“人在币圈混，三天饿九顿。”
"He's in the currency, he's hungry for nine meals in three days."
近日，比特币暴跌频频上演，引发币圈一片哀嚎，在北京时间周日（6月19日）凌晨报17998.1美元，这也是2020年12月以来比特币的最低价格。
In recent days, Bitcoin has slammed a lot of times, triggering a whirlwind of currency circles, and in Beijing Sunday (June 19), $17,998.1 a.m., which is also the lowest price in Bitcoin since December 2020.
随后短暂回弹，截至发稿前，比特币价格约在2万美元左右，离高点69000美元，已经跌去了70%。
This was followed by a brief rebound, with bitcoin prices of around $20,000, about US$ 69,000 high, which had fallen 70 per cent by the time of the release.
从6月8日至6月19日，比特币连续12天走低，更是创下了比特币从2009年诞生以来的最长连跌纪录。
From 8 June to 19 June, Bitcoin went down 12 days in a row, and created its longest series of drops since its birth in 2009.
随着比特币价格的频频下跌，加密货币的“恐惧与贪婪指数”也降至低值，最低降至为6，表明投资者已达到“极度恐惧”的程度。
With the frequency of falling bitcoin prices, 
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这并非历史最大跌幅
比特币自2012年来，共发生四次较大回落。
Bitcoin has experienced four major declines since 2012.
第一次大跌的谷底在2015年1月14日，比特币跌至197.4美元，相较于峰值的1124.76美元，跌幅超82%；
On 14 January 2015, the first-blown valley bottom fell to $197.4, which is over 82 per cent, compared with the peak of $1124.76;
第二次谷底在2018年12月15日，此时比特币价格为3239.23美元，与上一个峰值相比，跌幅达83%。
The second downfall was on 15 December 2018, when the price of Bitcoin was $3239.23, a decline of 83 per cent compared with the previous peak.
第三次在2021年7月20日，比特币从峰值63410.04美元跌至29860.38美元，仅用时97天，跌幅约53%；
For the third time, on 20 July 2021, Bitcoin fell from a peak of $63410.04 to $29860.38, only for 97 days, a decline of about 53 per cent;
第四次则是最近一次比特币跌破18000美元大关，跌至17998.1美元，相比上一次峰值，跌幅约73%。
The fourth was the last time that Bitcoin had fallen by $18,000, to $17,998.1, a decline of about 73 per cent compared to the previous peak.
因此，此次回落并非历史上最大的一次跌幅，最大的一次跌幅发生在2018年，比特币从峰值19339.92美元跌至3239.23美元，跌幅超83%。
As a result, the fall was not the largest in history, with the largest fall of 不过，比特币此次跳水速度快、基数大，同时伴随着连续12天的超长连跌天数，更容易引发市场震动。 However, the speed with which Bitcoin jumped and the base was large, coupled with a 12-day series of super-long drops, made it easier to trigger market shocks. “减半”与周期下跌 那么，是什么造成比特币过几年就会有一次周期呢？ So, what caused Bitcoin to have a cycle in a few years? 我们这里不讲什么复杂具体的相关因素，比如经济不行啦，加息啊，泡沫破灭啊…… We don't talk about complex and specific factors, such as economic failure, interest hikes, bubble bursting... 而是说一下比特币自带的一个规则，叫“减半”。 but to say a rule of Bitcoin's own belt called "50-50." 所谓“减半”，即每产生210,000个区块后，将发生区块奖励的“减半事件”，即授予矿工挖矿奖励的比特币数量减半，这其中的时间大概是四年。 The so-called “half by half”, or “half by half” of block incentives for each 210,000 blocks, or the amount of bitcoins awarded to miners for mining, would be halved for approximately four years. 2012年、2016年和2020年，比特币区块奖励已经发生了三次减半，挖矿奖励已从最初的50枚比特币降至6.25枚比特币。比特币每次减半都会降低新比特币进入供应的速度，直到 2140年不再有新比特币被创造出来。? In 2012, 2016 and 2020, the Bitcoin block incentive was halved three times, from the original 50 bitcoins to 6.25 bitcoins. Every time the bitcoin is halved, it reduces the speed at which new bitcoin enters supply until 2140 when no new bitcoin is created. 那么“减半”和大跌有什么关系呢？ 减半事件本身很少有立即的价格反应。因为这是一个由市场定价的已知事件，但可以看出的是，比特币价格都在减半前后的某个时间段开始牛市起点，也在下一个“减半”到来前一段时间会出现较大幅度的回落。 