美国财经媒体CNBC周四刊文指出，全球黄金价格有望在2024年升至历史最高点，原因是利率不断下降，以及对经济衰退的担忧加剧了黄金作为避险资产的地位。
According to the U.S. financial media CNBC on Thursday, global gold prices are expected to rise to historical peaks in 2024, owing to declining interest rates and concerns about the recession that have exacerbated the status of gold as a hedge asset.
该媒体援引一些市场分析人士的话预测，现货金价可能触及甚至超过2020年8月创下的2072.5美元/盎司的盘中最高纪录，有望在2024年达到2500美元/盎司（约合人民币637元/克）。
The media, citing some market analysts, predicted that spot gold prices could reach or exceed the highest record of $2072.5 per ounce created in August 2020 and are expected to reach $2,500 per ounce in 2024 (approximately $637 per gram).
利率下降，黄金吃香？
众所周知，黄金作为一种避险资产，其价格与地缘局势、利率变动、通货膨胀、供需关系等因素密切相关。
It is well known that gold, as a hedge asset, is priced in close connection with geophysical situations, changes in interest rates, inflation, supply and demand.
具体而言，地缘局势紧张时，黄金往往被视为安全避风港；而当利率上升时，人们对黄金的需求会下降，因为债券等另类投资会变得更有吸引力，回报也更高；通胀上升时，人们会寻求持有实物资产，黄金会相对“吃香”……需要注意的是，上述因素往往相互作用共同决定金价。
In particular, gold is often regarded as a safe haven in times of geographical tension; when interest rates rise, demand for gold falls because alternative investments, such as bonds, will become more attractive and yield higher returns; when inflation rises, people will seek to hold physical assets, and gold will be relatively “coloured”... It is important to note that these factors often interact with each other in determining gold prices.
近年来，全球金价经历了一段震荡时期。2022年2月乌克兰危机爆发后，金价飙升至2069美元/盎司的高点，随后在2022年9月逐步回落，跌至接近1600美元/盎司。
In recent years, global gold prices have gone through a period of shock. Following the outbreak of the crisis in Ukraine in February 2022, gold prices skyrocketed to a high of $2069 per ounce, and then fell gradually in September 2022, falling close to $1,600 per ounce.
今年3月，在美国硅谷银行倒闭后，金价强烈反弹，突破2000美元/盎司关口达到峰值，但不久后又再次“失去光泽”，一度徘徊在1925美元/盎司一线。8月11日的国际黄金价格为1915.33美元/盎司。
In March of this year, after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States, gold prices rebounded strongly, reaching a peak of US$ 2,000/ounce, but soon again “lost the light” at $1925/ounce. The international gold price on August 11 was $1915.33/ounce.
尽管目前金价仍在2000美元/盎司以下徘徊，但多位接受CNBC采访的分析师看好其涨势，认为金价可能打破2020年8月创下的盘中最高纪录。
Although the gold price is still below US$ 2,000/ounce, several analysts interviewed by the CNBC have taken good note of its upward trend, arguing that the gold price is likely to break the record record in the cut-off in August 2020.
北美领先的证券公司道明证券全球大宗商品策略主管梅利克说：“我确实认为金价将在2023年末、2024年初突破2100美元/盎司。”他将乐观情绪归因于美联储紧缩周期可能暂停。
The leading North American securities firm, Doming Bond, the head of the global commodity strategy, Merrick, said: “I do believe that gold prices will break by $2,100 in late 2023 and early 2024.” He attributed optimism to the possible suspension of the Fed’s austerity cycle.
上月底，美联储进行了去年3月以来第11次加息，累计加息幅度达525个基点，以遏制高通胀。不少经济学家认为，7月的加息是美联储本轮加息周期的最后一次。
At the end of last month, the Federal Reserve carried out its eleventh interest increase since March last year, with a cumulative increase of 525 basis points to contain high inflation. According to many economists, the July interest increase was the last of the Federal Reserve’s current interest-raising cycle.
“我看好黄金，因为我相信美联储将改变目前的限制性政策模式。我相信这将在2%的通胀目标达到之前发生。”梅利克表示。
“I take good note of the gold, because I believe that the Fed will change the current restrictive policy model. I believe that this will happen before the 2% inflation target is met.” Merrick says.
担忧衰退，“唱多”金价
除了因为美联储可能暂停紧缩周期而“唱多”金价，一些分析师还因为担忧全球经济衰退而看好黄金。
In addition to “single” gold prices because the Fed may have suspended the cycle of austerity, some analysts are also looking at gold for fear of a global recession.
美国对冲基金Livermore Partners创始人诺伊豪泽预计，到2024年底金价将达到2500美元/盎司。这比目前金价高出26%以上。
The founder of the US hedge fund Livermore Partners, Noir Hauser, expects the gold to reach $2,500 per ounce by the end of 2024. This is more than 26 per cent higher than the current gold price.
