【比推每日市场动态】BTC走势”极度无聊“，反弹或需等到后半年
BTC's movement is extremely boring, and it's going to have to bounce until the second half of the year.
原文作者：Mary Liu
Original author: Mary Liu
原文来源：BitpushNews
Source: BitpushNews.
密歇根大学五月份消费者报告差于预期，更广泛的消费者指标触及六个月来的最低水平，该报告披露，未来一年通胀预期从 3.2% 升至 3.5%，与新冠大流行前的数值相比仍处于较高水平。美联储似乎处于“进退两难”的境地，要在适应经济放缓和对抗不断上升的通胀预期之间做出选择。该报告发布后，风险资产抹平涨势。
In May, the University of Michigan’s consumer report fell short of expectations, with broader consumer indicators reaching the lowest level in six months, revealing that inflation is expected to rise from 3.2% to 3.5% in the coming year, still at a higher level than it was before the epidemic. The Fed appears to be in a “difficult” position, with a choice between adapting to the economic slowdown and confronting rising inflation expectations.
比推数据显示，比特币在周五午盘附近经历了大幅抛售，从 63,000 美元跌至 60,155 美元的低点，此后一直在 61,000 美元下方盘整。
The comparison data show that Bitcoin went through a large sale near the Friday noon plate, falling from $63,000 to a low of $60,155 and has since been rounded up below $61,000.
截至撰写本文时，BTC 交易价格为 60500 美元，24 小时下跌 3.45%。
At the time of writing, the BTC transaction price was $60,500, a decline of 3.45 per cent in 24 hours.
市值前 200 大山寨币跌多涨少，仅有 20 种山寨币实现上涨。Akash Network(AKT) 表现最好，上涨 14.6%，交易价格为 5.93 美元，其次是Jito(JTO) 上涨 6.4%，ZetaChain(ZETA) 上涨 5.3%。ssv.network(SSV) 跌幅最大，下跌 17.5%，cat in a dogs world (MEW) 下跌 11.6%，AIOZ Network (AIOZ) 下跌 8.2%。
Akash Network (AKT) performed the best, rising by 14.6 per cent, with a trade price of $5.93, followed by Jito (JTO) by 6.4 per cent, Zeta Chain (ZETA) by 5.3 per cent. Sv. Network (SSV) experienced the largest decline, with 17.5 per cent, cat in a dogs world (MEW) by 11.6 per cent, AIOZ Network (AIOZ) by 8.2 per cent.
目前加密货币整体市值为2.25万亿美元，比特币的主导率为53.2%。
The overall market value of the encrypted currency is currently $2.25 trillion, with a dominant rate of 53.2 per cent in Bitcoins.
股市涨跌互现，道琼斯指数连续第八个交易日上涨，收盘上涨 0.32%，而标准普尔指数上涨 0.16%，纳斯达克指数持平。
The stock market rose and fell, and the Dow Jones Index rose for the eighth consecutive day, closing by 0.32 per cent, while the Standard and Poor's Index rose by 0.16 per cent, and the NASDAQ Index was flat.
比特币正处于‘无聊至死’阶段
{\bord0\shad0\alphaH3D}Bitcoin is in the {\cHFFFFFF}{\cH00FFFF} {\cHFFFFFF}{\cH00FFFF} {\cHFFFFFF}{\cH00FFFF} {\cHFFFFFF}{\cH00FFFF} {\cHFFFFFF}{\cH00FFFF} {\cHFFFFFF}{\cH00FF00} {\cH00FFFF00}
加密货币对冲基金 Capriole Investment创始人Charles Edwards在 X 平台中表示：“比特币正处于‘无聊至死’阶段”。
Charles Edwards, founder of the encrypt currency hedge fund Capriole Investment, said on platform X: “bitcoin is in the `deep-to-death' phase”.
他解释说，这一盘整期可能会持续一到六个月，在此期间，比特币将在低波动性的区间内波动，直到市场参与者失去耐心。他补充说，在盘整结束之前，市场情绪将是最负面的。
He explained that this round could last for a period of one to six months, during which bitcoin would fluctuate between low-volatility compartments until the market participants lost patience. He added that market sentiment would be the most negative until the completion of the round.
Edwards说：“当你对横盘震荡感到足够厌倦时，常见的症状将包括认为减半已被定价，牛市已经结束，并在底部抛售买入股票，这种情绪和空头将在大涨之前达到顶峰。”
Edwards said: “When you are tired enough of the hysteria, common symptoms will include the belief that half of the price has been set, that the cattle market has ended and that stocks will be sold at the bottom and that the mood and void will peak before the boom.”
