑位和阻力位，根据自己的周期操作，支撑位做多，阻力位找做空的机会，把相对应的止盈和止损的价设置到支撑位和阻力位的上一档和下一档，这样可以有力的规划风险进行保护性止损。
The second point would then be to use good support and resistance positions, to operate according to their own cycles, to do more, to search for opportunities to empty them, and to set the corresponding excess and barrier-free prices to the upper and lower levels of the support and resistance positions, which would allow for robust planning of risk to protect against damage.
主持人：
Moderator:
高强老师的精彩分析告诉我们如何看趋势、如何看均线、如何看阻力位和支撑位。这其实也是对我们投资操作的提醒，不要看着涨就追，看着跌就抛。请问下高强老师，我们该怎么及时做止损止盈。
Mr. Gao's brilliant analysis tells us how to look at trends, how to look at average lines, how to look at resistance and support positions. It's also a reminder of our investment operations. Don't look up and down and throw. Ask Mr. Gao how to stop the loss and gain in time.
嘉宾：
Guest:
新手在交易过程中没有仓位的概念和止盈和止损概念。
In the course of the transaction, the newcomer did not have the concept of a warehouse and the concept of an end to the excess and loss.
所谓的仓位管理还是要根据每个人的风险承受能力和资金的使用方式来确定的，加仓的方式一定是倒金字塔加仓，越加越少，如果在盈利的过程中不考虑加仓方式，比如你刚开始买了1万，然后在盈利过程中又买了两万，此时一个简单的回调就可能损失掉你所有的利润，甚至产生亏损，
So-called warehouse management is determined by the risk tolerance of each individual and the way money is used, and the way to load it must be the inverted pyramids, the less it is, and if you don't think about loading it in the profit-making process, for example, when you start buying 10,000 and then buy another 20,000 in the profit-making process, a simple return may lose all your profits and even produce losses.
打击接下来交易信心。
Breaking down the next trade confidence.
止损的意义在于学会接受错误，不能一错再错，这是止损的最大的功能。50%的利润回撤表示，如果你有1万块钱的盈利回撤到5000时一定要无条件止。
The meaning of damage is to learn to accept mistakes and not to make mistakes again, which is the biggest function of damage cessation. 50% of profit recovery means that if you have a $10,000 profit return to 5000, you have to stop unconditionally.
主持人：
Moderator:
请问下高强老师，作为新手，在投资中，我们应该避免哪些问题呢？
May I ask what problems we should avoid in our investment as newcomers?
第一是没主见，喜欢在各种渠道打听小道消息。比如在微信群、QQ、各种论坛上听到所谓大神的讲解跟着操作，往往会得不偿失。其次就是在没有设置好止盈止损的情况下，盲目跟随。
The first is that they don't know what they're doing, and they like to hear small stories in various channels. For example, listening to the speeches of the Great Gods in micro-message, QQ, and various forums, they often do nothing. And the second is following them blindly when they are not set to stop the loss or gain or damage.
第二方是习惯在一个方向去操作。我们把做多和做空两个方面都学会了，就给自己增加了一倍的交易机会，这样就可以更合理的去操作，而不是在下跌的过程中只能去选择等待。
The second is the habit of doing things in one direction. By learning to do more and to do nothing, we double our chances of doing business, so that we can do it more rationally, rather than just waiting in the process of falling.
第三是满仓做单，新人容易满仓做单才能赚钱。这是一个误区，因为价格上涨和下跌的过程中，任何一个的回调都有可能将仓位的利润亏损掉。
The third is full of paperwork, and it is easy for a newcomer to make money. This is a mistake, because in the course of rising and falling prices, any return is likely to lose the profits of the warehouse.
第四是比特币24小时交易，价格瞬息万变，如果没有良好的盯盘时间可能会造成巨大的损失。第五是要有交易纪律，没有交易或交易不久的人建议就是先轻仓操作，运用所学的理论去操作，逐步扎实自己的一个理论，认识到理论的优势，然后如何克服自己的劣势，这样基本功扎实了之后再去操作就会更合理。
The fourth is that Bitcoin deals 24 hours a day, with rapidly changing prices, and with huge losses if there is no good stakeout time. The fifth is that there is a trade discipline, and those who do not have a deal or deal very soon suggest that they should operate lightly, apply the theories they have learned, build on one of their theories, recognize the advantages of the theory, and then overcome their disadvantages, so that it is more reasonable to do it when the basics are solid.
其实投资任何标的都会产生一个怀疑—信任—再怀疑——再信任过程，对比特币也一样。因此，我们需要全方位了解比特币，加强自己独立思考的能力。了解比特币区块链技术的革命性突破，了解比特币在现实世界的应用和未来的潜在应用，了解中心化货币的劣势和无法弥补的缺陷等。只有全面了解你所投资的产品，才能在疯狂中发现危险，在绝望里看见生机。因为指引你交易的并非是他人，而是你内心的坚持。
In fact, any investment target would create a suspicion – trust – and suspicion – of the process of re-trusting, as in the case of Bitcoin. So we need to know everything about bitcoin and strengthen our ability to think independently.
本文整理自火币大家说·第6期微信公开课，分享嘉宾是火币分析师高强。
strategist >. >. < > . > >.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
非常感谢您的报名，请您扫描下方二维码进入沙龙分享群。
非常感谢您的报名，请您点击下方链接保存课件。
点击下载金融科技大讲堂课件本文系未央网专栏作者发表，属作者个人观点，不代表网站观点，未经许可严禁转载，违者必究！
本文为作者授权未央网发表，属作者个人观点，不代表网站观点，未经许可严禁转载，违者必究！
本文版权归原作者所有，如有侵权，请联系删除。
注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论