“这很大程度与经济衰退力量可能在今年晚些时候开始占据主导地位，并在2024年加剧这一事实有关。”诺伊豪泽说。
“This is to a large extent related to the fact that the forces of economic recession may begin to dominate later this year and intensify in 2024.” Noi Hauser said.
这位分析师预计，随着通胀率降至3%至5%之间，未来几年全球经济将持续滞胀。在衰退和滞胀等经济不确定时期，黄金作为一种可靠的保值工具往往表现良好。
The analyst expects that the global economy will continue to stagnate in the coming years as inflation drops to between 3 and 5 per cent. Gold tends to perform well as a reliable value-serving tool in times of economic uncertainty, such as recession and stagnation.
总部位于温哥华的惠顿贵金属公司首席执行官斯茅沃德也表示，非常有信心在未来几年内看到金价升至2500美元/盎司。“任何类型的衰退都将对黄金有利。”
The Chief Executive Officer of Wheaton Precious Metals, based in Vancouver, has also expressed great confidence in seeing gold prices rise to $2,500 per ounce over the next few years. "Any kind of recession will be good for gold."
大华银行预测，金价将创下新纪录，但要到2024年下半年。金价涨至2100美元/盎司的时间，则可能出现在2024年第二季度。
The Dahua Bank predicts that gold prices will reach a new record, but only in the second half of 2024. The price rises to $2,100 per ounce, possibly in the second quarter of 2024.
购金节奏，依然强劲
此外，市场分析人士指出，当前各国央行普遍认为，增加黄金作为储备资产的前景略好于去年，且黄金价格上涨周期并未结束，保持购金节奏是大势所趋。 Moreover, market analysts point out that there is a general consensus among central banks that the prospect of increasing gold as a reserve asset is slightly better than last year, that the cycle of rising gold prices has not ended and that maintaining the purchasing pace is a major trend. 大华银行市场策略主管王君豪认为，伴随着消费者对黄金的需求，央行对黄金的购买一直“保持强劲”。他表示，随着中国和印度经济企稳及零售支出回升，两国的实物黄金珠宝需求也有所回升。 According to Wang Junhao, the head of the Bank’s market strategy, the central bank’s purchases of gold have been “maintaining strong” along with consumer demand for gold. He said that, as China’s and India’s economies stabilized and retail spending recovered, the demand for gold jewellery in kind in both countries recovered. 花旗银行在7月一份报告中表示，中国零售黄金需求在2023年保持弹性。该行大宗商品策略师表示，中国第一季度黄金珠宝需求“接近200吨，是2015年以来最强劲的季度”。该行还预计，今年中国的珠宝需求将超过700吨，同比增长22%。 In a July report, Citibank stated that China’s retail gold demand remained resilient in 2023. The bank’s bulk commodity strategist said that China’s gold jewellery demand for the first quarter was “close to 200 tons, the strongest since 2015.” The bank also predicted that China’s jewellery demand would exceed 700 tons this year, an increase of 22 per cent over the previous year. 贵金属交易公司MKS PAMP金属策略主管希尔斯表示，部分地区的实物黄金需求已经恢复，央行的黄金需求依然强劲。她指出，新兴市场央行继续去美元化，在西方进一步制裁的情况下利用黄金作为替代选择。据报道，金砖国家正在考虑从美元转向一种由黄金支持的新货币。 According to Hills, the head of the precious metal trading company MKS PAMP metal strategy, the demand for gold in kind has recovered in some areas, and central banks’ demand for gold remains strong. She noted that emerging-market central banks continue to de-dollarize, using gold as an alternative in the context of further Western sanctions. 不过，在一部分人士看涨金价的同时，也有一部分人士提醒，鉴于目前国际政治经济形势仍然复杂多变，金价轨迹可能是不确定的。 However, while some view the increase in gold prices, others caution that, given the still complex and volatile international political and economic situation, the gold price trajectory may be uncertain. 芝加哥交易所集团认为，金价走高和走低的前景会比较平衡——假如美元走软，可能为金价提供支撑；但假如美国和全球经济继续显示弹性，或者美国避免衰退，那么金价上扬就会动力不足。 The Chicago Exchange Group believes that the prospect of higher and lower gold prices would be more balanced — if the dollar were soft, it might support gold prices; but if the United States and the global economy continued to show resilience, or if the United States avoided recession, the rise in gold prices would not be sufficiently motivated. 市场人士建议，黄金投资者应当均衡地考虑投资配比，尤其在考虑“追高”时更应小心谨慎，稳妥决策。 Marketers have suggested that gold investors should consider investment matching in a balanced manner, especially when considering “high-high-high-highness” with greater caution and sound decision-making. （编辑邮箱：ylq@jfdaily.com） (ed. mailbox: ylq@jfdaily.com)
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