Plume Network首席执行官兼联合创始人 Chris Yin 表示：“过去几周一直在约 60,000 到 64,000 之间，总体趋势似乎是向下整合。因此，从短期来看，我们会看到，但比特币很可能会继续下滑一段时间，这是很自然的。在比特币减半以及几个月的价格上涨之后，自然会出现一些冷静，特别是在美联储尚未大幅降息的情况下。”
According to Chris Yin, Chief Executive Officer and co-founder of PlumeNetwork, “the general trend seems to have been downwards for the last few weeks between about 60,000 and 64,000. So, in the short term, we see that bitcoin is likely to continue to decline for some time, which is natural. After halving Bitcoin and the price increases of several months, there will naturally be some calm, especially if the Fed has not yet significantly reduced interest rates.”
Yin表示，对降息的过度预期意味着“市场有点超前于现实，所以自然会出现一些回调。此外，全球宏观不稳定也是一个问题，“在全球冲突不断增加的情况下”，这导致人们更加恐慌和观望。更不用说所有的井都注意到SEC主席Gensler继续在加密货币领域采取执法行动”。
In addition, global macro-stabilization is a problem, “in the face of growing global conflicts,” leading to increased panic and expectation. Not to mention all wells note that SEC Chairman Gensler continues to enforce laws in the area of cryptography.
Chris Yin表示，人们真正需要关注的是宏观环境。
Chris Yin stated that there was a real need to focus on the macro-environment.
首先，投资者正在等待经济数据改善并发出降息信号，美国通胀一直居高不下，因此当通胀降温时，杰罗姆·鲍威尔将大幅削减利率。一旦发生这种情况，相关指标将出现逆转–BTC ETF 流入数据好转，交易者会放心地再次注入流动性，从而推动BTC价格上涨。
First, investors are waiting for economic data to improve and send a signal of interest-reduction, and inflation in the United States has remained high, so that when inflation cools, Jerome Powell will cut interest rates sharply. Once this happens, the indicators will be reversed – BTC ETF inflows will improve, and traders will be reassured to inject liquidity again, thus pushing BTC prices up.
与此同时，即将到来的 11 月美国大选将是一个重要指标，因为特朗普一直表示他对加密货币持积极态度，而拜登政府显然对这一资产类别非常消极，Yin表示：“如果特朗普获胜，风险资产价格利好，如果拜登获胜，事情走向就会趋于保守。”
At the same time, the upcoming United States general elections in November will be an important indicator, as Trump has consistently expressed his positive attitude towards encrypted currency, and the Biden administration has clearly been very negative about this asset class, in which Yin has stated: “If Trump wins, risk asset prices are good, and if Biden wins, things tend to be conservative.”
“底部可能已经接近”
分析公司 Santiment表示，底部可能已经临近。
Analysis company Santiago said that the bottom might be close.
Santiment周五在X平台表示， “交易员对比特币最新的回调表现出‘逢低买入’的兴趣。” “一般来说，人群缺乏信心是价格接近底部的强烈信号。”
As Santiago said on platform X on Friday, “the latest round-up of the trader Bitcoin shows an interest in `low buying'.” “In general, the lack of confidence on the part of the crowd is a strong signal that prices are close to the bottom.”
Bitfinex分析师在周五的一份报告中指出，比特币近期的疲软发生在美元飙升、降息预期减弱的背景下，并表示这种平静可能会持续到初夏。
In a Friday report, Bitfinex analysts noted that the recent weakness of Bitcoin had occurred against the backdrop of a sharp rise in the United States dollar and the expected decline in interest rates, and indicated that this calm might continue until early summer.
分析师表示：“我们预计，在低波动环境下，市场短期内仍将存在不确定性，直到 6 月份实际缩减 QT（量化紧缩政策）为止。”
According to the analyst: “We anticipate that the market will remain uncertain in the short term in a low-volatility environment until the actual reduction of QT (quantified austerity policy) in June.”
美联储宣布计划从下个月开始遏制资产负债表缩减的步伐，这将影响美元的流动性，从而有利于对全球流动性环境敏感的加密货币等风险资产。Bitfinex报告称：“在联邦公开市场委员会和就业市场数据之后，比特币的持续走强和区间低点的恢复，以及美元的同时疲软，是一个新迹象，这将为我们在第三季度至第四季度对比特币的非常看涨做好准备”。返回搜狐，查看更多
The Fed's announcement that it plans to contain balance sheet cuts from next month will affect the liquidity of the dollar and thereby contribute to risk assets such as encrypted currencies that are sensitive to the global liquidity environment. Bitfinex reports that “after the Federal Open Market Board and employment market data, the continued strongness of Bitcoin and the recovery of the low point between the zones, as well as the weakening of the dollar, is a new sign that will prepare us for the extraordinary increase in Bitcoin in the third and fourth quarters of the year.” returned to search for more
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