the halving event itself has very little immediate price response. This is a known event of market pricing, but it can be seen that 根据数据可以发现，在最近的第三个减半周期内，比特币价格峰值出现的时间与“减半事件”发生时的间隔，相比前两个周期更长了（意味着牛市的时间很长），而下跌却来得更快更急。 According to the data, it can be observed that during the recent third halving cycle, bitcoin peaks occurred at a longer time than at the time of the “half-threshold event” (meaning long time in the cattle market) and fell faster than before. 而且，截至目前，这一周期内比特币已经出现过两轮周期。 and, to date, Bitcoin has had two cycles during this cycle. 在第一个减半周期内，比特币也出现过两次冲高现象。 in the first halving cycle, Bitcoin also experienced two surges. 但在第一个减半周期内的第二次冲高并没有突破压力位，导致那一次冲高依旧处于熊市中。所以相比第一个减半周期，此轮周期的冲高势头明显更加强劲。 but the second jump in the first halving cycle did not break the pressure position, which led to it remaining in the Bear City. So this cycle is clearly stronger than the first halving cycle. 另外，此次大跌也打破了比特币自2009年以来的一个“传统”，即在之前的熊市中，比特币从未跌破上一周期的峰值价格。 In addition, the fall broke a “traditional” of Bitcoin since 2009, that is, 此轮熊市的最低值17998.1美元，低于上一轮减半周期的峰值19339.92美元，这是在之前的熊市中未出现的现象。 The minimum value of this bear market is US$ 17998.1, which is below the peak of US$ 19339.92 for the previous round of halving, 比特币大跌后，几乎都是进入横盘震荡，在下一次减半周期开始前后又再次进入牛市。 After Bitcoin fell, almost all of 而比特币的下一次“减半”将发生在2024年，截至今年6月22日，距离比特币减半剩余区块数为98058，已经不足210,000的一半。 The next “half” of Bitcoin will take place in 2024, and as of 22 June this year, the number of remaining bitcoin cut by half is 98058, which is less than half of 2110,000. 问题是，在这一段时间里，比特币会进入漫长的熊市吗？还是说会出现第三个牛市。 The question is, will Bitcoin enter a long bear market for some time, or will there be a third cow market? Infrastructure Capital Management首席投资官Jay Hatfield表示，“比特币的2万美元水平是一个重要的技术水平，跌破该水平可能会引发更多追加保证金的要求，导致被迫平仓。随着美联储流动性驱动的泡沫完全破裂，比特币重返疫情前的水平，今年可能会跌破1万美元关口。” According to Chief Investment Officer Jay Hatfield, “the 20,000-dollar level of Bitcoin is an important technology level, and a drop in this level could trigger demands for additional guarantees, forcing it to level down. may fall back to pre-epidemiological levels this year as the Federal Reserve's liquidity-driven bubble breaks completely.” 当然，也有人对此依旧乐观。? because of the “50-per-cent” rule of Bitcoin, investors have an opportunity to take advantage of the expected pattern of increase, but by historical data there is a reduction in the huge benefits of halving each time. And, The impact of the price of bitcoins is not a single factor as crypto-currencys move towards mainstream. is certain that the regulatory steps of each country will be accelerated and the impact on bitcoin dynamics will remain to be observed. For ordinary investors, this also means bitcoin's market risk will be increasing. （数据说明：本文比特币的价格为美元，数据通过开源API CoinCap2.0采集，数据仅供参考。数据爬取时间为2012年1月1日00时00分至2022年6月20日00时00分，间隔时间为1天。受API本身限制，部分数据存在丢失，但对整体趋势无影响。） (Data description: Bitcoin prices are in United States dollars and the data are collected through the open-source API CoinCap 2.0. Data crawls between 0000 hours on 1 January 2012 and 0000 hours on 20 June 2022, with a one-day interval. Some data are missing, subject to API's own limitations, but without impact on overall trends.
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